by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 10 - 5
RACE 3: AVERY ISLAND (#6)
Road to Meath is probably the horse to beat in his second career start, but I'm not sure how much stock is fair to place in his debut effort. That race was run in an odd fashion, where the leaders set extremely slow early fractions (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and sprinted home. Road to Meath didn't have much of a chance to close, but I also am not sure that he ran that well. I'm taking a shot against him with another second-time starter, Avery Island. This horse didn't do much running in his debut despite going off at a relatively short price that day. That said, he comes out of a pretty live maiden race and I think he has a right to really step forward with this stretch-out in distance. His dam, Kinda Spicy, was a confirmed router, and Kiaran McLaughlin has solid numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 16 (31%, $2.71 ROI) with two-year-old maidens stretching out on dirt in their second career starts.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
RACE 6: PECULIAR SENSATION (#2)
Consumerconfidence is clearly the horse to beat and a deserving favorite in this spot. He raced competitively at the starter-allowance level last time and is now dropping back in for a claiming tag. This is a relatively tough race for this level, but he still has to be considered the most likely winner. The only issue is that he's going to be an awfully short price, and there are others who figure to offer significantly better value. One of those is Peculiar Sensation, who comes right back at the same level after getting unlucky in his most recent start. That day, he broke sharply but was steadily shuffled back down the backstretch and around the far turn, eventually winding up near the back of the pack by the quarter pole. All things considered, he did well to close for fourth despite encountering traffic in the lane. His only win came at this seven-furlong distance, and I think we'll see him closer to the early pace here.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,8
RACE 7: STALLWALKIN’ DUDE (#1)
Has El Deal simply turned into one of the best sprinters in the country? Or was his last win an aberration aided by circumstances, given that his prior form merely makes him an ordinary contender in this race? I'm leaning toward the latter opinion. After all, the Saratoga main track was favoring speed and inside runners that day, and he took advantage of a moderate pace. He's a threat, but I think he faces a much tougher field this time. Like El Deal's Vanderbilt pace rival, Green Gratto, Takaful is very fast, but he can keep going at this distance and may soften up the favorite for a closer. I'm hoping that's the case because I think Stallwalkin' Dude has landed in a favorable spot. It's fair to say that he's lost a step recently, but I can make some excuses for his two recent poor performances. Both came at seven furlongs, which is not his best distance, and last time he was returning on very short rest. He loves Belmont Park and will be able to work out his preferred closing trip in this race.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL
RACE 8: MORRISON (#2)
Likely favorite Voting Control gets tested for class here as he makes his first start against winners and his stakes debut. He ran well to win his first start, making a wide run to cut down the leader in the late stages, but he was the recipient of a favorable pace scenario. This time, there isn't a ton of speed signed on, and he will have to defeat some talented runners coming out of the With Anticipation. Seabhac may have run the best race of the runners exiting that event since he was never really on the rail and had to slice his way through traffic in upper stretch. He's definitely one to use, but I want to take a shot with a runner who finished behind him last time. I think Morrison didn't get the right trip in the With Anticipation, his turf debut. He was successful showing speed in his maiden win but was awkwardly out of the gate last time and relegated to a position near the back of the pack. He just didn't seem totally comfortable employing that running style, and I have to think Robby Albarado will be looking to get him much more forwardly placed here. He's bred to handle turf, and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6,8
RACE 10: MEKHTAAL (#8)
This Turf Classic field is as wide-open as any assembled in this division this season. The runner whom I don't want is Oscar Performance, who is likely to go off at a relatively short price, if not as the outright favorite. He just has never faced a field of this quality and is unproven at 12 furlongs. I think Sadler's Joy is the horse to beat. Unlike so many among this group, he is actually a specialist at 1 1/2 miles and appears to be coming into this race in the best form of his career. However, others do figure to offer better value. The one who intrigues me most at a square price is Mekhtaal. It's hard to tell how much run he really had in the Arlington Million because he was never fully clear through the stretch and couldn't be asked for his best. Based on his prior form in Europe, he might be the horse to beat here. He didn't lose the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes by that much back in June, finishing behind titans like Highland Reel, Decorated Knight, and Ulysses. He's handled this distance and now finds himself in the barn of Graham Motion, who has awesome numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 22 for 70 (31 percent, $3.60 ROI) first off a trainer switch with horses getting Lasix for the first time.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,5,6,9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 4,5,10 with 1,4,5,6,8,9,10