by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 13 - 11 - 7 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 10 - 7 - 8 - 11
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 10: 8 - 3 - 6 - 1
RACE 3: LOGIC N REASON (#6)
This N1X allowance race only drew 7 runners, but it features several horses who appear to be quite promising. Leading that list is Linny Kate, who won her debut for Chad Brown back in February at Gulfstream. She appeared to be idling once peeled out to make her run in upper stretch, but she really kicked in to top gear in the last sixteenth. The filly she defeated, Mimina’s Team, returned to win, validating that performance. She obviously has a layoff to contend with, as do many in here, but she’s a major player. I could also use fellow Gulfstream maiden winner Lashara, who significantly improved in her turf debut. I’m not sure if she was beating a field of much quality that day, but she looked good doing it. Yet I’m intrigued by a couple of others drawn towards the outside. One of those is impressive debut winner Stolen Holiday, who won at Tampa. She got a relatively soft trip that day, setting a comfortable pace before drawing off with authority in the lane. That was not a strong field behind her, but she did it the right way and she certainly has the pedigree to suggest she can improve with experience. This dam has been exceptional, producing three Grade or Group 1 turf winners, Minorette, Master of Hounds, and Eishin Apollon. The only problem is that she’s probably going to be among the favorites. I believe we’ll get a slightly better price on the other horse that interests me, Logic N Reason. This filly ran deceptively well in her first couple of starts, as she had trouble in her debut and then was unfortunate to catch the talented Alms in her second start. She put everything together last October when she dominated a 7-furlong maiden event in fast time, earning a field-best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory. I’ll throw out her juvenile finale on dirt, and now she tries a route on turf for the first time. She’s certainly bred to handle a route distance and she’s getting Lasix for the first time. Furthermore, Christophe Clement's horses have been performing very well so far at this Belmont meet.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,7 with 1,2,3,5,7
RACE 4: SIMPLY MISS RED (#3)
Heavy favorite Ocean Fire may finally get it done this time, but I can’t possibly take this filly at a short price again. She really should have broken her maiden last time when dropped in for a tag at Gulfstream. It’s true that she did not get an ideal trip that day, but she’s just run out of chances for me. Furthermore, this race is arguably tougher than the maiden claimer she contested last time, as there are a number of lightly-raced rivals who have potential to improve. Leading that list is More Mango, who goes out for Jonathan Thomas. This filly didn’t earn much of a speed figure in her debut at Tampa, but she was pretty green that day and only hit her best stride just before the wire. This drop in class seems realistic, and Jonathan Thomas has excellent stats in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 11 for 25 (44%, $3.88 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in turf routes. I’m using her prominently, but there are also others to consider at bigger prices. One of those is Fleet Stepper, who goes out for the dangerous Christophe Clement barn. Yet my top pick is the returnee Simply Miss Red. This filly had no chance in her turf sprint debut last summer when she couldn’t make up any ground into a crawling early pace. Her only other turf start came at Saratoga last July and she didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day. She rode the rail early, but then had to search for room in upper stretch, was briefly stymied, and then couldn’t muster a rally late. On the surface of things, she hasn’t show much, but I think there’s more to this filly than we’ve seen thus far, and David Donk can have one ready to go off the layoff.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
RACE 5: MUCHA MUCHACHA (#13)
Elegant Rose has clearly earned the best speed figures of this bunch, but most of those were achieved while she was under the care of Jorge Navarro. She did run fairly well in her first start for Bruce Levine back in January, but she got a perfect trip setting a slow pace that day, and her form quickly fell apart thereafter. The fact that she’s returning for a $16,000 tag is not a great sign, and I’m trying to beat her in this spot. In my opinion, the logical other horse is Queendom. I know she hasn’t been terribly competitive in her recent starts, but she’s nevertheless earned a series of speed figures that put her right in the mix. She’s also getting needed class relief after facing nothing but NY-bred N1X company in her recent starts. She got in a prep on turf last week and now gets into the right spot against cheaper on dirt. In my opinion, she’s the most likely winner, but I want to take a shot with a horse who figures to be a much bigger price. Mucha Muchacha may get lost in the wagering here, but I think she fits well against this field. She improved second time out last year at Delaware Park, breaking her maiden in August with a reasonable speed figure. After that they put her in an unrealistic spot against tougher at Parx and she unsurprisingly faded after a rail trip. She’s returning from a lengthy layoff here, but I like that she’s shipping in for a barn that has had some success here. Over the past 5 years, Harold Wyner is 3 for 13 (23%, $6.41 ROI) at NYRA tracks. This filly has a right to have matured with the time off now that she’s a 3-year-old and it’s not as if she has to progress much from her maiden win last summer to put her right there.
Win/Place: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 7,9,10,11
RACE 7: SCUTTLEBUZZ (#10)
There are two horses with experience trying the turf for the first time who figure to attract support here. One of those is Walrus Gumboot, who flashed high speed first time out over the winter at Aqueduct before fading in the final furlong. There are many signs pointing to this one being better on turf, as she’s by decent turf sire Palace Malice, and her dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Yet, the elephant in the room is the trainer switch. For the most part, these trainer switches from Jason Servis to Kelly Breen haven’t worked out, so I’m watching to see if this one can hold its form. I prefer the other runner switching surfaces, Scuttlebuzz. This horse showed a ton of promise in his debut on the dirt at the end of last year, making a wild late run to just miss on Dec. 28. He wasn’t as successful in his second start in February, but circumstances were against him that day. He was off slowly and then launched a wide, premature move on the backstretch on a day when the rail was the place to be. Yet what’s most appealing about this horse is that he’s really bred to excel on the turf, not the dirt. He’s by good turf influence The Factor, and his dam was a two-time turf winner who was third in the Yaddo Stakes. This gelding is also a half-brother to turf winner Myheartblongstodady. As long as he gets some pace to close into, I think this Jonathan Thomas trainee will be difficult for this field to beat. The other horse that I want to use prominently is the first time starter Ratchet. Christophe Clement’s horses have been running well lately and he has solid stats with first time starters in turf sprints at NYRA. The sire Americain is a stamina influence, but this runner’s dam is a half-sister to Group 2-winning European turf sprinter Radiohead.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,7,8,11
RACE 8: SADIE LADY (#1)
In playing this race, you have to decide what you want to do with the undefeated Finding Fame. This filly will probably go off favored for Shug McGaughey as she seeks her third consecutive victory, and this is a decent stepping stone for her as she makes her first start against open company. Yet I am a little surprised to see her turning back in distance after she won going a mile last time, especially considering that she’s a daughter of Empire Maker. While that field looked pretty strong on April 10, her two main rivals failed to show up, so I’m not sure that she deserves as much credit for that victory as one would have initially assumed. I’m using her here, but I think this is a tough spot for her and prefer some of her older rivals. Rob Atras has a pair in here, and the one with the stronger overall credentials is clearly Fair Regis. This 9-time winner almost always shows up with a strong effort, but she is one of many horses exiting the Jason Servis barn and it’s generally been wise to take a wait-and-see approach with these. I strongly prefer Atras’s other runner, Sadie Lady, and she’s my top pick. I admit that I’ve never been this filly’s biggest fan, especially on the dirt, but she really took a step forward this past winter at Aqueduct. She was very game to win her last start, which basically boiled down to a match race with Palomita. In this spot, the Pace Projector is predicting that she can control this pace on the front end, and Kendrick Carmouche figures to take full advantage of that situation. If she returns in the form we saw over the winter I think she’s the one to beat. At a bigger price, I would also include the classy Honor Way, but she needs some pace help up front that she may not get.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 6,7,8 with 2,6,7,8
RACE 9: GANDY DANCING (#3)
Dream Bigger will win this race if he repeats that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time when taking down the Damon Runyon at this distance. Yet that performance is a bit of an outlier in his career. He’s been good all along, but he’s rarely shown that kind of dominance in his NYRA starts. He’s returning from a layoff here, as are many of these, and he does not face an easy task, as a few new rivals have shown up in this lineup and some others have stepped forward since last year. I also find it interesting that he’s still running in Rudy Rodriguez’s name, since he’s apparently been training with Todd Pletcher down in Florida for the past month. I’m using him, but I slightly prefer the other favorite Captain Bombastic. This horse seemed to take a step forward this spring at Oaklawn. Was it the stretch-out in distance that made the difference, or has he just improved with maturity? I tend to think it’s the latter and I don’t mind this slight turnback to 7 furlongs at all. In my opinion, he’s the horse to beat, but there are some others to consider. I’m very intrigued by second-time starter Gandy Dancing. This colt looked like a potential star in his debut over the winter at Aqueduct, drawing off to win by nearly 7 lengths against a solid field. That TimeformUS Speed Figure of 101 isn’t quite good enough to beat this field, but he has a right to take a step forward having had additional time to mature. Chad Brown doesn’t take a shot in stakes like this immediately following a maiden victory unless he’s confident and I think we’re going to seen improved effort from this son of Flatter.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 4,6 with 1,2,4,5,6