PICKS

(updated for surface changes)
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 1A - 4
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   11 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 10:   14 - 2 - 7 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: LIGHTNING BUZZ (#3)
Play Big is the horse to beat off his best last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 93, earned when finishing second at this level three weeks ago. A similar effort certainly can win this, but I think he’s going to face a challenge from Lightning Buzz. His return from the layoff just 10 days ago was a better effort than it appears, considering that he was dueling through fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding in PPs) before putting away his early rival and was just overcome by the closers late. He had previously run races that would give him a shot here, and we could see an improved effort this time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6

RACE 4: SANDY’Z SLEW (#7)
Trainer Ben Colebrook ships Vici in from Kentucky for this race. He’s only started five runners on the NYRA circuit over the past five years, without a winner. However, one of those was Limousine Liberal’s second-place finish in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, so I would not be too concerned. Vici has run well in recent turf sprints and was legitimately pace-compromised last time out. I respect him, but I’m taking a small shot with Sandy’z Slew. I know he doesn’t win very often, but he loves this Belmont turf course, and his return race was not as bad as it seems, considering his wide trip. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and he can sit close.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6

RACE 7: LOVER’S KEY (#2)
I have no major knocks against deserving favorite Paz the Bourbon, but I’m far more interested in another runner. Lover’s Key has been steadily stepping up in class and keeps winning despite having received some truly ridiculous rides. When she won her maiden three back, she was needlessly put into a drive on the far turn, ended up drifting about seven or eight paths off the rail while alone up front, and still won. Then, last time, she made a premature middle move after a runaway leader and ultimately forced the race to collapse. Yet somehow she won again. She’s finally getting a rider switch here, and it’s a very positive one. Seven furlongs should be perfect for her, and she’s one of the few runners with speed in a race that is predicted to favor horses on or near the lead.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4,7

RACE 8: I’LL CALL (#11)
If he draws in off the also-eligible list, I want to bet I’ll Call. There isn’t much pace in this race, so Kendrick Carmouche probably will try to send him to the front from the outside post, which is admittedly not an ideal draw for this horse. However, he does have back races that would make him very tough here, and it’s interesting that the claiming tag is being withheld for this return race. The other horse to use is obviously Slim Shady, who makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis, who has awesome numbers with this move. Unfortunately, this horse just can’t find the winner’s circle.

Win: 11
Exacta Box: 1,6,11

RACE 9: TERRY O GERI (#8)
Generally, horses like T Loves a Fight are bad bets in these situations. He’s going to get bet off strong dirt races as he’s switching to a new surface. On the other hand, he does have real turf pedigree, and I get the feeling that he is probably going to run well. That said, he’s still going to be bad value. Of the runners switching surfaces, the one I want most is Terry O Geri. He also has a strong turf pedigree as a half to two surface winners. The difference is that he’s unlikely to be a short price. You can ignore his lone grass start at Saratoga last summer since something apparently went wrong that day.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,7