by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
RACE 1: FLATEXCEL (#2)
I suppose Laura’s Posse will go off as the favorite in this spot as he steps up to the N3L level after beating a weaker field last time. While his form has been steadily improving lately, his last performance was significantly aided by a strong rail bias. He may play out as the controlling speed in this race, but there are other front-running types to keep him honest up front. He may win, but I think he’d have to take another step forward to do so. Unsullied would be a viable alternative based on his form from the winter, but his recent efforts are somewhat troubling. He was claimed by Bruce Brown in March and is only resurfacing three months later, suggesting there was some issue to work out. I’d use him defensively, but I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Flatexcel. I’m somewhat concerned about the speed drawn to his outside, since he has been most effective when able to make the lead. That said, he’s been facing subtly tougher company than Laura’s Posse and some of his recent efforts are not quite as bad as they seem. He’s getting a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz for this race, and he should hustle him out of the gate to try and get forward position. As long as this horse is in contention at the quarter pole, I think he might be able to grind out the victory.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,5
RACE 4: SEVEN IS HEAVEN (#5)
Daddy Knows and Quiet Out East met up in an off-the-turf race May 12. Daddy Knows was making his career debut and finished well clear of Quiet Out East while quickly getting to the winner late. This Linda Rice-trained son of Scat Daddy has to be considered the horse to beat off that effort. He didn’t take to turf as well as his connections had hoped last time, but this half-brother to dirt router Mr. Buff is now getting back to the right surface. Quiet Out East ran deceptively well in that May 12 race after blowing the start and encountering traffic on the turn, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be as effective over a fast, harrowed track. Six Percent and Seven Is Heaven finished second and fourth in the last race on May 26. Six Percent ran better that day, making a strong run up the inside and recovering well to be second after having to alter course at the eighth pole. My concern with Six Percent is the distance since this horse does not strike me as a routing type and Brad Cox’s statistics stretching out maidens are merely mediocre. Seven Is Heaven disappointed as the second choice in that May 26 event, but I don’t think he ran quite as poorly as it seems. He was hung out very wide around the far turn and stayed on decently in the stretch while never really threatening. This horse had a ton of trouble in his debut and did take a step forward in his return from the layoff last time. He has to do better here, but I think he can take another step forward on the stretch-out. Despite being a son of Posse, his female family is very route-oriented, and this horse seems like one who may appreciate added ground.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 3,4,6
RACE 5: SENTRY (#5)
Argonne seems like the deserving favorite as he seeks his third consecutive victory. He wore down a good rival to win his maiden two back and followed that up with an even stronger performance against winners last time. Racing over a yielding course that may not be his preferred surface, Argonne was forced to make an early move to the lead and gamely held sway when challenged in the final furlong. He’s never raced beyond 10 furlongs, but he gives every indication that an added furlong should not be a major obstacle. I’m using him prominently since I prefer him to the other horse who is likely to take money, Lemonist. This horse is bred to handle longer distances as a full brother to Funny Kid, who won going as far as two miles against stakes company in France. However, Lemonist’s recent form is merely decent compared to a few others in this field, and I don’t like that he was a vet scratch a month ago, followed by a gap on his work tab. My top pick is Sentry in his return from the layoff. He got very good in the second half of last year, putting in a strong effort to run down the wellmeant Krewe Chief in that Aqueduct race at this distance. He then returned against Grade 3 company in the McKnight and found the rise in class to be too much to overcome. However, he also did not get an ideal trip that day, as he was too keen early and made a premature move to challenge for the front past the stands the first time. He’s better than that, and he appears to be working forwardly for this return.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 4,8 with 2,4,7,8
RACE 6: CLADDAGH’S RUN (#2)
There are many contenders in this competitive maiden claiming race. The likely favorite is Team Win as she drops down to this level after a pair of turf attempts against maiden special weight company. She didn’t run terribly either time and earned speed figures that suggest she certainly fits at this level. She should have been more aggressively ridden in her turf debut two back and then was just overmatched going a distance that is too far for her last time. Pletcher has good statistics with turf maiden dropdowns. I’m using her, but there are some more lightly-raced options to consider at better prices. One of those is Art Thief, who takes the same drop in class after facing slightly weaker maiden special weight fields at Monmouth. While she failed to hit the board in either of her first two starts, she was running on well at the ends of those races. I think she will improve with added experience and she gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. My top pick is Claddagh’s Run. She is returning for just her second start after running on well to be fifth in her debut. I actually thought she ran quite well that day and was just in over her head. The winner Valiance returned to take an allowance race at Monmouth next time with an improved speed figure, and third place finisher Dyna Passer also returned to win against a salty maiden field at Belmont next time out. Claddagh’s Run didn’t have any major trouble in that race, but she was running through traffic willingly and should take a step forward with that experience under her belt.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,10,11
RACE 8: DR. EDGAR (#9)
There are many ways to go in this highly competitive Poker Stakes. While I usually search for a price in a spot like this, I’ve landed on morning-line favorite Dr. Edgar. I don’t think any horse is going to be bet down too significantly in this spot, so I think we might get somewhere around that 3-1 price. I just feel that Dr. Edgar is coming into this race in top form and is the most likely winner. He ran well to win the Appleton two back, holding off a strong late challenge from Hawkish after setting the pace while never letting that foe go by him on the gallop-out. He then stretched out to nine furlongs last time in the Fort Marcy. That’s just a bit too far for him, but he actually ran extremely well to be second. The pace of that race was fast – indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs – and Dr. Edgar gamely held on for second after dueling Robert Bruce into defeat. Now he’s turning back to a mile, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. This is arguably the toughest spot he’s tried, but I just think he fits this race perfectly. I’m not trying to beat him, but I will use some others. Clyde’s Image obviously must be respected off his pair of Grade 1 placings. He probably appreciated softer ground in those starts, but he’s obviously in top form. Krampus did not get an ideal ride behind Dr. Edgar at Gulfstream last time and deserves another shot at a price. I’d even use Breaking the Rules, who was very wide in the Turf Classic last time and is overdue to start delivering on his potential.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,3,8
Trifecta: 9 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8