by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 8 - 9
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 10 - 13 - 14 - 11
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 1A - 2
Race 5: 11 - 13 - 10 - 1
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 11: 3 - 5 - 2 - 9
RACE 2: LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#6)
This allowance-optional-claiming race is seemingly wide open, as a number of contenders have run well enough to win at this level at some point. The one that appears to be coming into this race with the most upside is Almithmaar, and perhaps that will make him the favorite. I thought this gray gelding did well to close from the back of the pack – contrary to his typical running style – to beat a weaker field than this one. He can take another step forward here, but he will likely need to do so. Long Haul Bay would be a strong favorite in this spot if he were guaranteed to run back to some of his efforts from earlier this year. However, he disappointed as the favorite in the John Morrissey two back and didn’t appear to be the same horse last time over fast going. I’m somewhat against him resurrecting his form in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that Delta Bluesman will be tough to run down on the front end, but I don’t fully trust him to get the 6 1/2 furlongs, or to bring his best form to New York. The horse that I want to bet is Life in Shambles. This horse was acquired by top claiming trainer Jason Servis prior to his last start on Aug. 19, and he disappointed considering the usual improvement displayed by such runners. However, I think he had some excuses that day. After breaking very sharply, Irad Ortiz made the questionable decision to drag him back off the pace, and Life in Shambles ended up getting left with too much to do. He was on the best part of the track toward the rail last time and didn’t make up much ground. However, he’s never run particularly well at Saratoga, and Belmont Park has always been this horse’s favorite racetrack. Now he’s drawn in the outside post position, which should help him attain a more forward early position.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 2,4 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 8: ROBERT BRUCE (#1)
I think this Joe Hirsch Turf Classic features a formidable favorite, but it’s still a compelling race from a handicapping perspective. Robert Bruce will be awfully difficult to defeat as he goes for his 9th victory in 10 lifetime starts. He was visually impressive when taking down the Arlington Million with a late rush last time, but that victory did come at the hands of a weaker group than this one. His only defeat came over this track in the Manhattan two back, but I thought he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he’s not a horse with a particularly effective turn of foot. He only tried this 12-furlong distance once in his native Chile, but I was impressed with his determined finish that day. He strikes me as the type of runner who can handle this distance and I think he’s far and away the most likely winner. That said, there are still others to consider at more enticing prices, and I will be looking to use them underneath. A number of horses did not have their best chances in the Sword Dancer as that race was dominated on the front end over a firm course that was playing to inside speed. Spring Quality ran well and should appreciate more ground, and Hi Happy could benefit from a more aggressive ride. Yet the horse that was the most compromised by the dynamics of the Sword Dancer was Sadler’s Joy. He got too far back and never had a chance to make up much ground. He doesn’t mind some give in the turf course and usually shows up with a good effort. At a much bigger price, I also want to use Irish import Teodoro. Class is a question mark for this 4-year-old gelding, but he ran a competitive 120 Timeform Rating two back and has the speed to lead this paceless field in the early going.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5,6 with 2,3,4,5,6,8
RACE 9: VINEYARD SOUND (#4)
I have no major knocks against Opry, who is clearly the horse to beat. This son of Declaration of War took a big step forward when switched to turf last time, breaking his maiden in the Grade 3 With Anticipation. Midway through the running of the race, it appeared that he was not going to be competitive, as Javier Castellano was working hard to motivate him. However, once they straightened away in the lane, he found his best stride and mowed down his rivals. If he produces a similar late kick in this spot, he’s going to be a handful. However, this is a tougher field than that one and he is going to be a much shorter price this time. I’m definitely using him prominently, but I think there are some intriguing alternatives, some of which will be inflated prices. The other logical contenders are Somelikeithotbrown, who finished second to the favorite last time with no real excuse, and Spirit Animal, who has a right to continue progressing off his maiden win for Chad Brown. I think these are both viable win candidates, but the horse that interests me most is longshot Vineyard Sound. Like Opry prior to the With Anticipation, he is making his graded stakes debut as a maiden. This horse was meant to start his career on turf on Aug. 18, but he was left in once the race was rained off the grass, and he actually ran quite well to be second. The track seemed to be in his favor that day, but that’s irrelevant to me in this situation. What is important is that he showed good speed, which should be an asset in this field, and he displayed some characteristics of a horse that should take to routing on turf. He is certainly bred to handle this surface, as a full-sibling to turf stakes winner Bittel Road.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7,9
RACE 11: NANTUCKET RED (#3)
It’s hard to know how this race will be bet given the number of evenly-matched contenders. My guess is that Lion in Wait and Chiara Luna will vie for the favorite’s role. The former is not really a horse that interests me, as she has been pretty fortunate in her best races and is likely to face early pace pressure from others. Chiara Luna does seems like a legitimate contender as she makes her U.S. debut. Her Irish form is somewhat difficult to gauge, since she really wasn’t competitive in her greatest class test in the Irish 1,000 Guineas back in May. The 97 Timeform Rating that she earned in the trial for that race puts her somewhere in the mix here, but her most recent effort was a disappointing loss at 1-2 odds in a 3-horse field. Christophe Clement has not had much recent success with imports like this, so I want to look elsewhere. The filly that interests me is Nantucket Red. I realize that her recent form looks somewhat disappointing, but she has had legitimate excuses in a number of her races. I thought she was ran quite well two back when she made a wide move into contention behind the promising Reversethedecision before flattening out. Then last time she may not have quite handled the distance in a tougher allowance field. She also had to alter course and had trouble finding a seam in roughly-run stretch drive. I feel that she’s going to appreciate the cutback to one mile and the return to Belmont Park. This rangy filly seemed to really appreciate this venue back in June, and the form of those maiden races has actually held up much better than one might have expected at the time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,9