by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1A - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 10 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 8 - 4
RACE 3: HAVE ANOTHER (#6)
Have Another gets a real class test today, and I suspect that he’s up to the challenge. I had been a fan of this horse when he appeared on the scene last winter as a 3-year-old, but it seemed that he wasn’t quite as sharp when he initially returned from a layoff this year. That all changed with his performance two back, where he trounced a group of claimers with a dazzling stretch run. One of the things that had made this horse stand out early in his career was his ability to put in extremely quick closing fractions – the likes of which you would typically see in turf races, not dirt sprints. According to Trakus, on May 11, he ran his final quarter-mile in 23.52 seconds, and then last time, he had to put in an unbelievable final quarter in 23.23 to get up to win. That June 17 win was particularly impressive since the pace of that race was very slow and Have Another had to wait in traffic when attempting to make his move rounding the far turn. He can be a tricky horse to ride, so I like that Junior Alvarado is sticking aboard for this rise in class. I’m assuming it’s a good sign that he’s running back on relatively short rest, and if he shows up with another solid effort, I believe he’ll win. Two of his main competitors are second-time starters. I slightly prefer Call Triple A, who exits a fast win at Parx and has a right to continue moving forward for the always-dangerous Michelle Nevin. Devils Halo was visually impressive at Churchill Downs last time, but he has more of a turf pedigree, so I wonder if his future will ultimately reside on that surface.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,7 with 1,2,3,5,7
RACE 4: HIGH PROMISE (#5)
This race drew an incredibly competitive field. I’m a fan of Carom, who was entered and scratched out of an easier spot on Friday. I thought he ran well at a big price in his debut and now he receives Lasix for his second career start, but his task won’t be easy with so many viable alternatives signed on. I think you have to be afraid of Overnight Success given the way that Jason Servis’s horses are performing. This horse is a question mark at the distance, but he actually ran much better than it seems going 7 furlongs last time. For whatever reason, Irad Ortiz gave up position in the opening furlongs and ended up last around the far turn on a horse that actually has plenty of speed. I think he’s going to be much more forwardly placed this time and that makes him dangerous. My top pick is High Promise, who figures to offer some value. I know that he seems a bit slower than the top contenders, but I think he has more to offer than what he’s shown thus far. He ran well in some tough maiden races last year despite appearing to be somewhat unfocused. They dropped him in for a tag last time and he should have won that race, but instead got stopped badly on the far turn while caught in behind a tiring runner. He actually ran incredibly well to get up for fifth after that trouble. Since then, he’s worked very well and seems to be more focused in his training. I think it’s a good sign that they’re bumping him back up in class.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7,8
RACE 6: MAJOR FORCE (#4)
The pace of this race needs to be addressed. The Pace Projector is predicting that Polar Axis will control things up front in a situation favoring the early leader. I like the trainer switch to Michelle Nevin, and this horse has certainly run well enough to be competitive here. I’m using him, but I don’t think he’s one you can completely trust. There are many ways to go in this puzzling event, and I’ve decided to go back to Major Force, who has been in raging form for Linda Rice since turning back to sprint distances. The pace is a definite concern for this horse, but he has overcome slow paces in each of his last two starts, having done so by producing electric finishes. That was especially true in his 6-furlong race two back, when he ran his final quarter mile in a dazzling 21.78 seconds, according to Trakus. He gets back to that ideal distance here, and Javier Castellano has developed a good rapport with the horse. Furthermore, I like when Linda Rice runs these types back on short rest. Over the past five years, she is 6 for 20 (30 percent, $2.82 ROI) with last-out winners in turf sprints running back in 21 days or less. The other horses that I think you need to consider are Yummy Bear, who always shows up but rarely wins, and Fig Jelly, who gets a massive trainer and rider switch for this race. Unlockthepotential figures to take money for Chad Brown, but I wasn’t thrilled with the field he beat in his maiden score and I think he’s up against it off the layoff.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,8
RACE 7: SILVER STEP (#6)
This River Memories is a very tricky race. Even though I’m picking against her, I acknowledge that Estrechada is far and away the most accomplished horse in this field. She ran well in her return effort in the Sheepshead Bay against significantly tougher competition, and she figures to be tough to beat here if she merely repeats that effort. I would assume that the trainer switch to Robertino Diodoro is merely a function of the fact that they plan on campaigning her on the East coast again this summer. She’s the most likely winner, but this is a tricky race. I’m not thrilled with any of the fillies coming out of the May 20 allowance race won by Flower Fashion. The turf course was fairly soft that day and none of them sport prior form that suggests they can compete with the best runners in this field. Violet Blue seems like the dangerous newcomer, since she ran legitimately well off the layoff last time and may just be moving forward at the right time. I am somewhat concerned that no one else showed up in the race she exits, but she nevertheless ran an impressive speed figure. I’m using these fillies, but my top pick is Silver Step, who figures to go off at an enticing price. Chistophe Clement’s runners have really turned things around in recent weeks. Through Friday, he had won with 7 of his last 16 turf runners at Belmont after starting the meet off slowly. This mare’s two U.S. efforts have been disappointing, but I get the feeling that we haven’t yet seen the best out of her. Her French form is actually quite strong, as she was a Group 3 winner as a three-year-old. I think it’s important to note that her best effort last year came when they stretched her out to 10 furlongs in the Prix de la Pepiniere. Among the horses that she beat that day was eventual Just a Game winner A Raving Beauty, so there were some quality animals in that group. She hasn’t yet displayed that form in this country, but I like her stretching out, and she has trained more forwardly in recent weeks. It seems that Clement had used her as a morning target for some of his more well-regarded runners earlier in the year. Yet recently she’s picked up her training, having outworked stakes-caliber stablemate Palinodie in two straight drills coming into this race.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,3,4,7
RACE 9: SPECTATOR (#8)
The Victory Ride is only a Grade 3 event, but it would not be surprising to see many of these fillies return in next month’s Grade 1 Test at Saratoga. The deserving favorite is Mia Mischief, who has earned speed figures that make her significantly faster than all of her rivals. Talk Veuve to Me flattered the form of the Eight Belles last time when she returned to finish a strong second to Monomoy Girl in the Acorn. The only minor concern for Mia Mischief is that she may have to rate off the speedy Sower, but she did that successfully at Oaklawn two back. I’m not against her, but the price does figure to be short. Separationofpowers was a very talented 2-year-old last year, winning her debut at Saratoga in very fast time before defeating eventual champion Caledonia Road in the Grade 1 Frizette. She actually ran a creditable race in the Breeders’ Cup, as she had to rush up to contest the pace after breaking slowly from the outside post. I think this filly is talented, but over the past five years, Chad Brown is 0 for 9 with horses turning back to sprints on dirt off layoffs of 120 to 240 days. Sower was impressive in winning the Jersey Girl last time out, but that came against vastly inferior foes, so she gets a serious class test here. My top pick is Spectator. This filly was entered to run under Phil D’Amato in the Acorn a month ago, but they instead elected to cut her back in distance while keeping her in New York with Michelle Nevin. Over the past five years, Nevin is 15 for 57 (26 percent, $4.09 ROI) off trainer switches in dirt sprints. Spectator has run very well in both of her starts as a 3-year-old. She defeated some solid older horses when winning off the layoff going this distance in March, and she followed that up with a game second to Midnight Bisou in the Santa Anita Oaks. I think shorter is better for this filly, and she projects to sit a great stalking trip.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,10
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 3,4,6,10
RACE 10: NINJA BOYS (#5)
Surface Strike is probably going go off as the favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time. While he’s run his best races on dirt, I won’t be surprised to see him handle turf since his debut on this surface came against much tougher company. I’m not opposed to him, but I think there are other ways to go. You have to respect Time Expired off his last effort. Catch a Cab, who won that race, has obviously improved in subsequent starts, but there are no horses of that quality in this field. However, the horse I want to bet is longshot Ninja Boys, who gets on turf for the first time. This runner's debut came back very slow, but the winner returned to run significantly faster in his subsequent start, and two also-rans returned to win on turf. Ninja Boys got completely outrun early in that race but made up a ton of ground to be fourth. While he doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, his sire, Simmard – who has been a disappointment – is more of a turf influence. Furthermore, he’s a half-brother to Bullheaded Boy (by Bullsbay), who did win three turf races. The way this horse moves, with his high-striding action, leads me to believe that turf may be his preferred surface. I like the rider switch to David Cohen, and he should appreciate the drop in class.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,8,12