by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 9 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 10 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 10 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 13 - 5 - 2 - 9
RACE 3: MINI P (#7)
Course Correction is likely to go favored here for Chad Brown despite losing as the favorite in two consecutive starts. This colt really had no excuse to lose back on May 6, when he got a good ground-saving trip and had no answer once the closers made their moves in the lane. He didn’t fare much better last time on July 30, as he again got into a contending position but had no kick over the final furlong. I think this colt is a little overrated, and I’m against him here. I prefer Rhode Island, who beat Course Correction last time they met on May 6. This horse needed his first couple of races at Gulfstream, but he really put things together when stretched out to today’s 10-furlong distance. The problem is that he hasn’t been seen for more than four months, and it’s never a good sign to see connections stop on a runner who was seemingly in good form. I’m taking a shot against both of these colts with Mini P. This Irish-bred runner makes his first start in this country after a pair of efforts in England to start his career. He actually ran very well in his career debut at Newbury. He was reserved in the back half of a 16-horse field, well off the early lead. He made a strong stretch bid to challenge the leader in the lane but was turned away in the final sixteenth. The 97 Timeform Rating that he was assigned for that performance was an encouraging start to his career. They got a little too ambitious in trying a Group 3 off that effort, and the horse reacted badly. Now he makes his U.S. debut for Christophe Clement, who can certainly prepare a foreign shipper to win in this country. I thought he worked very well over the dirt surface in his drill on Sept. 15, and I wouldn’t be shocked to discover that this colt is just better than his American rivals.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 5: TOGA (#10)
Cross Multiply may go off as the favorite off his solid runner-up finish at this level last time. He made the first move that day and was just run down late by One More Tom, who was dropping out of tougher spots. Gary Contessa has done a good job of getting this horse into career form, and he seems to be more adept on the dirt these days. I’m using him, but I think we saw him reach his ceiling last time, and there are others to consider at better prices. Devilry is going to attract some support off the trainer switch to Brad Cox. However, he’s getting his horse from Kiaran McLaughlin, who does a very good job, and he really didn’t show much in his three appearances last year. He’s one whom I think you have to use, but he’s also going to take money, and I’m just not sure that he really has much ability. I’m taking a shot with Toga. This gelding was claimed out of his debut by Robertino Diodoro and now drops slightly in class. That Aug. 4 maidenclaiming heat was actually somewhat tough for the level, and all of the dirt races that day were dominated by horses racing off the inside. Therefore, Toga was compromised by having to duel inside of a rival on the worst part of the track. While he completely shut down in the lane, I thought he had a right to get tired after such a taxing opening three furlongs. Diodoro now adds blinkers for his second start, and I like that he’s drawn outside this time. He needs to improve, but he has a right to take a step forward.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,4,9
RACE 6: POSHSKY (#8)
Expected Ruler will go off as the favorite as he makes his first start off the claim for trainer Mike Stidham. While this barn has had success claiming horses in the past, it has not had particularly strong results with claims in recent years. If he is able to get Expected Ruler to reproduce his recent form, he is probably going to win this race, but there are some question marks. He was ridden very tentatively last time after he seemingly ran out of gas at the quarter pole. He had a right to get tired after contesting fast fractions, but I still didn’t love the optics of the final quarter-mile. He’s formidable, but there are some others to consider. War Stroll finished just behind him when they last met on July 21. The two-turn-mile distance may have been too far for him, and he could never get involved going 5 1/2 furlongs last time. He may appreciate getting back to seven furlongs given that he’s won over this trip at Belmont in the past. I’m definitely using him, but my top pick is Poshsky. For whatever reason, this gelding has been given very few opportunities to run on turf since moving to New York, even though that appears to be his preferred surface. He clearly appreciated the turnback in distance on the main track last time, as he responded with a five-length win. It’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to maintain that form here, but Gary Contessa has been enjoying a strong past few weeks, and I think this is the perfect distance for him to try as he switches back to the grass.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,7,9
RACE 8: PATTERNRECOGNITION (#6)
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway is likely to go off as the favorite here as he makes just his second start of 2018. I have mixed feelings about this runner. If he runs back to that defining score from last November, he’s very likely to win this race. However, his surrounding form, even from last year, does not do much for me. I know that Catalina Cruiser, who defeated him last time, is a very talented horse, but there really wasn’t much else in that field. I think this runner is vulnerable at a short price, so I’m looking elsewhere. Sunny Ridge also brings some solid credentials to this race, as he was bet down to 7-1 in the Grade 1 Woodward earlier this month. I thought Irad Ortiz have him a great ride in that spot, and he ultimately just couldn’t see out the trip. The turnback to one mile appears to suit him, but only his State Dinner effort two back makes him formidable in here. His other 2018 efforts are merely mediocre, so I don’t fully trust him. There is not much early speed in this race, and Pace Projector is predicting is predicting that No Dozing and Patternrecognition should be able to control affairs up front. No Dozing has returned in career form this season. In his first start as a gelding, he exploded with a fast win at Saratoga in July, and his connections understandably took a shot in the Grade 1 Forego off that effort. His trip didn’t quite work out that day as he was floated extremely wide around the far turn, but he nevertheless ran on well late. This distance suits him and this is a slightly easier spot. I’m using him heavily, but my top pick is Patternrecognition. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve never been this runner’s biggest fan. I haven’t loved that he’s been stuck in his allowance conditions for over a year, and he’s tallied more second-place finishes than wins. On the other hand, he’s proven himself to be very reliable, as he almost always runs a fast speed figure – win or lose. He did get a favorable trip last time, but I still thought he was game to dig in and fend off Phi Beta Express. Some may question the stretch-out to a mile given that he’s primarily sprinted, but his win at this distance last fall at Aqueduct was his best effort to date. I think he’s going to work out the right trip and he’s one of a few horses in this race that appears to be in career form right now.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL