PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 3 - 11
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 10:   5 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 11:   3 - 1 - 9 - 12

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Morning line favorite Closing Act (#6) makes sense as she stretches out in this Astoria following a closing debut victory at Churchill Downs. She appeared to beat a decent field that day, and really hit her best stride in the late stages to just get up at the wire. However, that race was coming apart at the end, and she didn’t earn a particularly fast speed figure. She’s going to be favored, in part, due to the fact that Irad Ortiz is aboard, and I think some others offer better value. Union Suit (#1) showed plenty of speed on debut where she blasted off to the lead and never let anyone pass. She’s another who didn’t run a fast race, but she has been privately purchased since then so there are some aspirations. I’m interested in a couple of debut winners from out of town connections. Low Mileage (#4) has to be considered after rallying to victory in her career debut at Laurel. It’s unclear if she was facing much of a field, but she got a little keen after a slow start and made an eye-catching move to take over in mid-stretch. I could certainly use her at the right price. My top pick is Living Magic (#5). This daughter of Justify is well-bred, being out of a dam who showed ability on multiple surfaces. She had most of her success on synthetic, but she was graded stakes placed on dirt. This filly debuted going just 4 1/2 furlongs, but she gave the impression of one that wants much more ground than that. She only earned a modest 53 TimeformUS Figure for that debut, but she won much more easily than the margin suggests after racing greenly. I think she has the most upside of anyone in here, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#5 LIVING MAGIC, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 3

Brendan Walsh sends out a pair of 5-year-old mares in this optional claimer going 1 3/8 miles on turf. Federalist Papers (#1) makes some sense as she returns from a layoff, as she definitely prefers these longer distances. Yet she’s a plodding type who tends to be somewhat pace dependent, and there isn’t much speed signed on here. She also has Irad Ortiz named, a change from when this race was originally drawn on Thursday, so she figures to be a shorter price. Wash’s other runner Ensemble (#7) drops in class out of a pair of Grade 3 events. She obviously had little chance against the likes of War Like Goddess last time, and two back she found herself in a race dominated by talented Chad Brown trainees. Prior to that she was an impressive winner going 12 furlongs on synthetic, so distance clearly isn’t an issue. Christophe Clement has also entered two fillies. Shad Nation (#5) will likely take more money off her runner-up finish at this level last time behind Miss Yearwood, who returned to win a stakes at Churchill. She figures to play out as the pacesetter in a race that lacks early speed, and she might have some upside second off the layoff. Clement’s other runner Parnac (#2) could be a much better price, and I think she’s one who might appreciate the stretch-out. She’s by a sire who is a good stamina influence, and her one-paced style could lend itself well to going longer. My top pick is Be Up (#3). She looks cheaper than the rest, moving up out of a $25k claimer. However, she was much the best that day, taking over with authority in the stretch. She had gone off form racing on synthetic prior to that, but she’s clearly a better turf horse. I also think she’s really going to appreciate stretching back out in distance. She made her career going 1 3/8 miles at Delaware in 2021 and obviously handled the distance that day. For whatever reason, she’s never tried a marathon since then, but she’s bred and composed like a horse that is supposed to love distance. She also has the tactical speed to work out the right trip in a race lacking pace. At a much bigger price, I would also use Peace Seeker (#6). She’s another who has had limited opportunities to contest marathon races but has handled these distances when she’s tried them. Some might argue that this 8-year-old’s best days are behind her, but she met a tougher field at the level last time and now gets a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano.

Fair Value:
#3 BE UP, at 4-1 or greater
#6 PEACE SEEKER, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 4

Daddy Knows (#4) is the horse to beat as he attempts to win his second consecutive race for this New York-bred N2X condition. He’s eligible to race here for the allowance condition since he competed for the claiming tag last time. This often difficult horse seems to have really developed a rapport with Katie Davis since getting claimed back by Ray Handal. He put in an excellent effort to hold on for the victory last time over the classy Hust of a Storm and the quickly improving Olympic Dreams, who came back to just miss at a huge price in the Commentator. His best race obviously puts him in the winner’s circle here, but he can be a little unreliable and still has that tendency to drift out in his races. I’m not thrilled with some of his main rivals who could take money. Six Percent (#7) figures to attract some support, but I didn’t like his performance at this level las time and wonder if we saw the best of him off the layoff back in January. I much prefer Jeremiah Englehart’s other horse Mason Mania (#2). He’s moving up in class out of an N1X allowance victory, but I thought he was game to get the job done that day, chasing down the consistent Safalow’s Mission. Horses have run back out of that race to confirm the speed figure, and I think a little more distance suits him. He ran a deceptively strong race two back against a tough field. That was won by the aforementioned Olympic Dreams, and he did well to make up some ground late in a race dominated up front. The price should be fair as he moves up in class. I also want to use Sundaeswithsandy (#3). This horse has been a bit of a pet lately, so I want to be careful not to overrate him again. However, he did miss the break in that turf start last time, and he was racing inside on a dead rail two back. I’m still skeptical he can ever get back to the speed figure he earned for that claiming victory in February, but he would be a handful here if he could recapture that form.

Fair Value:
#2 MASON MANIA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

This starter allowance affair is probably the most competitive race on the Sunday card. I found it especially difficult to peg a morning line for this race, as it’s hard to even identify a favorite. I suppose From Hello (#3) will take some money after twice running well at this level in her last two starts. She’s also getting a significant rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, though I can’t to anything the apprentice did terribly wrong in her last start. She makes some sense, but I’m not convinced that she’s exiting the strongest race and others figure to offer better value. It’s hard to know what to do with Dontmesswithtess (#1), who was the beaten heavy favorite in that May 12 affair. She obviously didn’t run her race that day, and she might just be a horse who is a little better on synthetic than turf. The 9-furlong distance of this race could be an issue for a few of these, but it doesn’t figure to bother Except Temptation (#6). This daughter of Temple City has gone even longer than this on a few occasions, primarily against tougher company. She showed some subtle improvement over the winter at Tampa, and then validated that form last time when she returned to this level, finishing strongly to nearly get on terms with From Hello. I expect another good effort on the slight stretch-out. My top pick is Always Laughing (#5). This is the type of horse that I usually pick against, since she’s coming off a perfect trip victory in which she arguably ran no better than Anileate (#11), who is also in here. However, I just get the sense that Always Laughing has more upside as an improving 3-year-old. Sure, she saved all the ground in that April 28 victory, but she also settled that in a furlong, rocketing from last to first before pricking her ears at the wire. She seems like one that has come to hand since the claim by William Morey, and she’s obviously found her preferred surface on turf. I don’t anticipate that the 9 furlongs will be an issue for this daughter of Mastery.

Fair Value:
#5 ALWAYS LAUGHING, at 6-1 or greater
#6 EXCEPT TEMPTATION, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this Grade 2 Wonder Again, sending out three fillies who all have solid chances. Revalita (#2) could go favored as she attempts to earn her first stakes victory in her third start in this country. She put in a deceptively strong effort in the Herecomesthebride, held up at the back behind a very slow pace before finishing best of all once set down in the lane. She might have been best that day, and she subsequently stepped forward in the Edgewood. That was arguably a tougher field than this one, and she ran well to close into another speed-dominated affair. She makes plenty of sense, and I prefer her to fellow French-bred Venencia (#3), who may attract some support with Irad Ortiz aboard. She completely botched the start when she returned from a layoff in Chad Brown’s stable last time at Keeneland, but did well to close for third thereafter. She obviously has talent, but this is a big step up in class and she may not be an enticing price. Spansive (#8) looks like the one to catch, as she attempts to lead this field throughout and earn her third victory in as many starts. She’s gotten favorable setups in both career starts, taking advantage of slow paces. However, she’s beaten some nice fields and runs like one that should have no trouble extending her speed to 9 furlongs. Some may view it as a negative that Jose Ortiz elects to stick with Revalita instead, but this filly should not be taken lightly. My top pick is Prerequisite (#5), who may be the biggest price of the Chad Brown trio. She finished far behind Spansive on debut at Gulfstream, but that race didn’t play to this filly’s strengths. She actually ran better than the running line makes it appear that day, as she was outrun early but was finishing strongly despite being compromised by a slow pace. She showed much better tactical speed when stretched out to this distance last time, stalking the pace before taking over in upper stretch. She opened up impressively before the gap was narrowed by Highland Grace, who came back to win last week. Her tactical speed should be an asset here and she’s already proven she gets the trip.

Fair Value:
#5 PREREQUISITE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11

I wanted to focus on some runners without turf experience in this finale, since I’m just not thrilled with those we have already seen on this surface. Ripe for Mischief (#12) has run some decent races, but he’s dropping in class off a subpar effort in his return and I wonder if his best races are behind him. There are two first time turfers drawn towards the inside who interest me. Willintoriskitall (#1) could be the favorite here off his 92 Timeform Figure on debut. He was meant for turf that day and got rained off, and he seems like one that is supposed to appreciate this surface. His dam has produced a turf winner, and he’s by a little known sire Superestrella, who was a turf horse and has produced turf winners. I expect a decent effort on grass, but he may not offer value. My top pick is another runner trying grass form the first time, Mr. Marlin (#3). I thought this horse showed some ability in his debut last year, where he reacted badly to kickback in the early stages but made a nice run through the stretch, quickly passing horses in the final furlongs. He didn’t run quite as well in his second start and then was always wide and one-paced when he stretched out to a mile last time. He now returns with a full set of changes, as a new gelding adding blinkers and Lasix. He’s a half-brother to two turf winners, and Paynter is an under the radar turf sire. He’s dropping to a realistic level and should improve. On the off chance that he draws in off the AE list, I would also want to upgrade Academy Choice (#14). This horse has a turf pedigree, and I thought he took to the surface well last time. He was just done in by race dynamics, as he chased a fast pace and tired in the late stages. The turnback should benefit him and he’s better than that last result suggests.

Fair Value:
#3 MR. MARLIN, at 9-2 or greater