by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 7 - 9
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   12 - 11 - 6 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: SATIN SHEETS (#4)
The two class droppers, My Won Love and Picture Day, should attract the bulk of the play here, and I’m somewhat skeptical of both. My Won Love may be the more reliable of the pair since this drop actually makes sense. She was running at this level as recently as March, and she took advantage of an uncharacteristically dull Picture Day when winning the Videogenic two back. She’s not really good enough to win at the N2X allowance level, so the drop back in for a tag is logical. Picture Day’s class plummet is more concerning. While she had been running for cheaper tags earlier in her career, she’s been competitive against tough open foes in many recent starts. Now, after a month-long gap on her work tab, Linda Rice is just dumping her in for $25,000, apparently hoping to lose her. That’s not my kind of favorite. I’m taking a shot against these mares with Satin Sheets. She looks like the one horse in this race who may be heading in the right direction. Even though the drop in for $14,000 last time seemed a bit hasty, she nevertheless ran a strong race to win that day. David Jacobson, who picked her up out of that race, has had a relatively slow meet, but I like that he’s moving her up in class. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 16 (25 percent, $2.30 ROI) first off the claim on dirt with horses running for a 50 percent higher claiming tag.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6

 

RACE 5: HAVE ANOTHER (#6)
Have Another gets a real class test today, and I suspect that he’s up to the challenge. I had been a fan of this horse when he appeared on the scene last winter as a 3-year-old, but it seemed that he wasn’t quite as sharp when he initially returned from a layoff this year. That all changed with his performance two back, where he trounced a group of claimers with a dazzling stretch run. One of the things that had made this horse stand out early in his career was his ability to put in extremely quick closing fractions – the likes of which you would typically see in turf races, not dirt sprints. According to Trakus, on May 11, he ran his final quarter-mile in 23.52 seconds, and then last time, he had to put in an unbelievable final quarter in 23.23 to get up to win. That June 17 win was particularly impressive since the pace of that race was very slow and Have Another had to wait in traffic when attempting to make his move rounding the far turn. He can be a tricky horse to ride, so I like that Junior Alvarado is sticking aboard for this rise in class. I’m assuming it’s a good sign that he’s running back in just 14 days, and if he shows up with another solid effort, I believe he’ll win. His main competitors are second-time starters. I slightly prefer Call Triple A, who exits a fast win at Parx and has a right to continue moving forward for the always-dangerous Michelle Nevin. Devils Halo was visually impressive at Churchill Downs last time, but he has more of a turf pedigree, so I wonder if his future will ultimately reside on that surface.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,2,3,5

 

RACE 7: HERSH (#3)
Payne is undoubtedly the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff, now in the Chad Brown barn. While his 2-year-old races did not come up exceptionally fast in terms of speed figures, he did face strong competition in those races. The winner of his debut, Quip, would go on to win the Tampa Bay Derby as a 3-year-old. Dream Baby Dream, who ran him down last time, has since placed in a couple of stakes races and was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail. Payne ran very well within the context of that Nov. 25 race, as he contested the pace four wide on the turn, took command at the head of the stretch, and just failed to sustain his bid as he was cut down in the last sixteenth. A mere repeat of that effort may be good enough to win here, and it’s likely that he’s improved since then. One of the reasons he looks so formidable is that many of the alternatives are firsttime starters. The two likely to attract the most attention are Aqwaam, a stablemate of the favorite, and Illudere for Jimmy Jerkens. Both of these horses have damside turf pedigrees, but they also appear to be working well for their debuts. However, there is another horse making his initial start who really intrigues me. Hersh debuts for former Chad Brown assistant Dermot Magner and is likely to go off at a significantly higher price than the aforementioned pair. This horse is bred to be precocious as a son of Jimmy Creed and worked a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS sale as a 2-yearold. While his recent work tab looks pretty nondescript at first glance, I was able to watch his drill two back on June 15 and was impressed. I don’t know if his unraced workmate has any ability, but he completely drowned her as he gobbled up ground coming to the wire under no encouragement. Hersh actually put in the serious part of his drill on the gallop-out, as he visibly lengthened his stride and put away his rival by 15 to 20 lengths by the time they reached the clubhouse turn. I don’t know if this barn cranks them up to win their debuts, but it's apparent that this horse has ability.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,8,9

 

RACE 9: NINJA BOYS (#12)
The only two horses with positive turf experience are Fast as Kitten and Time Expired. Of the two, I prefer the Mitch Friedmann runner who figures to go off at a better price. He was running at this level last time in what may have been a tougher race than this one. Catch a Cab obviously improved in subsequent starts, but there are no horses of that quality in this field. The pace of that race did come apart, and Time Expired ran well to hang on for third. In my opinion, he ran a better race than Fast as Kitten did in his recent start. Fast as Kitten was facing a weaker field, and he got a great trip from off the pace in a race that featured an honest pace. I’m using them, but I think this is a spot where we can get more creative. The horse that I want to bet is Ninja Boys, who gets on turf for the first time. This horse’s debut came back very slowly, but the winner returned to run significantly faster in his subsequent start, and two other also-rans returned to win on turf. Ninja Boys got completely outrun through the opening portion of that race but actually made up a ton of ground to be fourth. While he doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, his sire Simmard – who has been a disappointment – is more of a turf influence. Furthermore, he’s a half-brother to Bullheaded Boy (by Bullsbay), who did win 3 turf races during his career. The way this horse moves, with his high-striding action, leads me to believe that turf may be his preferred surface. I like the rider switch to David Cohen and he should appreciate the drop in class.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 5,6,8,11