by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 10 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 12 - 3 - 5
RACE 5: NEWLY MINTED (#6)
If Newly Minted transfers her dirt form to turf, this race is essentially a done deal. She is the controlling speed in a race that lacks serious pace rivals, and all of her TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than the highest numbers of her rivals. The surface switch is obviously a concern, but second-crop sire Central Banker has begun to have some success with his turf starters. Newly Minted’s dam didn’t care for turf, but she is a half-sister to multiple turf winner Changewilldoyagood. This filly clearly outworked stablemate Blindwillie McTell when they went in company June 16, breaking off about five lengths behind that rival before easily drawing alongside while going the easier of the two late. She has a fluid stride that should transfer well to turf. It’s always dangerous accepting short prices on horses trying new surfaces, but it's pretty hard to fault this favorite. I’m going against my instincts a bit with this one, but I just believe she’s going to win. The main rival is Niko’s Dream. This filly gave a solid account of herself against open company last winter at Gulfstream, and she did well to overcome a wide trip to win her maiden against statebreds last time. She handles route distances, but this turnback to seven furlongs should be well within her wheelhouse. She has some appeal here since she is likely to be a square price despite owning the best turf form in the field. I’m using her, and I would even consider another first-time turfer, Kid Is Frosty. This remarkably consistent filly always seems to show up with a competitive effort on dirt. Frost Giant is 0 for 135 with first-time turfers, but her dam is a half-sister to a turf-stakes winner. Furthermore, Brad Cox has excellent statistics with non-maidens trying turf for the first time.
Exacta: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7
RACE 7: BERNIN’ THRU GOLD (#5)
This race will be altered by scratches since Fortin Hill and Dark N Cloudy competed Friday in an off-the-turf event. After those defections, Endorsed becomes a prohibitive favorite. This son of Medaglia d’Oro made an auspicious start to his career at Saratoga last summer, rallying past the highly regarded Ahead of Plan to win his maiden in fast time. While he ran a professional race that day, he did benefit from racing down inside on the best part of the track for most of his trip. For whatever reason, he failed to show up against a very good group in the Champagne next time out and was subsequently sent to the sidelines. He appears to be working very well for his return, but Kiaran McLaughlin is just 7 for 47 (15 percent, $1.40 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or longer in dirt sprints over the past five years. He’s probably the best horse in this field, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs one off the long break. I’m taking a shot with Bernin’ Thru Gold. I thought this horse just got the wrong ride last time, as Jose Lezcano elected to rate him on the stretch-out in distance. Bernin’ Thru Gold was racing too keenly through the early stages over a rail-biased track and had nothing left for the last quarter. This time, I think they would be wise to just blast out of the gate and try to take them all the way up front. He was very effective doing that against maidens two back, earning a speed figure that might be good enough to beat this field.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 4 with ALL
RACE 8: FUNNY GUY (#1)
Blindwillie McTell and Funny Guy have traded decisions in two consecutive New York-bred stakes events. They get a rematch here, but with a twist, as both are making their turf debuts. If the public assesses these two off prior form, Blindwillie McTell is supposed to be the favorite. He lost to Funny Guy in the slop two back and decisively reversed that decision over fast going in the Mike Lee last time. He never runs a bad race and is versatile enough to set the pace or stalk. I respect this horse, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to be as effective over turf. He was not nearly as impressive as stablemate Newly Minted when they worked in company over this surface last week, and he doesn’t have much pedigree to handle it. It seems as if Linda Rice may just be taking a shot to avoid racing against open company. I strongly prefer Funny Guy. This horse is by Big Brown, who is a decent turf influence, and he is a half-brother to turf-sprint winner Angel Food. He also worked on turf June 16, going in company with older horse All Systems Go. That stablemate was under pressure to keep up with Funny Guy throughout, as the younger horse drew away with his ears pricked in the lane. It seems like he takes to grass very well, and he would be awfully formidable if he’s able to transfer his dirt form to turf. John Terranova doesn’t have great numbers with non-debut runners trying grass for the first time, but he did send out recent winner Dream Friend at a big price. Funny Guy is my pick, but I would also use Thorny Tale and Smooth Tales, both of whom have some pedigree for this surface, along with proven turf horse Veterans Beach.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,10
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5,10 with 2,3,4,5,8,10