PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   8 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 7 - 9
Race 7:   1 - 10 - 11 - 12
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 9:   4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 10:   12 - 9 - 5 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: CELESTINE (#1)
Sassy Little Lila is the horse to beat based on her runner-up finish in the Just a Game. I'm not going to hold her effort in the Fourstardave against her since she was simply overmatched against that field of males, especially given that the winner, World Approval, has turned into a world-class miler. She can win here, but I don't think she has any great edge on this field. After all, she was allowed to set a very slow pace in the Just a Game, and her prior efforts give her a chance but don't make her particularly formidable. I'm trying to beat her with Celestine, who was no match for Sassy Little Lila in the Just a Game last time. However, her performance that day was so poor that I find it hard to believe. Prior to that, she had been consistently running races solid enough to beat this field. She loves Belmont Park, and a one-turn mile is perfect for her. Furthermore, she figures to be a square price coming off that lone poor effort.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5 with ALL

RACE 6: RAPPEL (#5)
I suppose the conversation has to start with Spectrolite, who does figure to be the controlling speed in this race. However, I think he faces a much tougher assignment here after beating weaker claiming and starter-allowance fields in his prior two starts. A few runners are coming out of the Aug. 31 race at this level won by Grand Sky. I thought that Somekindofmagician probably ran the second-best race that day considering the dynamics of that race and his wide trip. However, he needs to improve again to win this race. I think this is a spot where you're supposed to look for some value, so I'm taking a shot with Rappel. His only win came at this six-furlong distance, but he's raced exclusively in longer races since then, often against tougher company. I think he'll appreciate the slight class relief here, and I'm intrigued by the turnback considering how well he ran going shorter early in his career.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,8,9

RACE 7: UP THE ANTE (#1) / THUNDER MESA (#10)
With few proven turf performers in this field, I'm open to considering first-time starters and horses trying turf for the first time. Of the debut runners, the one who interests me most is Up the Ante. Overall, Christophe Clement has better numbers with 2-year-old firsters on turf at Saratoga than he does at Belmont, but I still think this horse is intriguing. He worked a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the OBS sale and looked like a turf horse in doing so. His dam was actually a dirt sprinter, but she is a half-sister to turf graded stakes winner Dominus, who was by this colt's sire, Smart Strike. In addition to him, I want to use first-time turfer Thunder Mesa at an even bigger price. His dam was best on turf, placing in a couple of Grade 2 stakes on that surface. She hasn't been the best producer, but one of this colt's siblings did win Group 3 turf events in Germany. He sold for a hefty sum back in April and may require the move to grass to deliver on that potential.

Win: 1
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 1,10 with 1,2,4,10,11,12

RACE 8: FOCUS GROUP (#2)
Gauguin has run the fastest races and obviously handles this distance. He's a deserving favorite here, but nothing about him really excites me. If none of the others steps forward, he is probably going to win, but I think there's at least one runner in this field who has significant room for improvement. Focus Group was visually impressive when winning his maiden at Saratoga two back. He clearly relished the stretch-out in distance to 11 furlongs and came with a powerful stretch run to close down the leaders late. His first start against winners looks very disappointing at first glance, but he never was given a proper chance that day. The Saratoga turf course was especially kind to runners with inside position at that point in the meet, and he was wide and rated well off a glacial early pace that held together. He's going to appreciate getting more ground to work with this time, and I don't think we've seen the best of this colt yet.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,8,9,10
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4 with 3,4,8,9,10

RACE 9: DIVINING ROD (#4)
Some may view this as Sharp Azteca's race to lose given his recent form and superior speed figures, but I think he's going to face a serious challenge from Divining Rod. This Arnaud Delacour trainee looked like a different horse with the addition of blinkers in last year’s Cigar Mile, giving the highly regarded Connect all he could handle through the stretch before just losing by a head. He was given plenty of time off after that effort but looked just as sharp in winning his 2017 debut at Laurel, where he sprinted through the stretch to a facile score while under a hand ride. He couldn't quite keep pace with a top sprinter like Drefong last time in the Forego, but now he stretches out to the more appropriate distance of one mile. I think he's quick enough to stay within range of Sharp Azteca early, and he is a real threat to pull off the very minor upset.

Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,6 with 5