PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 9 - 10
Race 9:   5 - 9 - 1 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

I don’t have a major knock against morning line favorite Brennan’s War (#5) other than the fact that he’s 0 for 14 in his career and will be a much shorter price than he was last time when he just missed at this level. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, but that was probably the best he has to offer. He also put forth his top effort off a similar layoff last year and then regressed, so I’m not totally convinced that he’s necessarily the right play as the favorite this time. If I’m trying to beat him, I want to explore some runners exiting different races. Academy Choice (#3) seems like a candidate to improve here as he turns back in distance. He was chasing a pretty swift pace going 1 1/16 miles last time and just got tired in the late stages as the race collapse. He figures to be suited by this cutback in distance, but he will have to work out a trip under Katie Davis. I could also use Waflr (#2) out of that same race, as he got briefly stymied in traffic on the turn and then was basically eased home. My top pick is Forty One Tales (#7), who tries turf for the first time. I don’t view Forty Tales as a great turf influence, but this is a subtle pedigree for turf improvement on the dam’s side. His dam ran reasonably well in her only two starts, both on turf, and she has produced one winning foal who was much better on grass than any other surface despite being sired by A. P. Warrior. This colt didn’t run that badly in his debut, moving up on the turn after a poor start and only fading while glued to the rail late. He’s getting appropriate class relief and seems like a candidate to do better on this surface.

Fair Value:
#7 FORTY ONE TALES, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Twenty Six Black (#5) in this Spectacular Bid division of the NYSS. This son of War Dancer was far more dominant in his maiden score than the neck margin of victory would indicate, as he was boxed in at the top of the stretch and exploded once he found room in the last eighth, galloping out well clear of the field. He validated that impression last time when easily handling the step up in class to allowance company. He wasn’t rating that far off a very fast pace that fell apart, and he made a strong move off the quarter pole to take over and pull clear with authority. He didn’t give off the impression that 7 furlongs would be any issue in those last two starts, and he possesses the tactical speed to work out a good trip. I do think his main rivals are the three next shortest prices on the morning line, but I simply view Twenty Six Black as a far more likely winner than any of them. Vacation Dance (#4) held his own against a solid field of open company runners in the Paradise Creek last time, but he flattened out in the late stages, so I wonder if he really wants to go this far. Gem Mint Ten (#5) obviously has the stamina for the trip and did well to hold on for second after attacking the pace against allowance company. Ramblin’ Wreck (#6) showed the potential to win a race like this as a 2-year-old, when he was competitive with open company stakes foes. However, I’m a little worried that he might get overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard.

Fair Value:
#8 TWENTY SIX BLACK, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 6

Lucky Lucky Luke (#5) is the only horse in the field dropping out of maiden special weight company, getting significant class relief for a horse who has shown some ability at times. He got a tough trip on debut when wide all the way, and actually ran pretty well at the state-bred maiden special weight level in his next start. He blew the start and rushed up on Mar. 26, and then ran to about the same level on turf last time. He seems like he can be a bit of a handful, so it might be meaningful that he makes his first start as a new gelding. James Begg is deputizing for the suspended Rob Atras this time. The options are limited if looking elsewhere. Old Point (#4) has had his fair share of chances and hasn’t been running quite as well since the claim. Union Tap (#6) has the pedigree to do better on dirt, but I doubt he’s going to be an appealing price with Irad Ortiz aboard. I want a different horse making the switch from turf to dirt. Mister Moore (#8) showed little in the debut, getting off slowly and staying on at one pace through the late stages. Yet he fared better in his second start, making a 3-wide march forward around the far turn before flattening out. He had little to offer at Monmouth last time when blinkers were applied, but that was a tougher field. He’s a half-brother to a couple of multiple dirt winners and he doesn’t look like one that's overly turf inclined, so perhaps this surface switch will benefit him.

Fair Value:
#8 MISTER MOORE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

The best thing Stolen Future (#9) has going for her in this NYSS Cupecoy’s Joy is that she is a confirmed turf horse, which is more than can be said about a lot of runners in this field. She was game to break her maiden over Loon Cry, who would win her next turf start and has some talent. She set a strong pace when she faced winners last time and just got nailed on the wire going 6 furlongs. She has to stretch her speed to 7 furlongs this time, and may get a similar amount of pace pressure. Though, she doesn’t need the lead to be successful, and will be tough to handle if she merely holds her form. Mz Big Bucks (#10) was no match for Stolen Future first time out, but that was just her debut, and runners from this barn do sometimes need a start. She stayed in an off the turf affair second time out, and showed improved early speed to get the job done. Even though she improved on dirt, she’s bred to be more of a turf horse as a full-sister to Grade 3 turf sprint winner Dancing Buck. She will likely have to withstand some pace pressure here, but I won’t be surprised when she comes through with another improved effort. Joeybignose (#4) figures to get somewhat overlooked here despite the fact that she showed significant improvement getting on turf last time. That was only a $30k conditioned claimer, but she ran very well within the context of the pace scenario, chasing fast early fractions in a race the collapsed. She finished ahead of the other speed rivals and should appreciate this turnback. My top pick is a filly trying turf for the first time. Red Moon (#1) began her career in Arizona, winning a pair of dirt sprints convincingly. Switching into the stable of William Morey last time, she took some money but reacted badly to kickback in the early stages, dropping far out of contention. Yet she hit her best stride in the lane, making up significant ground to be fourth. Now she tries turf for the first time as a daughter of freshman sire Redesdale, whose progeny have won 2 of 13 turf starts. The dam has produced a couple of runners who excelled on synthetic. She has some suspension to her stride and flicks her feet like a turf horse, suggesting that grass may be a viable option for her. She figures to get some pace to run at and should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#1 RED MOON, at 6-1 or greater
#4 JOEYBIGNOSE, at 16-1 or greater