by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 1A - 4
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 9 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 7 - 12
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 10 - 6 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: HANDLE WITH CARE (#6)
This race did not draw a particularly strong field for the level, as almost every horse has been well beaten in their recent starts against maiden special weight foes. Ascender appears to be the most likely candidate to take a step forward among those with turf experience, but I still think this filly is difficult to trust. Chad Brown first-time starters are typically well prepared and ready to run professional races in their debuts. That was not the case for Ascender last time, as she held up the start for a long time while refusing to load for several minutes. Once they actually got the race off, she broke slowly and was swishing her tail as she just appeared to be generally displeased with what was going on around her. She was spun very wide into the lane and ran on decently while never really threatening. Michelle Nevin takes over training duties for this filly’s second start, but she is just 1 for 30 ($0.35 ROI) off trainer switches on turf over the past five years. Danielle’s Pride and Union Patriot also have some halfway decent turf route form to build upon, but I instead ended up going with a new face. Handle With Care seems like a filly well suited by this surface switch. She raced very wide around the turn in her dirt debut before fading while not appearing to get over the surface terribly well. Now, she switches to grass, and she’s bred to handle it since her dam was a four-time turf winner and Tapizar has actually been a decent turf influence. There is no speed in this race among those with experience, so I’m expecting Luis Saez to send her to the lead.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7,8

 

RACE 5: PARANOIA (#1)
The potential favorites in this race are not very convincing. Animauxselle comes in with the best recent form, but she is always at the mercy of the pace and is going out for a trainer who has just a single win on the year. Banty’s Girl has prior races that make her competitive, but her lone turf start of the season was not inspiring. I think this is a spot where it’s wise to get a bit more creative. I’m taking a shot with Paranoia. Her dam was a capable turf performer who won three times on that surface. Excluding this filly, three of this dam’s four other foals to try the turf won over it, so Paranoia is certainly bred to handle the surface. Her lone turf start came in her debut against tougher maiden special weight company, so I’m willing to forgive that effort. Furthermore, she has just significantly improved overall since then, so I think she deserves another shot over it now that she’s raced into fitness. There is not that much early speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she’s quick enough to make the lead.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,9

 

RACE 7: TOSSUP (#8)
The Lynbrook Stakes is a difficult puzzle since the majority of the runners with dirt experience are coming out of very slow races. Three fillies exit the opener on June 14. It’s a problematic race for speed figure-makers to assess since the final time came up very slow in comparison to all of the other races on the card. Native Dawn ran well to win that race, but the horse who figures to attract the most attention out of that spot is She’s Trouble. She dwelt very badly at the start, which is a major concern, as she obviously has gate issues. However, she also appears to have some ability, as she somehow was able to rally for third despite giving away about 10 lengths at the start. Linda Rice has fantastic numbers with second-time-starting maidens on dirt. I’m using her, but there are others to consider. Positively Jean was arguably the most impressive debut winner in this field, but that win came on turf. While she does have more of a dirt pedigree, she’s still a wild card in this race. Midnightsalright never got involved while racing wide in her debut at Monmouth, but that race came against a solid open-company field, and Jason Servis’s runners have been winning at an astronomical rate. I’ll use all of these horses, but I want to bet the live first-time starter, Tossup. It’s always a good sign when capable connections display the confidence to start a horse’s career in stakes company, and this filly does appear to be working well. She easily outworked a stablemate on June 20 and appears to have an effortless way of moving through her drills, suggesting that she has some quality to her. Rick Violette is one of the best in the business with first-time starters. Over the past five years, he is 16 for 51 (31 percent, $3.80 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints. Furthermore, Tossup is bred to be a runner, as she’s out of a Grade 1-placed dam who earned more than $460,000.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 1,7 with 1,2,5,7,9

 

RACE 8: FOREVER DAISY (#3)
Spring Folly is clearly the filly to beat off her recent efforts, and she should appreciate the cutback to 7 furlongs. She didn’t run well in her first start of the season going this distance, but she may have needed that effort, as she has improved significantly since then. Goodbye Brockley, who beat her two back, returned to hit the board in a stakes in her subsequent start, and Purely Lucky, who narrowly defeated her last time, returned to run well against open company. She’s just a very logical favorite and is undeniably the most likely winner of this race. While I’m not against Spring Folly, I do think there is a viable alternative in this race that is going to offer some value. Forever Daisy has run slower speed figures than Spring Folly and has yet to actually win a race on grass in four tries. However, she has run better than it appears in her turf races. That was especially true back on April 21, in her first turf start as a 3-year-old. She was headstrong in the early going, and ended up making a badly-timed mid-race move up to chase the pace while going wide every step of the way. Since then, she’s been rained off the turf twice, and she never really had a chance to get involved last time in what turned out to be a paceless race behind controlling speed Awsum Roar. I think the 7 furlong distance is a bit better for her, and she gets a massive rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. At anything around her 8-1 morning line odds, I think she’s one to consider.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,6,8