PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   10 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 10 - 11 - 8
Race 6:   8 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   11 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   1 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 5 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: COAL TRUTH (#5)
The runners likely to attract the most money in this spot are the two coming out of the race won by Pure Shot at Saratoga. Allured and Super Sermon both ran well in their respective debuts. One would imagine that Allured is the more likely of the two to move forward in his second start given Chad Brown's strong numbers with second-time starting maidens on the dirt. However, he definitely has more of a sprint pedigree on the dam's side. I'm actually more interested in Chad Brown's other runner, Coal Truth, who actually ran quite well in his debut. He was off awkwardly, spotting the field a couple of lengths right out of the gate. He advanced willingly on the turn and just flattened out late in the stretch. While the final time of that race was slow, it was run at a point in the day when Saratoga was getting rain, and the main track had slowed significantly. Furthermore, the main track appeared to be favoring horses with speed, so Coal Truth was against the grain of the track. We saw Lone Sailor, who got a similar trip to win his next start, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 20 points.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with ALL

RACE 5: VAGABOND (#5) / MORETHANAWARNING (#11)
There are many capable runners in this race, but only a few that I really want to bet. I just don't see horses such as Kahrumana or Glory to Kitten offering significant value, and would rather focus on some of the bigger prices. My top pick is Vagabond. This filly is due for some luck after taking the worst of it in two starts at Saratoga. She was stymied in traffic for much of the stretch drive two back, and then raced three- to four-wide around the turns last time when horses on the rail seemed to have an advantage. This time she should be able to save some ground from this post position, and I think she can finally break through with a win. At a much bigger price, I also want to use Morethanawarning, primarily underneath. This mare gets claimed back by Tom Bush, with whom she started her career. She's been competitive at this level on occasion, and figures to get some pace to close into in this race. She would have easily won last time had she not gotten caught in traffic in upper stretch.

Win: 5
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 5,11 with 1,5,8,10,11
Trifecta: 5 with 1,8,10,11 with 1,2,8,10,11

RACE 6: DREAM PASSAGE (#8)
I certainly respect Chad Brown's Wake Island, who was a solid second to her talented stablemate Durable Goods at Saratoga. She did well to hang on for second after attacking a fast pace around the far turn. The only knock against her is that she's now had a few chances and there are other runners in this field than may have more upside. One of those is Speighgal, who was a fast-closing second going a mile at Saratoga last time. She was still a little green in that race, but was really rolling once she got into the clear late. I'll certainly use her, but my top pick is Dream Passage, who moves back up in class after facing New York-bred last time. Even though she's moving up into a tougher spot, she ran much better than it seems last time. The pace of that race was extremely fast (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) and she was one of the few speed horses that held on late in a race that otherwise fell apart and was dominated by closers.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,6

RACE 8: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#1)
I don't really like either of the morning-line favorites in this spot. Far From Over doesn't seem to be quite the same horse that he once was after a couple of lengthy layoffs interrupted his career. His last race was a step in the right direction, but he would need to improve again to beat this field. Conquest Windycity ran well enough in the Alydar behind the talented Rally Cry, and the Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He's certainly a contender, but I think others will offer better value. My top pick is Backsideofthemoon, who switches back to dirt for the first time since the spring. When last seen racing on this surface, he finished a fine third behind Diversify and Rally Cry, who are both graded stakes-caliber runners. His turf races weren't terrible and he even managed to win one, but I think he's really more of a dirt horse. This distance suits him and I like the rider switch to John Velazquez.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4

RACE 10: ASPHALT PAVING (#7)
Pure Sensation is probably the horse to beat as he drops out of New York-bred allowance races into this softer conditional claimer. Six furlongs is probably his best distance and he figures to sit a good stalking trip in a race that doesn't feature a ton of early speed. I'll certainly use him, but the runner that I want to bet here is Asphalt Paving. He only made one turf start last fall and, even though he finished off the board, he actually ran well considering the circumstances. I really don't think he wants to go that far and he didn't finish that far behind talented turf runners like Yoshida and Adonis Creed. He showed that he handles the surface, and now he gets back on grass going a much more appropriate distance.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,9,10