by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 10:   9 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 11:   3 - 8 - 1 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: MONTATHAM (#4)
There isn’t a ton of encouraging turf form in this race, so I suppose the first time starter La Hara will attract plenty of support. This appears to be one of the few horses purchased overseas by Chad Brown who has turned out to be a dud. He sold for about $342,000 as a weanling at the Goffs November sale, but he’s since been gelded and is now making his debut for just $40,000. He hasn’t impressed in his morning training, so he’s probably being placed at a realistic level. The dam wanted to run all day, winning a Group 2 going 1 1/2 miles and he’s by Dansili, so this distance may actually be a little short for him. I want to go in a different direction, but I’m not thrilled with a horse like Crypto Gold, who has had his chances on dirt. Therefore, I want to take a shot with Montatham getting on turf for the first time. While there isn’t overwhelming turf pedigree on the dam’s side, he is by Candy Ride out of a Stormy Atlantic mare, so there’s clearly some turf influence there. This colt just didn’t appear to be comfortable striding out over the sloppy track in his debut, as he was climbing badly on the far turn. He appears to be training well for this second start and we’ve seen Kiaran McLaughlin pull off this surface switch successfully with maidens in the past. I don’t have a strong feeling about this horse having turf affinity, but I just think he’s the right place to go in this particular field.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7
 

RACE 5: DEMOCRATIC VALUES (#4)
There appears to be some talent in this 2-year-old maiden event, as a few horses who ran pretty well in their debuts are facing off against some intriguing first time starters. Of those with experience, Hemlock figures to attract the most support. He was surprisingly bet down to 4-5 favoritism in his off-the-turf debut as the only Main Track Only entrant in that race. He was no match for the talented winner Another Miracle, though he earned a respectable speed figure. However, it remains to be seen if that’s a true number, since horses have not yet to comeback to validate it. I actually prefer Unprecedented of those who have started. He was contesting an honest pace in his debut and the winner of that race American Butterfly was hardly disgraced when finishing fourth in the Hopeful. John Kimmel has had some live 2-year-olds this year and this one could certainly take a step forward second time out. Yet, I believe the first time starters should taken seriously in this spot, and the ones that figure to attract support are sent out by two top barns. Democratic Values seems like an exciting colt for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. He has an outstanding pedigree, being by first crop sire Honor Code out of a dam who won sprinting on dirt. Though, the second generation is all dirt route breeding, as second dam Runup the Colors won the Alabama, and she’s the dam of Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Revolutionary. Chad Brown 2-year-olds are rarely going to be that flashy in the mornings, but he’s done everything asked of him, outworking his typical workmate on a few occasions. He may ultimately want to go farther than this, but it would be no surprise if he makes his debut a successful one. I’d also use Alpha Sixty Six, who has been training well for Todd Pletcher. He appeared to get the better of recent turf debut winner Freewheeler in an August 11 drill and he’s logged some impressive times since then. Liam’s Map’s first crop is off to a good start, as his son Basin won the Hopeful last week.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,6,7
 

RACE 6: A DIXIE TWISTER (#5)
Odramark may go favored again, but I’m just not sure how good she really is despite her seemingly strong turf form. She was beaten as the odds-on choice in each of her last two starts without much of an excuse. Perhaps this is a slightly easier spot, but there’s no guarantee that she’s going to relish the stretch-out to 6 furlongs in a race where others have experience going that distance. My top pick is A Dixie Twister. This mare would arguably be the favorite if her last race wasn’t showing, but I’m willing to give her a pass for that Saratoga performance. She’s always been better at Belmont than anywhere else and this 6-furlong distance is ideal for her. Mike Miceli has quietly been having an outstanding year and I have faith that he can get this mare back on track. It’s not as if this race came up particularly strong for the starter allowance level, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the fact that her overlal form looks a little cheap. The other runner that I want to use is Take Charge Tina. This filly took to turf very well two back, and she’s since been claimed by sharp owner Matt Schera, who sends her to Carlos Martin. The distance is a question mark, but she may just be a different horse on the grass.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
 

RACE 8: CARLINO (#6)
Marconi rarely gets respect at the windows, but it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the horse to beat. I didn’t love his performance in the Birdstone last time, but that race may have been about a quarter-mile farther than his ideal distance, whereas Rocketry was supposed to relish that trip. I like this slight cutback, and Marconi has the tactical speed to be very dangerous. I’m not against him, but I don’t think he has any kind of massive edge over this field and there are some others to consider at more enticing prices. I’m not a big fan of You’re to Blame, whose form seems to be declining since earlier in the year. The other horse that I want to take out of Marconi’s Brooklyn is Realm, who was three wide against the rail bias that day and stayed on well for third. He was hardly disgraced against a tougher field in the Suburban last time and he may appreciate stretching back out in distance. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Carlino, who may get somewhat lost in the wagering. I think this horse has shown subtle improvement through his three starts this year. He was way too far back early in the Pimlico Special, and the Suburban wasn’t run in a fashion that suits his strengths. He finished very well to just miss third in the Alydar last time, and I believe he’s going to appreciate stretching back out to 1 1/2 miles. He only has to run as well as he did in the 2018 Brooklyn to be considered a major threat and his form coming into this race is far stronger than it was at that time last year.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8
 

RACE 9: WONDERMENT (#6)
The European shippers figure to dominate this Jockey Club Oaks in the absence of Concrete Rose, who won the first two legs of the series. I suppose the horse to beat is Edisa, who comes into this off a pair of placings in Group 2 and Group 3 company. The horse that beat her two back, Mehdaayih, returned to finish second in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, so there was some quality to that field. While Edisa stacks up well from a class perspective, I haven’t loved her lack of finishing power in the final furlong of those last two races. On both occasions she got into winning position and just couldn’t quite seal the deal. I prefer the other French invader Wonderment. This daughter of Camelot showed a ton of promise as a 2-year-old, finishing third behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Line of Duty in a Group 3 before taking down a Group 1 event in late October. She’s yet to hit the board in three starts as a 3-year-old, but she’s had some excuses. She was slightly overmatched in the Group 1 Prix de Diane two back and she also may not have appreciated being so close to the early pace. Then last time, she was too rank when rating at the back of the pack behind a very slow pace. Trainer Nicolas Clement has shipped to Belmont twice over the last five years with the same horse, finishing second and third in two editions of the Belmont Gold Cup. I think this filly is well-meant and is a perfect fit from a class and distance perspective. The other horse that I want to use is Love So Deep, though I don’t love the fact that she’s cutting back in distance to 1 3/8 miles. This daughter of Deep Impact acts like a true stayer. She doesn’t have much of a turn of foot, rather just grinding away at her rivals. I’m not sure that’s going to work out well for her in a race that features no real pace.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,7,8
 

RACE 10: SPANISH MISSION (#9)
This race features the winners of the first two legs of this series, Henley’s Joy and A Thread of Blue, but neither one is likely to be the favorite in this final leg of the series. That role should go to Digital Age, beaten when one of the favorites in the Belmont Derby and a good second in the Saratoga Derby. He’s been more consistent than the two aforementioned rivals and he goes out for the ever dangerous Chad Brown barn. He’s arguably the most naturally talented American runner in this field, but I’m somewhat concerned about the stretch-out in distance for this son of Invincible Spirit. Of the Americans, I’m actually most interested in Henley’s Joy, as he didn’t get an ideal trip in the Saratoga Derby and Mike Maker knows how to get these horses to stretch out to marathon distances. I’m using them all, but my top pick is the European shipper Spanish Mission. A win and a third-place finish in a pair of Group 3 events may not sound like much to write home about, but this colt earned some formidable Timeform Ratings in those efforts. He made a powerful drive from well back to soundly defeat Nayef Road in the Bahrain Trophy, and then was arguably best when losing to that foe in the Gordon last time after getting held up in traffic approaching the final furlong. This colt is well on his way to bigger things and could have reasonably targeted the Group 1 St. Leger instead of this spot Trainer David Simcock is 4 for 11 (37%, $4.47 ROI) with North American shippers over the past five years.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,5,8
Trifecta: 9 with 3,4,8 with 1,3,4,5,8
 

RACE 11: FREUDIAN SIP (#3)
I have some problems with this race, which is why I’ve landed on a somewhat wacky selection. I suppose Champagne Chills is the horse to beat after crossing the wire first in an off-the-turf race last time. However, the speed figures for that race seem a little high for the runners involved and I want to see the top two repeat those numbers before I believe it. Furthermore, a sealed, muddy track is completely different than a fast track and a turf horse like Champagne Chills still has to prove that he can handle it. I’m not way against him, but I don’t want him at a short price. I’m similarly disinterested in Legion Storm, who just seems to run the same race every time and is rarely good enough to get the job done. Perhaps he’s improved slightly for Rob Atras, and it’s probably fair to argue that there are no horses of the quality of Bourbon Mission or Bears Mafia in this race. However, it’s just hard to back a runner who always seems to find at least one better than him. I want to get a little creative, so I’m taking a shot with Freudian Sip. Obviously, those horse has done no running so far, but I think there are some factors at play that could prompt a form reversal. First of all, it’s unlikely that he’s a turf horse since he’s a full-brother to dirt runner Blame It On Mom. Therefore, I’m not that interested in those last two grass races. His debut all the way back in February actually wasn’t that bad, since he was in contention in upper stretch before greenness got the best of him. Now he’s returning for new trainer Jorge Abreu and he’s sporting some eye-catching workouts which have reportedly been accomplished with the blinkers on. We’ve seen Abreu improve horses off trainer switches and it seems like a pretty good sign that a live rider like Jose Lezcano is taking this mount. It’s a bit of a guess, but I think this is the right kind of race in which to make such a leap.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,8