by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 11 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 9 - 5
RACE 1: HOPONTHEBUSGUS (#3)
The horse-for-course angle can get overblown, but A Dixie Twister does seem to have a real affinity for Belmont Park. She just doesn’t quite handle those shorter 5 and 5 1/2-furlong turf sprints at Saratoga, whereas the 6-furlong trip here is right in her sweet spot. Yet this race is at 7 furlongs, so she’s going to have to negotiate an extra eighth for the first time. Dylan Davis has developed a nice rapport with her and Mike Miceli is having a fantastic season, so I respect her current form. Her tactical speed should also play well in this field. However, stamina could come into play late. The other horse who figures to attract support is Bareeqa, and distance is the major concern for her as well. She won at a similar level last time, but now she cuts back to a sprint distance, and turnbacks such as this don’t often work. She doesn’t possess much early speed, so she’s likely to be outrun in the early stages. Danny Gargan does have her in top form so she merits some respect, but others seem more reliable to handle these conditions. Given my reservations about the favorites, I want to take a shot with Hoponthebusgus. There was a time when this mare would have been one of the top contenders in this race, but her recent form is not so encouraging. She was twice beaten by A Dixie Twister and Annie Rocks earlier this year and has since been claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci. This barn is not known for its work with turf horses, but they did send out a longshot to win a turf sprint earlier in the meet. I thought she was compromised by slow paces in each of her prior turf starts this year, so she may be in better form than it appears. The distance should suit her and it’s good to see Irad Ortiz take the mount.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 2: COOLBOY (#7)
Seven Is Heaven would be a handful if he were to repeat his last race. He actually did quite well to close for third while coming up the rail on a day when outside paths were favorable. The problem is that his prior efforts don’t exactly inspire confidence. He had excuses when encountering major traffic issues in his debut, but was alarmingly dull on June 16, and his inconsistency makes him an untrustworthy favorite. Furthermore, his lack of speed could be an issue in a race that doesn’t feature much pace. The Honest Toun seems like a threat. He showed promise in his debut, rallying well to be third while closing into a slow pace. That race’s runner-up Bassman Dave returned to win his next start and the fourth-place finisher Golani Brigade also returned to win with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, The Honest Toun was a major disappointment second time out, never getting involved after a poor start. Perhaps the gelding will make a difference, since he appears to be working better. Yet he’s another closer in a race that lacks pace. Therefore, I’m landing on Coolboy. This horse has had more chances than anyone else and is already making his third start of this fall meet. He wheels back just 4 days after getting trounced by open company rivals, though the winner of that race appears bound for stakes. Coolboy was hardly disgraced at this level in his two prior starts, once on turf and once on dirt. He has shown plenty of speed in his recent starts, so he may be able to open up an insurmountable advantage early. His recent TimeformUS Speed Figures on the dirt suggest he’s a major player, and he’ll be a price.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 4: SINGLE FOCUS (#3)
I’m not thrilled with Red Mule, who may be the favorite in this race. He showed some improvement in his first start off the claim for Rob Atras, but he failed to see out the 6 furlongs, so I’m a little skeptical about him stretching out further in this spot. Duress should appreciate this 7-furlong distance, since he didn’t see to have any real turn of foot on the stretch-out to a route distance last time. I thought he closed very well in his debut sprinting up at Saratoga, but he just ran out of real estate going the 5 1/2 furlongs. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Tom Albertrani, who doesn’t acquire many at the claim box, and I think he’ll be dangerous with even a slight step forward. You could also make cases for horses like Mr. Mike or Montatham, but I want to look outside the box. My top pick is Single Focus in his turf debut. This horse doesn’t have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, but I think he’s going to like it. Warrior’s Reward gets 10% winners with his turf starters and the horse is a half-brother to a turf winner. His dam handled turf and she is a half-sister to two turf stakes winners, so there’s plenty of grass influence in his female family. This runner showed some speed and came off the bridle fairly early in his first two dirt starts, and that’s sometimes how turf horses will run on the dirt. He’s really improved in his recent workouts, and I think we’re going to see a better performance out of him here.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
RACE 6: LOUGH NA MONA (#6)
Corey Scores and Plink Freud exit the same pair of races at Saratoga and the Chad Brown filly got the better of the latter runner each time. I suppose they’re the two horses to beat, but they’ve each had their chances and I won’t be surprised if a new face steps up and beats them. Corey Scores got a pretty good trip last time and was just no match for the very talented Lead Guitar, who ran away with that race. If I was going to take a horse out of that spot, I’d be tempted to use Pendolino at a price. She was shuffled back in the early going in her turf debut and was actually running on well when she was steered to the far outside in the stretch. However, I want to go in a different direction. My top selection is Lough Na Mona, who tries a sprint for the first time. Most trainers don’t do very well with their turf turnbacks, but that’s not the case with Christophe Clement. Over the past 5 years, he is 8 for 20 (40$, $2.44 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on the turf at NYRA. Lough Na Mona has lacked a finishing kick in her longer races, so I’m optimistic that she’ll respond well to the turnback. If she even repeats that 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned three back at Aqueduct, she’ll be a major threat.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,11
RACE 8: ENGLISH BREEZE (#5)
Crystalle is obviously the horse to beat in this Miss Grillo. She was controversially demoted from the victory in her debut, but she ran an awesome race that day, overcoming a slow start to win going away. She arguably took a step forward in the P. G. Johnson last time. While she again broke very slowly, she took Joel Rosario into the race while going wide around the far turn and finished well in deep stretch. Perhaps her gate issues will eventually cause more serious problems for her, but I don’t believe it’s a huge concern at this point in time given her running style. My only issue is that she’s likely to be a pretty strong favorite in this race, and I don’t think she has that much margin for error. She beat English Breeze by only three-quarters of a length last time, and that filly had some trouble of her own. While English Breeze broke well and got a much better trip for the first 6 furlongs of that P. G. Johnson, she had to wait in traffic at the quarter pole and alter course multiple times through the stretch. Perhaps she wouldn’t have ever beaten Crystalle, but the gap between them would have been smaller. English Breeze showed nice progression from her debut into that second start and she might be able to take another step forward here. If she’s around her morning line price of 5-1, I think she offers some value. As for the others, most are coming out of maiden races. I slightly prefer Selflessly of Chad Brown’s duo, since she might be suited to the stretch-out and was very wide in her debut. I could also use My Sassy Sarah, who was visually impressive when beating an inferior group of New York-breds in fast time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 2,3,6,8
RACE 9: ENGLISH HUMOR (#3)
What’s to Blame will probably win this race if he’s able to transfer his route form to this 7-furlong distance. Christophe Clement actually has excellent statistics with his maiden turf turnbacks, so this move makes some sense despite the fact that he’s bred to go longer. What’s to Blame hasn’t finished off his races that strongly, as he had no excuse to lose when hanging in the late stages back in June, so perhaps less distance will work in his favor. I’m hardly against him, but I also don’t want to accept a very short price on a horse like this. Loaded Joe is an intriguing alternative as he makes his first start for Rob Atras after contesting California-bred maiden races on the West Coast. He’s displayed the speed to sprint in his dirt races, but all of his turf efforts have come in routes, so it makes some sense that they’d try sprinting on turf with him in a spot like this. He’s been placed at a realistic class level and he would be a threat to the favorite if able to repeat his runner-up effort from June. I’m using both of these horses, but the runner interests me most is English Humor. This gelding is also dropping to the maiden-claiming level for the first time, and Mark Hennig does very well with these types. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 21 (29%, $6.09 ROI) with turf horses making this drop. English Humor found the 5 1/2 furlongs to be a bit too short for him last time, but he actually ran quite well in his prior start at Monmouth, chasing a fast pace before tiring. I think this runner has more ability than his record would indicate and he might finally be landing in a perfect spot.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,8,9