by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 10 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 10 - 12
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 13 - 11 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
RACE 4: PURELY LUCKY (#1)
Spring Folly and Cumbria finished second and third last time behind Goodbye Brockley, who will seek to win a stakes later on this card. That race was dominated by horses who rode the rail, and all three of these fillies spent the majority of their trips racing inside. Spring Folly at least finished well, indicating that she shouldn’t have much of an issue with the added distance. I’ll use them, but I want to take a shot against this pair with the 3-year-old Purely Lucky. As a daughter of Lookin At Lucky, I’ve felt that the longer, the better for this late-running filly. She just got outrun last time going seven furlongs in what was a very quick race. It also didn’t help that she was buried inside behind tiring runners at the quarter pole and had to pick her way through traffic. Purely Lucky showed promise as a 2-year-old but was undone by a lack of focus on a few occasions. She’s been more professional this year, and she’s drawn the perfect post position for this distance on the inner course.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,7 with 2,3,7,8
RACE 6: CYPRIANA (#2)
At first glance, this race looks straightforward. Piedi Bianchi ran some of the fastest speed figures as a 2-year-old and gets a positive barn change for her first start of the year. However, I do find it somewhat curious that they are not immediately tackling stakes company with a filly who placed in three Grade 1 events last year. Over the past five years, Todd Pletcher is just 3 for 15 ($0.79 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days with horses making their first start for his barn on dirt. She obviously can win, but I’m not totally convinced at a very short price. Behind her, this race is wide-open. I’m taking a shot with Cypriana. I acknowledge that she needs to improve, but I thought she was game in her debut back in January, earning a decent 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Something clearly went awry in her second start, but she has worked very well in the mornings since then. There is not much true early speed in this field, so Javier Castellano may want to ride her aggressively from the inside.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 7: WEGETSDAMUNNYS (#2)
Mentality is clearly the filly to beat. She ran exceptionally well in her 2018 debut in the Mizdirection despite an uncomfortable trip through the first half-mile. She followed that up with a win May 26 that was far more dominant than it appears. The early pace of that race was very fast, and Mentality was the only horse involved early who was able to stick around at the finish. If she repeats either of those efforts, she will be awfully tough to run down. Her main rival appears to be Goodbye Brockley, who ran well to beat allowance company last time but did so with the benefit of a perfect trip. I don’t mind the cutback to seven furlongs for her. I’m using both, but there are a few first-time turf starters in this field, one of whom really intrigues me. Wegetsdamunnys seems like a filly who could take a significant step forward with this surface switch. Jeremiah Englehart knows how to handle turf sprinters, so I trust his judgment in switching this filly to grass. She is certainly bred to handle it, being by decent turf sire D’Funnybone and out of a mare who won four times on grass. Her second dam is Mystic Lady, a half-sister to excellent New York-bred turf runners Fourstardave and Fourstars Allstar. Wegetsdamunnys ran very well to win last time despite not getting a great setup, so you know she’s in career form. She could get somewhat ignored in this confusing race.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,10,12
RACE 10: SPRING DRAMA (#1)
The most interesting horses in this race are all coming out of the 6th race on May 10. Both Spring Drama and Chestnut Street were outrun in the opening stages of that event for different reasons. Chestnut Street was a first time starter that just looked a little green coming out of the gate, and ended up losing contact with the field. She lagged well behind for much of the running, but did put in a good late run through the stretch. However, she never got close and only hit her best stride in the final sixteenth before galloping out strongly. Chad Brown typically has his first time starters ready to run pretty professional races first time out, so we’ll see how much she can improve. I prefer Spring Drama this time. She appeared to throw her head at the start, which caused her to get away about a length slowly. Rather than rush up through the pack, Joel Rosario wisely took her in hand and reserved her behind the main pack of runners. She had to go wide on the far turn when launching her rally, and actually did well to make up as much ground as she did to nearly get up for the victory. The thing that gives Spring Drama an advantage today is that she actually possesses plenty of early speed in a race that lacks much pace, so she can take advantage of her inside post position going this 9-furlong distance.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,10