PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 11 - 6 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 10:   10 - 1 - 13 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: COMPLICIT (#8)
I’ve been waiting for Complicit to run back since her debut, which was a deceptively strong effort. While her stablemate, the eventual winner, was making an early backstretch move, Complicit was instead reserved toward the back of the pack. While that’s typically the right move, she ended up getting shuffled too far back and was left with a lot of ground to make up late. All things considered, I thought she really was finishing well once in the clear, and she continued to gallop out strongly after the wire. If she gets any pace to close into here, I think she’ll be tough to hold off. I’ll use her with likely speed Defrock, the improving Soar Once More, and Misericordia.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 4: SPRING TO THE SKY (#5)
Dowse’s Beach is clearly the horse to beat off his win in his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. However, I don’t think he can control the pace again today with Spring to the Sky in the field. I know it seems like Spring to the Sky went off form last year, but he didn’t want to go long two back, and his last race was on dirt. Prior to that, he had been competitive in some turf-sprint stakes races. Furthermore, this horse has put in some huge efforts off long layoffs in his seasonal debuts going back a few seasons. If he breaks sharply, I think he could be tough to hold off.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,3,4

RACE 5: WALK AND TALK (#4)
There is a lot of guesswork to be done here as none of these horses has tried turf before. The one with experience who should take a step forward on this surface is Walk and Talk. They tried to get him on turf last time, and the race was rained off, but they should get their chance here. This horse is a half-brother to three-time turf winner Cosmic Tale and is sired by decent grass sire Stroll. He also makes his first start as a gelding in this race. He’s my top pick, but I’ll also use the pair of Christophe Clement firsters as well as No Worries Mate if he draws in off the also-eligible list.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,7,11

RACE 9: DIVERSIFY (#3)
I realize that Diversify may go off as the favorite, but I just think he is the most likely winner, and I’m reticent to pick against this horse. He has just run so well in his last two starts, and if he repeats those efforts, I think he’ll be tough for these to handle. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but Diversify showed that he was capable of sitting off another horse last time out, just in case Fox Rules decides to go out to the front. I’ll use him over Inside Straight, who lost all chance in the Met Mile last time but had previously been in great form at Oaklawn, as well as Governor Malibu, who is starting to run out of chances from me as a 4-year-old. The wild card is Papa Shot, who must get back to his sensational optional-claiming win in May.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 4,7 with 1,2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,5 with 4,7

RACE 10: SETHARY (#10)
There are many ways to go in this wide-open finale. My main opinion is that I want to bet someone other than Polar City. This horse was chasing a slow pace two back and didn’t have much of an excuse for backing up in his last race. This is a drop in class, but I still prefer others. The runner who interests me most is Sethary. This horse’s dirt races aren’t very good, but he is a half-brother to two turf winners, so he figures to move up with this surface switch. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 8 for 13 over the past five years with horses going from dirt to turf in maiden-claiming races (62 percent, $5.91 ROI). The other runners whom I’ll include are Townie, who was a little green when he faced tougher in his debut, and Mr. Euro, who was beaten by a good horse at Gulfstream last time.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,13