by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 6 
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 9 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 9 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 10:   4 - 11 - 10 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: NINJA DUST (#3)
This seems like a race that could be open to first time starters, so it’s likely that Pletcher debuter Walkoff will inherit the favorite’s role. This barn is renowned for their success with firsters, but Pletcher’s stats in maiden claiming events are not nearly as impressive. Over the past 5 years, he is just 3 for 26 (12 percent, $1.04 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt sprints at NYRA. Walkoff has some pedigree, but I’m not thrilled with the prospect of taking a short price on him. Of those with experience, Ari’s Naughty Luca should attract some play. He earned a respectable speed figure in his debut when finishing behind Kentucky Derby prospect Haikal. Kiaran McLaughlin does not have the strongest stats with horses dropping down into maiden claiming company, and this gelding took no money in that unveiling. I’ll use both of these horses, but my top pick is Ninja Dust. This Carlos Martin gelding feels like one that could get ignored in this race. He began his career on turf, thought that’s not really the surface that he’s bred to prefer. Switched to dirt second time out, he was unfortunate to run into Wood Memorial winner Tacitus. They added blinkers for this third start, and he ran the best race of his career. He ran in spots through the opening stages, but was finishing quite well in tandem with Inclunation through the lane. That horse has since gone on to record faster speed figures, as has the winner Twelthofneverland. I don’t mind the turnback off the layoff and wouldn’t be surprised if this horse is capable of better now as a 3-year-old.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
 

RACE 4: FINANCIAL SYSTEM (#1)
This 10-furlong affair essentially boils down to three main players. Two of them faced each over this course and distance last fall, when Hierarchy won a maiden event at the expense of Argonne. While Hierarchy owns some of the fastest speed figures in the field, I prefer Argonne on this occasion. Argonne may have run the better race in that Oct. 25 affair, as he was bottled up in traffic for the entire stretch drive while Hierarchy had a clear path. Since then Argonne has returned to belatedly break his maiden at Gulfstream in solid fashion. He obviously handles the trip and projects to work out a good stalking trip once again. I believe he’s the horse to beat off his last effort, but I’m instead picking Financial System on top. Chad Brown is just so dangerous with horses returning off layoffs like this, and I actually liked this runner’s 2018 turf efforts quite a bit. He’s a bit cheaper than the aforementioned pair, but he has ascended up the class ladder without a hitch. He made a visually impressive move to win over this course last June and followed that up with a solid effort against his stablemate Prognostication at Saratoga. That runner went on to just miss by a nose at this level in his next start. This feels like a race that could turn into a sprint to the wire, and I have a feeling that Financial System may possess the most effective turn of foot out of this trio.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4
 

RACE 5: DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS (#1)
Simona has gone off at odds of less than 2-1 in four straight races, and she is likely to be favored once again. She’s run some of the fastest speed figures in this field, but I was disappointed by her most recent effort, beyond the mere fact that she settled for second once again. She was never in contention in the early stages and couldn’t offer up a particularly effective late run. I actually thought today’s rival Viradia may have run the better race on that occasion, as she was hindered by a slow start and had to rush up into position in the opening furlong. I like Viradia’s rider switch to Jose Ortiz and I feel that she may finally get getting back to her 2018 form in her fourth start off the layoff. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Dancingwthdaffodls. This filly has failed to hit the board in her two starts since getting claimed by Edmund Pringle, but she’s actually run quite well each time. She contested an honest pace before fading going 1 1/8 miles, which is far beyond her ideal distance range. She then was thrown into a very difficult spot when meeting tougher starter allowance foes in the Sis City. Despite seeming overmatched, she held on well to be fourth, earning a respectable speed figure. I don’t mind this turnback to 6 furlongs given how well she ran going this distance back in February, and she is certain to appreciate the class relief. Kendrick Carmouche seems like a good fit for a filly who needs to use her tactical speed to have a chance.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,7
 

RACE 7: SPICE ROAD (#3)
I’ve been waiting for Spice Road to run back ever since his visually impressive unveiling. Debuting at the demanding seven-furlong distance, he was away towards the back of the pack and ran in spots through the opening furlongs. He seemed to be well out of contention coming around the turn, but kicked into high gear for the stretch drive. According to Trakus data, covered his last quarter mile in 23.78 seconds and his last eighth in 11.80 seconds – remarkable splits for a first-time starter on dirt. This Godolphin colt is bred to be a good one. He is by Street Sense out of the undefeated mare Kinda Spicy, making him a full sibling to Grade 2 Nashua winner Avery Island (3 for 6, $365,000). I’m somewhat surprised to see him back at seven furlongs for his second start rather than a longer distance. Yet that’s a minor concern for a horse who clearly possesses extraordinary talent. If he moves forward at all off that first run, he will be very difficult to beat. Among those with experience, his main rival is Fullness of Time. I wasn’t thrilled with this colt’s performances as a 2-year-old, but he has a right to do better as he returns for Chad Brown. I’m more interested in some of the first-time starters. The one that intrigues me most is Dark Storm. George Weaver has solid debut statistics at NYRA tracks, and this colt is out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner Race Day. He appears to be working well. Righteousness also seems like one that may have ability. However, this half-brother to Belmont Stakes runner-up Gronkowski may want more ground.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 7,9 with 2,5,6,7,9
 

RACE 9: FEAR NO EVIL (#7)
Fire Key is obviously the horse to beat in this License Fee. Racing for Joseph Catanese in Florida this winter, she put forth respectable efforts while keeping pretty tough company. It was fairly ambitious for her connections to stretch her out in distance and take on the likes of Precieuse, Valedictorian, and Proctor’s Ledge. Despite those obstacles, this mare was hardly disgraced in her defeats. She actually ran extremely well last time, as she overcame a poor start and a slow pace to nearly get into the trifecta. Now she’s turning back to six furlongs, where she has finished in the exacta in 9 of 10 starts. However, this race won’t just be handed to her despite her apparent class edge. There are a few worthy rivals drawn right alongside of her in the starting gate. Broadway Run showed real promise while trying a few stakes events last year and she will be formidable here if she returns as an improved 4-year-old. I’m certainly using her, but my top selection is Fire Key’s old nemesis Fear No Evil. I’ve always been a fan of this Tom Albertrani mare, and she finally put it all together late last season. She ran very well behind Fire Key in the Sensible Lady at Laurel, a race that she might have won had the winner not gotten the jump on her. She was again somewhat unlucky to lose to Fire Key in the Floral Park over a yielding ground at Belmont. Fear No Evil was forced to move too soon that day into a moderate pace, whereas Fire Key got a perfect trip, making the last move over the demanding course. Fear No Evil’s form since then is not nearly as encouraging as that of the favorite, but she has had excuses. She was racing on dirt two back and she’s never performed that well going five furlongs at Gulfstream. I like the stretch-out and return to Belmont as she’s reunited with Joe Bravo.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 5,6 with 3,4,5,6