by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 10 - 8 - 11
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 3 - 11
Race 9: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 3 - 11
RACE 1: DR. ALBERT (#3)
Mandatory Payout is likely to be a prohibitive favorite in this opener since he’s the only entrant to have done any competitive running in recent starts. He nearly won at this level May 10, finishing ahead of four of today’s rivals. He raced wide throughout, assumed a brief lead in midstretch, and was run down by his stablemate. If he merely repeats that effort – or any of his recent efforts save for the route two back – he is a very likely winner. I’m using him, but there is one viable alternative to highlight. Dr. Albert was placed way over his head in his first two starts against maiden special weight company. He flashed brief speed prior to fading in his debut. Then last time, he was in contention until the quarter pole, at which point he seemed to stumble, causing Camacho to pull him up quickly. It’s a good sign that he's back just five weeks later, and the drop to this level makes sense. As long as he runs as well as he did for the first five furlongs of his last race, he’s a serious threat to wire this field.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 2,3
RACE 5: DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS (#7)
Alley to Calvary may go off as the favorite on the basis of her superior speed figures from 2018. This is a fairly weak race for the level, and she faced tougher company in the majority of her turf starts last year. While she has handled seven furlongs before, her connections may be using this six-furlong event as a prep. She does not possess a great deal of early speed, so she figures to be outrun early. Furthermore, Bruce Levine is just 2 for 50 (4 percent, $0.83 ROI) with horses switching from dirt to turf sprints. Her main rival appears to be Avocado Toast, who gets back on the right surface as she returns from a layoff for Tom Albertrani. She won her maiden at Monmouth in gate-to-wire fashion as a 2-year-old, but I’m not sure she was beating the strongest field that day. She failed to put forth competitive efforts in her subsequent starts against tougher company, and now she’s dropping in for a tag for the first time off the layoff. I’ll use her, but I prefer others. My top pick is Dancingwthdaffodls, who figures to be a square price. She’s made only two starts on turf and has finished off the board both times. However, she’s run better than it seems on each of those occasions. She was facing a salty maiden field when she made her turf debut last June, and she stayed on decently to be sixth. Her only other turf start came last October, and she arguably could have finished much closer had she not gotten shuffled back early. This filly has improved her dirt form this year for new trainer Edmund Pringle, and I think she can be player in this turf event if she translates that improvement to grass. The reality is that she doesn’t need to run that much faster on turf than she did last season to have a serious chance to win this race.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,8,9
RACE 7: LABEQ (#9)
It’s impossible to trust Rhode Island, who was a bitter disappointment as the 7-5 favorite at this level last time out. He obviously has prior races that would crush this field, but I’m highly dubious that he will be able to get back to them. The horse to beat is probably Duncastle, who led for much of the way in a similar spot on May 16 before succumbing to a late rally from Hampton Point. Duncastle has run well in all of his turf starts, but I don’t fully trust him going this distance. The yielding course was demanding last time, but he rally had no excuse to lose that race after controlling the pace up front. I’m using him, but I prefer another grey gelding. Labeq finally gets back on the right surface after racing on dirt in his first two starts of 2019. The regally-bred son of Tapit was curiously placed in a 6-furlong event two back and then stayed on dirt again last time despite having never run particularly well over that surface. He actually performed better than it seems after setting a fast pace, suggesting he may be back in top form. He had faced much tougher company in his two turf starts last year and earned solid speed figures in both. If he gets back to either of those efforts, he’s a very likely winner of this race. Furthermore, he figures to be a better price than he should be due to all of those dirt races obscuring his superior turf form.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 9 with 3,7 with 1,3,4,5,7
RACE 8: RISKY SOUR (#1)
I don’t have any major knocks against Much Trouble, who is a deserving favorite. He was facing significantly tougher company in his two prior turf starts. He was somewhat lackluster last time after running well in his first try on grass, but the fact remains that either of those efforts would probably beat this field. Danny Gargan is adding blinkers as he drops in class and that’s not the strongest move for this barn. He can obviously win, but he’s going to have to deal with River Knight on the front end and he will have to negotiate the 1 1/16 miles distance, which may be a bit far for him. He’s just a little too obvious for my liking, which means he’s probably going to be an underlay. I’m taking a small shot against him with Risky Sour. I acknowledge that it’s a little ridiculous to pick a 1-for-42 horse, but I do think there is good reason to highlight this runner. There are few horses in this race with solid recent turf form, and Risky Sour appears to be in the best form of his career now as a 7-year-old. He showed immediate improvement once switched into Leo O’Brien’s barn last fall, earning a speed figure that would make him competitive in this spot. He then was overmatched in some tougher races, but he returned off the layoff last time with another solid performance. He actually finished a neck ahead of Phone Funky Munky, who is going to be a much shorter price in this race, and did so despite encountering significant traffic trouble while rallying. Risky Sour is a deep closer who needs pace ahead of him, and there are some cheap speeds in this spot. Leo O’Brien has already collected a pair of wins at this Belmont meet, and I believe this gelding will outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,11 with 1
RACE 9: POSSE NEEDED (#3)
The two horses likely to attract the bulk of the play are Bluegrass Jamboree and Honor Way. The former is likely to go off as the clear favorite after putting forth two solid performances at this level. She has yet to recapture the form of her dazzling win three back on Feb. 9, but she was riding a strong rail bias that day. She should finally get back on a fast track in this spot after encountering sloppy going in her prior two starts. Yet she also has to stretch out an extra half-furlong, and I’m not sure that necessarily helps her. She’s the horse to beat, but I think she’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. Honor Way probably should have finished ahead of Bluegrass Jamboree when they met last time, since Jose Ortiz unwisely stuck her on the rail approaching the stretch and lost momentum at a critical point in the race. The problem with Honor Way is her lack of consistency. She’s clearly good enough to beat a field like this, but she’s disappointing too many times for my liking since switching into Linda Rice’s barn. Furthermore, she may have really appreciated the wet track last time and she’s less reliable on fast ground. I’m trying to beat these two with Posse Needed. I acknowledge that she’s a bit slower than her two main rivals, but I think she’s heading in the right direction again. She did not run particularly well two back at Gulfstream, but Mark Hennig gave her some time and she returned to New York with a much better effort at Aqueduct. That Apr. 17 race was dominated on the front end and she put in a good closing run to get up for third while Honor Way faded to last. The slight stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs figures to help her, and she has done some of her best work over this Belmont Park main track. The pace is against her, but I think this field will be somewhat bunched, mitigating her disadvantage.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 10: QUIET OUT EAST (#6)
Daddy Knows is the likely favorite in this spot. At this point, everyone is tuned into how well Linda Rice does with second-time starters, and she’s even proficient with this dirt-to-turf move. This gelding actually ran quite well in his debut, closing from far behind after a sluggish start to lose by just more than a length to the superior Red Zinger. While he would be quite formidable if he translates that form to grass, he did get a pretty fast pace to close into that day. Furthermore, he’s bred to handle dirt as a half-brother to the talented New York-bred Mr. Buff. Sire Scat Daddy is a solid turf influence, but it’s not clear if this horse will do much better switching to grass based on his breeding. I’m using him prominently, but I’d rather take the runner who finished just behind him on dirt last time. Quiet Out East ran well that day, but he is really more of a turf horse. He displayed an affinity for this surface as a 2-year-old, closing well to be third in his second start despite racing wide over a rail-biased course. I would argue that his dirt performance last time merely signals that he has returned as an improved horse as a 3-year-old. He had been working very well coming into that May 12 race, and Christophe Clement was able to use it as a prep. Now he’s switching back to the right surface, and Clement is 6 for 12 (50 percent, $3.11 ROI) with maidens going from dirt to turf second off a layoff. If he improves as expected, he’s going to be a handful for this field. The other interesting runner to consider is Wacky Pal, who ran on decently against open company last time after a somewhat uncomfortable trip through the lane. This horse trained well over the winter, and may improve for the new barn while returning as a first time gelding. It’s also noteworthy that Christophe Clement’s other runner Uncle Curly draws in this race from the also-eligible list. His best effort is clearly good enough to beat this field, but I was not thrilled with his return to the NYRA circuit last time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,9,11
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,11 with 2,3,5,9,11