by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 11 - 7 - 4 - 10
Race 7: 9 - 1A - 3 - 7
Race 8: 9 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 12 - 10 - 2
RACE 4: PAMINA (#7)
Too Cool to Dance figures to go favored off an easy maiden victory against overmatched rivals. She had proven her quality in her prior start when finishing just behind her highly regarded stablemate Reversethedecision, and she is the horse to beat. Best Performance also should attract some support given her robust resume. However, I have serious doubts about her desire to stretch out even further in distance. She seems like a filly that wants to go shorter – not longer – after she flattened out following a premature move last time. While I respect the favorite, I want to take a shot against these horses with Pamina. She took a big step forward in her return from the layoff at Monmouth last time. That day, she was thrown in against older fillies and mares, and she actually ran quite well despite not getting the easiest trip. She was wide for much of the way and seemed hopelessly beaten turning for home. Yet she unleashed a furious stretch bid once clear. She’s bred to relish added ground and she gets a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 6: BLAME THE THIEF (#11)
Siggie and Phone Funky Munky are the two that appear to have the most upside, as they each come off a maiden win. Siggie has a recency edge, having beaten open maidens in April. He was allowed to set a fairly slow early pace that day, but he beat a decent field and probably deserves to be favored. Phone Funky Munky returns from a lengthy layoff in this spot, but he ran well when last seen. While he did benefit from riding the hedge at a time when the inside was particularly advantageous, he still put forth a solid effort, breaking the race open with a mid-race move. I’m using both, but I want to take a shot against them with Blame the Thief. This runner’s form has been somewhat inconsistent, but you can argue that some of his best races have come on turf. He’s had excuses in his most recent grass starts, especially back in November at Aqueduct when he got a wide trip. Prior to that, he was running competitive speed figures against decent competition.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 4,7,10
RACE 7: IMMUNITY (#9)
Your Only Man is going to be awfully tough to beat in this race. If he brings his Gulfstream Park form up north, the others may be competing for a minor award. However, it isn’t exactly a sign of confidence that Pletcher immediately drops him in for a tag off some solid efforts against allowance foes. While I’m not way against him, there is a horse in this race that greatly interests me at a much more attractive price. Immunity finished far behind Your Only Man when they met last time out, but he was going out for a low percentage barn that day. Since then, he’s been privately purchased. This ownertrainer combination has had one other horse, and that was Have Another, who put forth a devastating effort to destroy a field going 7 furlongs a few weeks ago. Notably, Reynolds named a live rider, Javier Castellano, when Have Another won that race, and once again has gotten a top jockey, Joel Rosario, to pilot this horse. Immunity does have some back form to suggest that there is some ability to build upon, and he’s likely to be a solid price in this confusing race.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,5,6,7
RACE 8: CANDID DESIRE (#9)
Sudden Surprise is probably the horse to beat as he returns at the same level at which he won last time. This horse is notoriously tough to pass in the lane and his connections are clearly being realistic about his prospects at this point in his career. I’m hardly against him, but there’s another horse that I have to bet. Candid Desire actually has real ability, but he can no longer race competitively in the open optional-claiming races for which he is still eligible. Therefore, the move to New York-breds while dropping in for a tag makes sense. There appears to be some pace for him to close into, so if he hasn’t forgotten how to win races, he should be tough to hold off in the lane.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,6,8
RACE 9: BUY SELL HOLD (#3)
The turnback in distance makes sense for likely favorite Take Charge Paula. However, Kiaran McLaughlin has surprisingly poor numbers with turnbacks on dirt, and it’s not as if this filly has a major speed figure edge over this field. I’m using her, but I’m not totally confident that this win will come easily. The best alternative that I can find is Buy Sell Hold. I think you can make some legitimate excuses for this filly’s two efforts as a three-year-old. She probably needed her return two back in a race where she actually didn’t run as badly as the 14-length margin of defeat would suggest. She was ride and ranged up willingly approaching the quarter pole before just running out of gas against the extremely talented Mia Mischief. Then last time at Pimlico, she was steadied out at the start, putting her much farther back in the pack than she prefers to be. All things considered, she did very well to close for third that day against a tough group. I think it’s a good sign they’ve shipped her for this race, and I expect to see an improved effort.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7
RACE 10: LAST CHANT (#6)
Space Captain seems like the right favorite, but there’s not much about this horse that excites me. The switch to Michelle Nevin is positive, but his races have hardly been inspiring. La Manche also figures to take money off the claim by Mike Maker, but we still don’t know if this horse has any ability at all. I’m taking a shot against them with Last Chant. At least this horse is guaranteed to be a square price, and it’s not as if his turf races are discernibly worse than many others who will attract support. His turf debut came against much tougher company in an open maiden claiming race, and he actually didn’t disgrace himself after racing 3-wide around both turns. He caught a “good” turf course in his second turf attempt, this time at the right level, but he tired after setting the pace. That race may have been better than it initially seemed given Catch a Cab’s subsequent exploits, and I think Last Chant can do better still.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,8,10,12