by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 1/1A - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 9 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 4 - 3 - 7
RACE 3: CRIMSON FROST (#1)
Last year’s champion 2-year-old filly Caledonia Road is going to be a heavy favorite in this race as she makes her 2018 debut. If she takes a step forward in her first start as a 3-year-old, she will be awfully tough to beat. However, that’s no guarantee, given the delayed start to her campaign, and the fact that her connections have bigger goals. Furthermore, her Breeders’ Cup win last fall does not look quite as strong in retrospect, given the lackluster quality of that field and the fast early pace. She’s the horse to beat, but I think she has a legitimate rival in Crimson Frost. Her overall form is a bit spotty, but this 4-year-old has clearly run races that would beat the favorite. I also think you can make excuses for some of her recent starts. She didn’t want to go two turns last time, as she’s much better racing over this one-turn mile. If you disregard her Laurel race, she’s run well at this distance on a number of occasions. She also figures to get the jump on Caledonia Road given that one’s lack of early speed.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3
RACE 4: LAST CHANT (#3)
Catch a Cab is clearly the horse to beat as he returns to turf following a disappointing series of results racing on dirt this winter. He’s obviously getting back to the right surface, as all of his prior turf races would make him awfully tough to beat in this spot. While he’s run for a tag on dirt, he’s only faced maiden special weight company in his grass races, so he is getting significant class relief. Many of the other horses with turf form are not particularly compelling. Datum may have needed his debut, but he is going to need to improve significantly on that lackluster effort, and Lemon Blitz has hardly impressed. One horse that might be able to take a step forward in this spot is longshot Last Chant, whose lone turf effort is better than it seems. He was facing a much better field in that open race, in which the first three finishers are superior horses to those he meets here. He also did not get an easy trip that day, as he raced very wide around both turns and was just out of position throughout the race. Now he’s moving back into New York-bred company where he belongs and I think he has an excellent chance to outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7,8
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,5,7,8,9
RACE 8: ALWAYS THINKING (#5)
Stormy Victoria has been a mainstay in these listed and Grade 3 stakes races over the past couple of seasons. She routinely runs well and is effective at a variety of distances. However, I think it’s fair to question whether she’s lost a step following her disappointing effort in the Honey Fox last time. She got plenty of pace to close into, but her late run was not nearly as explosive as it has been in the past as she could only manage a fifth-place finish. The Christophe Clement barn has been pretty cold in recent weeks and I think she’s vulnerable as the favorite. Jennifer Lynnette is a viable alternative. She was closing well at the end of the Captiva Island and may have been in over her head in a very tough edition of the Giant’s Causeway last time. Six furlongs is probably a better distance for her, and she has the tactical speed to get the jump on her main rivals. I like her, but I can’t resist her rival Always Thinking at an even more enticing price. While Always Thinking finished behind Jennifer Lynnette in the Captive Island last time, five furlongs is just too short for her. This mare actually ran extremely well in the Autumn Days last November as she made an early move on the far turn while racing extremely wide. This is the right distance for her and she possesses a late kick that is as effective as that of anyone else in this field.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 9: STAG OF SYLVIA (#8)
I am giving in and falling for the so-called “wise guy” horse Stag of Sylvia. Nearly everyone saw the trouble that he had last time, which will significantly drive down his price. However, that does not negate the fact that he was still severely compromised in that race. He was slammed coming out of the gate, which put him much farther back than he otherwise would have been. After settling, he was actually making an effective late run around the far turn, but he was ridden directly into traffic and was completely sawed off. With all of his momentum lost, Stag of Sylvia trudged home a discouraged eighth. This time, everything is different. He’s in a New York-bred race where he belongs, and he’s getting a major rider upgrade to Manny Franco. Furthermore, his main competitors are not that compelling. La Manche has faced better fields, but he doesn’t appear to be that talented, and I’m not that afraid of plodders like Run for Boston and Fleet Admiral.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,7