PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 10 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 2 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 5: RUBILINDA (#3) / CULPA MIA (#4)
I’m not against Rubilinda, whose debut was dazzling. She was off slowly and launched a sustained run from the back of the pack, easily inhaling the leaders as she drew off to an impressive score. She is justifiably a heavy favorite to make it two in a row, but I think there could be some value behind her. The other runner who is going to take money is Cherry Lodge. While she does have some turf pedigree, I’m not sure that she’s necessarily supposed to move up on this surface. Instead, I want to get Culpa Mia to complete the exacta at a much more attractive price. This filly ran well in her lone turf start as a 2-year-old, finishing behind subsequent stakes performer Bellavais. I think she’s more of a grass horse, and I expect her to really move up with this surface switch now that she’s a more mature 3-year-old.

Exacta: 3 with 4
Trifecta: 3 with 4,9 with 4,9

RACE 6: HOMEWOOD FIELD (#9)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems very likely given the presence of Black Tide, who comes into this race sporting a huge 129 Early Pace Rating after running off to long leads in his last three starts. He won those races in wire-to-wire fashion, but his task becomes much more difficult this time, facing a tougher field that features other speed types. There are two closers who can take advantage of the situation, Three Perfections and Homewood Field. Of the two, I prefer Homewood Field, who might just be a better horse. He beat a really solid field to win his maiden last time and can make it two in a row. Of those with speed, the one that I prefer is Cloontia, who did well to hang on for second after getting involved in a fast pace last time.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,5,7,10

RACE 7: AMERICAN GAL (#3)
This is a small field, but I think it will be a bettable race if the morning line is correct and Vertical Oak is favored over American Gal. In my opinion, American Gal is supposed to win this race if she shows up with her usual solid effort. Given a different set of circumstances, this filly could have been the champion 2-year-old filly last year. She undoubtedly ran the best race in the Breeders’ Cup, in which she made a premature, wide move from the outside post position and still held on well to be third. She got another wide trip in the Starlet last time and was hardly disgraced in losing to Abel Tasman, who has since stamped herself as the top active 3-year-old filly in the country. American Gal should appreciate the turnback in distance, and Simon Callaghan can win off layoffs.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 4,5

RACE 8: EVIDENTLY (#6)
The two runners coming out of the toughest race are Summersault and Apple Betty, who both exit a particularly tough edition of the New York Stakes. I thought Apple Betty ran the better race after getting a wide trip, and she’s more likely to appreciate the stretch-out to 12 furlongs. She’s probably the most likely winner, but I don’t fully trust her at a short price. I think this is a race where we can get a little creative, so I’m picking Evidently. I know that her recent form looks inferior to that of her competitors, but she’s had excuses. She got a ridiculous ride two back at Tampa Bay Downs when working out a wide trip, and then she was totally against the pace last time. She’s really best at these marathon distances, which she showed last fall when winning the Long Island Handicap. If Manny Franco can keep her a bit closer to the pace early, I think she can use her late speed to work her way into the mix. The price should be generous.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,8,9
Trifecta: 9 with 1,3,5,8 with 6

RACE 9: YABBA (#7)
I suppose County Club can win, but I didn’t love her debut, which came against a pretty weak field. She was subsequently a vet scratch at Indiana Grand and now winds up back at Belmont. Wesley Ward does do well with second-time-starting maidens in turf sprints (14 for 51 with a $2.27 ROI over the past five years), so this horse should be used somewhere. Sly Ranger will also take money. She has faced better fields, but I’m not necessarily convinced that she’s a turf sprinter. I’ll try to beat them with first-time turfer Yabba. I know that this barn isn’t necessarily known for winning in these situations, but this filly does look turf-meant. Her dam wasn’t much, but she comes from a turf family, and this filly is by Lemon Drop Kid. If she shows the same speed that she flashed in her dirt debut, maybe she can wire the field.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,9