by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 3: 1A - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 2 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 10 - 9
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 10: 10 - 1A - 7 - 11
RACE 3: BERNAY (#1A)
White Flag is going to win this race if he gets back to his form from last summer, but that’s no guarantee given the way he finished off his 2017 campaign. He had a legitimate excuse for failing as the favorite in the Nearctic, as he may not have cared for the soft turf at Woodbine. However, his performance in the Turf Sprint Championship at Aqueduct in November was dreadful. White Flag was never in the bridle that day and offered up no finish in a race that was coming apart late. Many of Christophe Clement’s runners have needed a race this year, and I’m not willing to take this one at a short price. The most intriguing horse in this race is undoubtedly Bernay. This horse has spent the majority of his career running in route races between 10 and 12 furlongs, so this turn-back to a sprint distance is perplexing. He did win his debut going 7 furlongs in France and he easily beat eventual millionaire Flamboyant, who was second in that race. Yet, that was nearly 5 years ago at this point. The trainer switch from Chad Brown to Jason Servis is significant, given the latter’s proficiency with turf sprinters. He’s better than almost any trainer in the country at determining which horses will excel in these types of races. I also think it’s significant that there’s no tag attached this time. Bernay did show very good finishing speed in his U.S. debut, so it’s not as if he’s some plodder. It’s hard to have much confidence, but I’m trusting the connections.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7
RACE 4: FREEZE THE ACCOUNT (#2)
This is a tricky race, because I don’t trust either of the horses that are going to take money. Gravitating showed ability early in his career, but his connections are showing very little confidence as they continue to drop him in class. It’s possible he didn’t like the wet track last time, but he was supposed to win that race. Galatians ran a competitive speed figure last time, but he was never seriously in contention and the favorite failed to show up. They’re the two most likely winners, but there are other options at much more enticing prices. Rucksack is somewhat interesting, though it bothers me that his fastest speed figure was earned over a sloppy track. I’m instead taking a shot with Freeze the Account. The handling of this horse has been somewhat odd, especially for a trainer like George Weaver, who also owns this son of Ice Box. A low-percentage rider who gets very few mounts has ridden him in four of five starts. Despite not running well in any of those races, Weaver has refused to drop him in for a tag until now. That appears to indicate that this is a horse Weaver wasn’t ready to lose, yet he also needed to race him into fitness. Now he’s running in a more appropriate spot and a live rider is named. He comes into this race off an improved series of workouts, and it’s not as if his previous TimeformUS Speed Figures are that much lower than those of the top contenders.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,8
RACE 7: STOLEN PISTOL (#7)
Colonel Tom finally makes his return to the races following a visually impressive debut at Aqueduct last fall. He beat a decent horse, Collective Effort, that day as they both finished 9 lengths clear of the rest of that field. If he runs back to that effort, he will be awfully tough to beat. However, George Weaver is just 2 for 30 (7 percent, $0.67 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints over the past five years. Shiraz will also take money, but he’s run out of chances from me after failing to win too many races that he should have. I know Stolen Pistol looks too slow based on speed figures, but I think this horse has a right to take a big step forward in this spot. He’s had legitimate excuses in his turf races since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last summer. He was never fully clear in that stakes at Kentucky Downs, he was overmatched in the Pilgrim, and he didn’t care for softer courses in his last two starts at Keeneland and Gulfstream. Over the past five years, Joe Sharp is 5 for 12 (42 percent, $7.39 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints between 5 and 6 furlongs. I’m using him with the aforementioned two, and will also throw in Sparky, who has run well in some tough maiden races.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,8,9
RACE 9: FIRE AWAY (#8)
Oscar Performance has to be considered the horse to beat following a stellar three-year-old campaign that saw him win a pair of Grade 1 races. His finest effort last year may have come in the Turf Classic against older horses, when he just missed finishing second behind Beach Patrol in a tough field of older horses. He’s turning back to a mile for his four-year-old debut, and he has run very well going shorter in the past. However, he’s also been a horse that prefers to be placed up close to the pace, and there is speed outside of him with Black Tide and Voodoo Song in the field. Furthermore, he’s the kind of horses that has need a start or two to get into form in the past. Ballagh Rocks, last year’s winner of this race, appears to be his stiffest competition. However, he did get a very good trip last time behind Heart to Heart and this race came up tougher than last year. I’m trying to beat these horses with Fire Away, who really doesn’t need to improve much on his Danger’s Hour victory to beat this field. He’s been a completely different horse ever since Shug McGaughey turned him back to a flat mile. I don’t care that much about the dirt race last time, but it at least illustrates that he’s maintained very good form. Furthermore, I love his running style for a race that figures to feature an honest early pace. I’ll also use Made You Look, in addition to the favorites, since he really improved in his first start for Chad Brown.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 8 with 3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,7
RACE 10: WILD N READY (#10)
There’s a lot going on in this confusing finale. I suppose the horses to beat are those coming out of the maiden race won by Broadway Run. Both My Bronx Tail and Tapping Colors ran well that day and have to be considered dangerous once again. However, there are some others to consider. Anazara is a horse that I was waiting to see on turf after she made her debut last month. She was well-bet in that relatively weak race, and ran respectably to be third. However, she is certainly bred to move up on this surface, since her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winning turf/synthetic specialist Aruna, and her second dam is turf graded stakes winner Surya. The only problem with Anazara is that she is coupled in an entry with Keota, who doesn’t thrill me, thus eliminating any possibility of a price on her. My top pick is Wild N Ready, who turns back in distance for Norm Casse. This filly’s sprint debut at Saratoga last summer was actually better than it seems as she was a little wide and got shuffled back around the far turn. She finished well that day, but has focused on routes since then. Given the way she doesn’t quite finish off those two-turn races, this cutback to a sprint makes sense. Her pedigree also supports the notion that she should be better going shorter, since her dam was an accomplished sprint stakes winner, and this filly is a half-sister to turf sprint winner Uncle Tbone.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,5,7,11