by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 11 - 1A - 10
Race 7: 3 - 9 - 5 - 11
Race 8: 2 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 9: 9 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 10: 8 - 14 - 4 - 10
RACE 2: MR. KRINGLE (#4)
This race becomes a little less apealing following the scratch of Molino, who figured to go favored here. Kid Bourbon makes plenty of sense as he gets back on grass after running a fine second off the claim in an off-the-turf event last time. He seems to be about equally talented on dirt and turf, and he was a little unlucky to lose his turf start two back when he was given too much ground to make up. I think he’s a major player, but I prefer another at a bigger price. Mr. Kringle has had a few chances at this level and is still looking for his second career victory. It might appear that his form has tailed off, but I think you can make some excuses for his recent starts. He didn’t handle the dirt last time and two back he just got the wrong trip as he was shuffled back early and forced to race wide around both turns. Going back to last year, he was competitive in races at this level while earning speed figures that would put him squarely in the mix against this field. I find it interesting that they’re putting blinkers on today, as the connections might be looking to elicit more speed from him in this fairly paceless event.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 2,4
RACE 3: MARAYEL (#7)
Both halves of the Welsey Ward entry are contenders in this race, though I actually prefer the filly Poppy Flower. She’s a filly facing males, something that she already did when second in her career debut. She got on turf last time but was no match for her superior stablemate Twilight Gleaming, who went on to finish a game second in the G2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot earlier in the week. I respect the entry, but I think there are some pretty interesting first time starters in here. The two that intrigue me most are Powerful Force and Marayel. The former is a son of Practical Joke, who through Friday had compiled a record of 5-3-1-0 with first time starters. There isn’t a ton of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but this colt sold for $300k following a nice 10 1/5 workout at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale. He appears to be working well and Motion can have a firster ready. I made Marayel my top pick. This Irish bred sold as a weanling for about $77k at Goffs before he was an RNA for $135k at the Tattersalls yearling sale last year. Sire Dandy Man was a multiple turf sprint stakes winner in Ireland, and in this country, he’s perhaps best known as the sire of G1 turf winner River Boyne. The dam was 0 for 2 in her career, but she has produced 6 winners, topped by this colt's full-sibling My Lea (4-for-12), a multiple G3 winner in Italy over 6F on turf. Brad Cox doesn’t have the strongest numbers with firsters in turf sprints, but this one looks well suited to this spot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6
RACE 5: FRACTORZATION (#11)
Snicket is probably the horse to beat, but how can you take a short price on a runner who has run over the turf 6 times and finished second in all 6 of those attempts? While she’s earning speed figures that do put her in the mix once again, she hasn’t really moved forward at all since she first got on turf last summer. Her typical effort will probably get her a piece, but others are more appealing win candidates at better prices. Kinky Sox makes a certain amount of sense as she cuts back to 7 furlongs, a distance over which she was a good second two back. However, she’s ridden by Irad Ortiz, whose mounts have been getting ridiculously overbet over the past several days. I originally picked the now-scratched Masterof the Tunes on top, but I'm happy to scratch into Fractorzation as my top selection. This filly figures to run better here after getting involved in a wickedly fast pace last time out. She basically had no chance after rushing through to contest that 21-flat opening quarter mile, especially considering that it was her first start off a lengthy layoff. She had been training well into that race, and I think she can do better here with a more moderate pace setup as the likely controlling speed. Seven furlongs is a bit of a question mark, but paces can often be more moderate going this distance than the shorter 6-furlong trip she tried last time. I also think she still has room for improvement as a daughter of The Factor, whose progeny tend to progress with age.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,9
Trifecta: 11 with 3 with 2,5,8,9
RACE 9: PENALTY (#9)
Raging Bull won that Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile in a manner to suggest that he might be the best turf horse in the country. He showed improved tactical speed to take up a position in mid-pack early and made what looked like a premature move before holding of all of the closers late. While that came up a very fast race (106 Beyer and 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure) I do have some doubts about the quality of some horses who finished directly behind him. The only horses who have come out of that Maker’s Mark to run well are those who contested the pace. Everyone who was closing (Ride a Comet, Sacred Life, and Field Pass) have all turned in disappointing performances in their subsequent starts. Perhaps Raging Bull can buck that pattern, as he wasn’t as far back as some in the early going, but he’s still never been the kind of horse that I’m keen to trust at a short price. The problem is finding an alternative, since I’m not thrilled with the likely second and third choices in the wagering. Get Smokin got a victory over this course and distance in the Seek Again last time, but he had everything his own way on the front end. This time he figures to face early pressure from Veronesi, who appears to be in here to set a pace for Raging Bull. I’m also not particularly fond of Front Run the Fed, who just hasn’t taken that step forward that you’d want to see from a horse who showed so much promise as a 3-year-old. He also has to prove that he’s at his best going this one-mile distance. Therefore I’m getting a little more creative. Penalty may simply not be good enough, and he may be a horse that’s best used underneath Raging Bull in exotics. However, I’m putting him on top to highlight him as a horse that could offer value in this race. He ran very well to win that paceless 7-furlong optional claimer last time. Trakus caught him running his final quarter in 21.99 seconds as he mowed down the leaders with an impressive late kick. This horse has always had ability, but he’s often been the victim of poor trips. That was especially true two and three back when he clipped heels early in each of those races. The Bill Mott barn has been sending out live runners and I think this horse deserves a shot in this type of race.
Win: 9
Exacta: 1 with 9
RACE 10: LASS (#8)
There’s very little turf form to analyze in this New York-bred maiden claimer to close out the card, though the race does get another contender as Social Whirl draws in from the also eligible list. Some of the horses who figures to take money, such as Byhubbyhellomoney or Highway Queen, are trying the turf for the first time, but I don’t see much turf pedigree with either of them. Stella Mars makes a bit more sense since she at least showed some turf ability in her debut and chased a fast pace the last time we saw her on the turf. She can rebound for Ray Handal, whose barn has come alive this week. However, she’s another that I’m not keen to take at a short price. I want some bigger priced options, and there are a few of those with appeal. Khali Magic is a little interesting as she gets another chance over turf. She was off in a tangle in her career debut, and she probably needed that race anyway, as Englehart rarely starts out his firsters on the turf when they’re well meant. She improved on the dirt in her second start, and she has a right to transition back to this surface as a full-sister to turf winner Big Al’s Gal. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Lass. I’m willing to give this filly a pass for her debut on this surface, as she got completely stopped on the far turn behind a filly who clipped heels, causing a major incident. Her rider basically eased her to the wire after that, so we don’t know what she can do on this surface. She has subsequently run better on the dirt, but she’s a half-sister to multiple turf sprint winner Outrageous Bet, so there is pedigree to handle grass.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,10,14