by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 9 - 5 - 10 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 11: 8 - 10 - 2 - 3
RACE 1: OUR SUPER NOVA (#5)
Cash Offer figures to be the favorite in this race as she steps up in class. She has yet to finish out of the exacta in 6 starts against New York-breds. The 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that most recent victory might put her in the winner’s circle even against this tougher bunch, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, the waters get a bit deeper here, since she was beating a very weak field to break through that N1X condition last time. She obviously has plenty of speed, but she tends to get a bit leg-weary in that last furlong. The problem with this race is that the rest of this group is very difficult to separate. My top pick is Our Super Nova, who has really improved this season for Charlton Baker. She lost at this level three times earlier in the year, but she had some excuses in those races. She closed well to be second behind the vastly improved Carrera Cat two back and then last time she was somewhat compromised by a slow pace that favored the eventual winner. She should appreciate the slight stretch-out in distance and Charlton Baker’s runners have been performing well over the past few weeks following a slow start to the summer. I could also include a horse like Maiden Beauty, who owns competitive speed figures and may respond well to the turnback.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with ALL
RACE 3: SWAMP RAT (#7)
There appears to be plenty of speed in this race, as Quarky, Power Player, and Everylovesjames all do their best work on the front end. Everyonelovesjames would be a handful in this race if he were able to run back to his solid fourth-place finish in the West Point last time, However, he got to the front and was able to open up a clear early advantage that day, and that’s unlikely to happen this time with Quarky in the field. I’d use him defensively. Power Player is a little interesting on the turnback in distance considering that his dam is the superb turf sprinter Cambiocorsa. Jason Servis tends to do well with these horses cutting back in distance. My top pick is Swamp Rat. This colt has really improved as a 3-year-old. He first served notice that he had taken a step forward when running Global Access to a head decision in that Tampa stakes back in March, and that foe would later go on to win the Grade 3 Saranac. Swamp Rat ran three times at Saratoga this summer and actually performed quite well in all of those starts. He nearly pulled off an upset over the heavily favored Value Proposition back in July and then was just slightly overmatched in a couple of stakes. All of those performances came around two turns, and I believe this horse is really going to appreciate the cutback in distance. He won his debut going 6 furlongs as a 2-year-old, so he clearly has the speed to compete over this distance. I also like that the connections are removing the blinkers so that he can revert to a closing style.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,6,8 with 1,2,5,6,8
RACE 5: LAUGHABLE (#1)
The horses exiting the 7th race on September 1 seem like the most logical contenders in this spot. Boxer Rebellion was bet down to be the close 2-1 second choice that day, but she was fairly disappointing in finishing a well-beaten third. She got a very good trip and just had no punch once they turned into the lane. She only finished 3/4-length ahead of today’s rival Laughable, and that one had a much tougher trip. Laughable set an honest pace on the front end, and seemed to have something left approaching the lane, but she bore out badly at the quarter pole, costing herself any chance of attaining a higher placing. This filly doesn’t have a ton of turf pedigree, but she showed a clear affinity for this surface in her debut. That speed she showed first time out should make her pretty dangerous breaking from the rail on this inner turf course and, if she behaves during the race, I think she can lead them all the way this time. Princesa Caroline may attract some support, but she’s looked fairly ordinary in her dirt workouts. She’s clearly bred to do better on turf as a half-sister to Lady Eli, but it remains to be seen how much ability she actually possesses. Of the firsters, I actually prefer Aziza, who appears to be working well for Dermot Magner. I was impressed by her drill at the Fasig-Tipton sale back in May and progeny of Cairo Prince can certainly handle the turf.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,9
RACE 6: MANDATORY (#9)
This race goes through the first time starters, and there are many from which to choose. However, it’s difficult to determine which ones, if any, are meant to win first time out, since most members of this field are bred to go longer or to handle the turf. Chad Brown’s runners always seem to take money, so Toledo may end up the favorite. Into Mischief is 16% with his 2-year-old firsters and the dam won routing on dirt. However, there are prominent turf influences in the second generation. His second dam Conference Call was Grade 1-placed going a mile on turf, and she has produced this dam’s half-siblings Seismic Wave and Teletext, both of whom were graded stakes-placed on turf. This colt has been working in company with Aasr, who was 5th in his debut last week. The firster that interests me most is Mandatory. This son of American Pharoah sold for $400,000 after working a furlong in 10 4/5 seconds in March. He’s a half-brother to I’m a Chatterbox (8-for-19, $2.3 million), a two-time Grade 1 winner routing on dirt. John Kimmel’s statistics with firsters aren’t terribly convincing, but he seems to have some live juveniles this season. This colt has worked well in company with recent New York-bred debut winner Harris Bay. I’m definitely getting vibes that this one can run, but he may want to go a bit longer. I’ll primarily use him with Flatter Me, who ships in from Monmouth for Tim Hills, and Juulstone, who seems to be working well for Shug McGaughey.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,6,10
RACE 9: STRUCTOR (#7)
Structor and No Word figure to vie for favoritism in this Pilgrim as both exit impressive maiden victories on Aug. 31 at Saratoga. No Word ran the faster race, achieving a solid time over the Mellon turf course, yet he also got a perfect trip en route to that victory. He’s bred to be a nice one as a full brother to graded-stakes-winning turf Silentio, so there’s definitely room for improvement. I’m just not sure that he actually ran better than Structor, who won the first division of that maiden race, even though No Word achieved a much faster final time. Structor was competing on the inner turf course and his race featured a glacial early pace. Stuctor also had a good trip, easily taking over from an overmatched leader in the stretch, but he still did well to easily hold off a good horse in Sul Moon late. Structor came home in very fast time, hence his good 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which incorporates some extra credit due to those swift closing fractions. Structor was an expensive 2-year-old purchase who has trained very forwardly out of that race and I won’t be at all surprised when he takes a big step forward in this stakes debut. I’m not trying to beat him, though I doubt you’re going to get much of a price on this horse. The other runner that I want to use prominently is Our Country. I didn’t like the With Anticipation as a race, but Our Country probably put forth the best effort that day. He became totally unhinged after a poor start and put himself into a dangerous position as he ran up on horses heels heading into the clubhouse turn. Manny Franco had a terrible time controlling him, and he should do better here if he’s able to relax in the early stages.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 1,2,3,5,6,8
RACE 10: VINO ROSSO (#3)
Code of Honor may go off as the slight favorite as he comes off an impressive victory in the Travers at this distance. He’s really come to hand this summer for Shug McGaughey and has dispelled any notions that he can’t go this far. However, he did get a perfect trip in that Travers victory, staying well off a dead rail for his entire trip. He still came home in solid time in a race that didn’t exactly fall apart, but I do wonder if he’s slightly overrated off that effort. I don’t believe the gap between he and Tacitus is as large as that result would suggest. Tacitus has been pretty unlucky in a few starts this year, though he was just second best in the Travers. That said, he may be forwardly placed again, and his tactical speed figures to be an asset in this spot. I respect both of these runners, but I prefer the older horses. Preservationist would be a handful if he ran back to his Suburban score. He disappointed in the Whitney but got the job done in the Woodward last time. His speed makes him dangerous once again, but it’s not as if he’s beaten the strongest fields in his victories. I’m not convinced that he’s actually much better than Vino Rosso, who figures to be the biggest price of all of these contenders. Vino Rosso proved that he loves this distance in the Gold Cup back in May. He didn’t have a bad trip by any means in the Whitney, but he just never seemed comfortable on the chase the entire way. Todd Pletcher has removed the blinkers since that race and he’s worked extremely well without them in the mornings. There’s no doubt that he’s been a bit of a disappointment, but he seems tailor-made for this race and I think we could see a career-best effort out of him on Saturday.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4