PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   12 - 10 - 8 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   9 - 5 - 1 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: SAINT TAPIT (#1)

#4 Triple Elvis could take money here in his 3-year-old return. He was a bit of a disappointment as a juvenile, losing each of his last two starts when favored at 4-5 and even-money. He did face a pretty good field on Sep. 30, as third-place finisher Mo Donegal came back to win and subsequently won the G1 Belmont Stakes. Yet he wasn’t meeting a particularly strong field of maidens last time and still came up short. He’s half-brother to G2 turf winner Made You Look, so he may ultimately want a surface switch. Brown sticks with dirt for now, and he’s the one to beat among those with experience. I just think he could prove vulnerable to a well-meant firster, and there could be a few of those in here. I’m most interested in #1 Saint Tapit, who debuts for Todd Pletcher. This homebred is by 13% debut sire Tapit. His dam Havre de Grace (16-9-4-2, $2.5 million, 111 Beyer) won three Grade 1s including the Woodward and was the 2011 Horse of the Year. All 4 of her foals are winners, including 3 full-siblings, and one of those, Graceful Princess, was a G3-winning dirt router. Todd Pletcher does well with 3-year-old firsters overall, and he is 10 for 28 (36%, $3.03 ROI) with firsters in dirt sprints ridden by Luis Saez over the past year. This flashy chestnut colt has been working well for months. Pletcher drilled him in company with Grade 1-placed Charge It on June 5, and with Grade 3 winner Wit back in March. It appears that this guy has some talent, and he looks dangerous if he can work out a trip from the rail. Yet there are other firsters to consider. #4 Golden Alchemist has apparently been working well down at Monmouth, and he’s a son of good debut sire Nyquist. Even #6 Upper Level and #7 Flute Master look a little interesting, as the former has posted some fast workouts and the latter is a son of Gun Runner with plenty of pedigree in the second generation.

WIN: #1 Saint Tapit, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 5: MY SWEET WIFE (#12)

#10 Blissful Change looks competitive as she drops in class for trainer Joe Sharp. This barn has had plenty of success in turf sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years, and she’s spotted realistically for her first start on this circuit. She was never really involved against a tougher field at Churchill Downs last time, but I don’t want to be too hard on her for that effort, as she had run better tree starts back at Fair Grounds. I’m not totally convinced, but she makes enough sense to include. Among those with early speed, #8 Get the Candy could be most dangerous. Stretching back out to 7 furlongs is a question for her, but she was facing a tougher field last time and goes out for the dangerous Michelle Nevin barn. My top pick is #12 My Sweet Wife. I could make some minor excuses for this mare when she was running for trainer Jorge Abreu late last year. She didn’t get the right trip on Oct. 22 going this distance, and then she was compromised by a lack of pace going shorter at Aqueduct. Since then she’s done a bit better racing in Florida, and now makes her second start off the claim for Peter Walder. I thought she ran well first off the claim in April when beaten by a quality rival in Passion Plus. This stable has had some success in New York recently, and I love this 5-year-old mare getting back to the 7-furlong distance. She won going this trip twice on the dirt earlier in her career, but she’s much more of a turf horse these days. I’ll use her with the two aforementioned runners, as well as first time turfer #4 Jacrodra’s Devil, who has plenty of pedigree for this surface

WIN: #12 My Sweet Wife, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 4,8,10

RACE 6: PROVEN HOPE (#4)

Morning line favorite #6 Southern Flag does own the best dirt form of anyone in this field, having earned solid speed figures in all three of his starts last season. He was also beaten by some pretty good horses in a few of those starts, particularly when turned away by subsequent stakes winner Miles D two back. He did achieve his best results going a little longer than this, so he has to prove he can handle a shorter trip off the layoff. Bill Mott is 8 for 56 (14%, $0.93 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. There are some intriguing first time starters in this field. #7 Impulsiveness probably has the best pedigree, being by Quality Road and a half-brother to solid allowance type Winter Pool. His second dam is the undefeated champion filly Flanders. However, that pedigree says he wants to go longer, and I got that impression watching his sales workout from last year. #8 Accretive has more of a sprint pedigree, being by good debut sire Practical Joke. He’s posted some nice workout times for Chad Brown, though winning first time out with dirt sprinters isn’t his best stat. My top pick is #4 Proven Hope, who has an experience and recency edge on the aforementioned contenders. I thought he ran deceptively well in his debut at Gulfstream in March, making a middle move into the race after getting shuffled back early. He ran on decently in his second start against a solid field and then sustained a wide trip on turf last time. I don’t mind him switching back to the main track and the addition of blinkers could make a big difference for a horse who has been a little green in his races.

WIN: #4 Proven Hope, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 7: RUNNINGWSCISSORS (#4)

Perhaps this race is as simple as #5 Deep Cover just getting to the front and wiring the field, as he was able to do against N1X foes last time out. A repeat of that performance will make him pretty tough for this field to handle, as that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure is simply faster than the numbers anyone else in this field has earned. However, he was aided by a yielding turf course that he obviously relished. He also could get some pressure here from #3 Not Phar Now, who seemingly has to go forward from his inside post position. Christophe Clement has the two most obvious alternatives in #6 Panster and #7 Phantom Smoke. The former probably deserves another chance after getting pushed out through the stretch last time before his riding just wrapped up on him. He needs some pace to close into, but should be running on late. Phantom Smoke is coming off a layoff, but was in great form when last seen, just missing at this level to the improved Dancing Buck. They both make some sense, but I wanted to search for a bit more value. #4 Runningwscissors interests me off his turf debut last time. While he finished well back in fifth, he got a pretty adventurous trip that day. He didn’t break that sharply, which then caused him to get shuffled out to the back of the field. Typically a speed, he got a bit rank at the back of the pack and ran up outside of horses to travel 4-wide around the far turn. He never completely threw in the towel, running on evenly late. I think he showed that he can handle turf, which isn’t a big surprise since he’s bred for this surface. Now he’s getting a rider upgrade to Luis Saez for low-profile connections and figures to be a generous price.

WIN: #4 Runningwscissors, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 5,6,7

RACE 9: SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (#9)

There are a few fillies dropping out of maiden special weight company in this $40k NY-bred maiden claiming affair. #5 Our Jessica arguably has the strongest credentials after running a solid second in her turf debut at the special weight level back in April. She didn’t fare as well on turf in her last couple of starts, but one of those came over a rain-softened course and then last time she was basically eased in the last furlong when clearly beaten. She’s better than those last couple of results indicate and can rebound here on the drop in class. I’m just taking one shot against her with #9 Smokin’ Hot Kitty, who also drops out of maiden special weight races. I thought this filly was running on well at the end of her debut despite having to alter course a few times in the lane. Then last time she again didn’t get the most comfortable trip, but was staying on decently despite getting pushed down to the rail in the stretch. Stretching out to a mile isn’t supposed to be a problem since she’s a daughter of Kitten’s Joy. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 7 for 18 (39%, $2.40 ROI) with maiden claiming to maiden special weight dropdowns in NY-bred turf races over the past 5 years.

WIN: #9 Smokin' Hot Kitty, at 3-1 or greater