by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 8 - 9 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 9 - 10 - 7
Race 10: 2 - 8 - 6 - 3
RACE 3: DOROTHY’S DREAM (#5)
I suppose Something Joyful is the horse to beat, but it’s hard to enthusiastically endorse a second time starter coming off nearly a one-year layoff. She ran very well in her debut, but you have to wonder if she can get back to that effort after such a substantial break. I’m using her, but she’s not a horse I want to accept at a short price. There are a limited number of logical alternatives in this group and many of them do very little for me. Therefore, I’m deliberately reaching for a slightly more creative pick. Dorothy’s Dream is not the kind of horse that would usually get me excited, as a 6-year-old more making just her fifth lifetime start. However, I think this is a rare situation where this senior member of the field deserves a second chance at being a racehorse. She made 3 starts in quick succession in the summer and fall of 2016, going out for low-percentage trainer who typically struggle on this circuit. Despite those connections, she didn’t run terribly in her previous starts at this level. I thought that her rider didn’t make much of an attempt to get her involved in her last turf start on Sep. 15, as he let her go extremely wide on the turn and lose position. She returned last time in the barn of Jorge Abreu, who is coming off a strong Saratoga meet. She was rained off that day, but she probably got some fitness out of that race at the very least. Watching some of her workouts leading into the return, she appears to be a more athletic horse than she was two years ago, and I think it’s a great sign that they aren’t immediately dropping her in for a tag.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 4: COLONEL TOM (#6)
World of Trouble has to be considered the horse to beat off his win over a few of today’s rivals in the Quick Call at Saratoga. This colt had shown a great deal of ability on dirt early in his career, and he appeared to transfer that superior form to grass last time. While a repeat of that win may be good enough to get the job done in this spot, it is worth pointing out that he did have many things go his way last time. World of Trouble is a fast horse, but he did not have to set a particularly fast pace last time, making it difficult for others to close. He’s likely to receive much more early pressure in this race, as Weather Report and Colonel Tom also bring a ton of speed to the table. Dirty seems like a logical closer to throw into the mix. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and Dirty is really the only horse in this field who has effectively rallied from off the pace. I want to take a shot with Colonel Tom at a square price. This horse is getting a serious class test, but I feel that he’s also the one with the most upside. Colonel Tom hinted that he might be this good when he made his debut last fall, and it took him a while to get back to that level this year. He took a step forward second off the layoff in June, and he continued that progression last time at Saratoga. I know he was facing weaker company 15 days ago, but I loved the way Colonel Tom won that race, as Dylan Davis took no prisoners right from the start. Colonel Tom broke from the rail in his last two races, and I think he’s going to greatly benefit from having drawn outside of the other speeds in this race. George Weaver does well when he runs horses back on short rest, and Colonel Tom has already shown that he can handle it.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 2,3,4,5,7
RACE 6: CHARREADA (#3)
I’m not getting too creative here since I just think Charreada is probably going to win this race at what figures to be a short price. There were plenty of tips on this filly when she ran at Saratoga last time. She had been working well leading into that race and was clearly bred to handle turf. However, things didn’t go so well once the gates opened, as she ended up farther back than most would have preferred. From there, Julien Leparoux was never really able to get her into the clear as he tried to get her to rally while racing in tight quarters in the stretch. I like this rider switch to John Velazquez, who figures to get her more involved from the start. Given her size and pedigree, 1 1/4 miles on turf is probably going to suit her better than the shorter distance she tried last time. This filly clearly has some ability, and I think she’s finally going to show it in this spot. Her main rival is Semper Sententiae, who had plenty of trouble when she made her debut in late July at Saratoga. She was rank early, was carried out into the clubhouse turn, and just raced wide thereafter. All things considered, she did well to only lose by 2 1/2 lengths. However, it’s asking a lot for her to negotiate an added two furlongs in just her second start. She’s clearly the other one to use off this trainer switch to Mark Hennig.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 7 with 5,6
RACE 7: BOLITA BOYZ (#7)
This is one of the most competitive races of the day, as you can make valid cases for just about all of the entrants. I am somewhat concerned about the likely pace scenario, as the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. That could make Full Salute dangerous, but I’m not thrilled with this horse’s recent form or the fact that he’s running back on such short rest. I’m most interested in a couple of runners exiting the eighth race on Aug. 15. Happy Farm also has some early speed, though he hasn’t used it in many of his recent starts. I thought he stayed on gamely in his last start after getting run off his feet by the swift Still Krz, and I find the recent claim by Charlton Baker to be intriguing. I’m definitely using him, but my top pick is Bolita Boyz, who finished just ahead of Happy Farm in that Aug. 15 race. Bolita Boyz rallied up the rail after getting outrun in the early stages. While no match for the winner, I thought he was clearly second-best. This is a horse with whom Robertino Diodoro had won in the past, so I was intrigued when he claimed him back during the Belmont meet. While his Saratoga efforts produced mixed results, I think he’s finally getting back to his favorite New York surface, as his Belmont efforts are just better than his performances at Aqueduct or Saratoga. David Cohen should have him a bit more forwardly placed from the outset this time.
Win: 7
Exacta Box: 3,5,7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,6
RACE 8: NOT SO QUIET MAN (#3)
Outrageous Bet comes off the best last-out performance as he lost by only a head against a tougher field at this level. His overall form is a bit spotty, but he is certainly capable of beating this field on his best day. I’m using him, but other runner out of that Aug. 19 race interests me more. No So Quiet Man got a very peculiar trip in that race. He actually broke very well and was in the first flight of horses soon after the start. However, Javier Castellano seemed to be content to let him drop back through the pack through the following furlongs, ultimately getting shuffled back to last on the far turn. Castellano is not the kind of rider to so willingly let horses lose position like that, and I didn’t see any apparent reason for him to stop riding aggressively. No So Quiet Man actually had some run once they got into the stretch, but he was behind horses and had to alter course. He’s clearly better than that, and his prior form at Monmouth suggests that he was actually getting back to some of his better races. I like that they’re bringing him back at the same level again with Castellano aboard, and the slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs may work in his favor. The other horse to use is Jupiter Rising, who probably will benefit from the turnback to sprinting on turf. His recent form is less than desirable, but he seems to be landing in an unusually soft spot.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,8
RACE 10: MALTHAEL (#2)
This is among the most interesting races on the card, as there could be some quality in this field. A number of horses in this race were intended to start on turf at Saratoga, but weather forced them to delay those starts until now. Once horse did get to make a turf start up at the Spa was Current, and he actually ran quite well on Aug. 13. I thought that was a reasonably strong race for the level, and Current closed willingly in the stretch after lugging in at the top of the lane. He’s bred to appreciate extra distance, and I just think he’s the horse to beat. Teachable Moment also must be considered off his pair of solid efforts to start his career. He was hindered by a moderate pace in his turf debut back in July and he got rained off last time, so it’s possible that we haven’t yet seen the best of him. I’m using both of these, but there are some interesting first time turfers to consider. One of those is A Thread of Blue, whose siblings ran well on both dirt and turf. He was well-supported in his debut but he never seemed too comfortable racing over a deep dirt surface that day. Perhaps turf is the answer. I’m using him, but the one that I prefer is Malthael. This son of Noble Mission was intended to run on grass first time out, but was left in to get a race when that event was rained off. There is not explicit turf pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree, but he nevertheless comes from a classy female family, as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner A. P. Indian. Malthael certainly appeared to be a turfy type of mover in his debut, and he has reportedly done some nice things in the morning. I think we’re going to see a big step forward from this gelding as he switches surfaces.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8