PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 10 - 6 - 11
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   4 - 9 - 6 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 4: FROSTED ROSE (#1)
Hurricane Hill will beat this field if he gets back to this November 11 effort, in which he finished third, earning a superior speed figure while facing a significantly better field. Yet it must be noted that he got a very good trip that day, saving ground over a rail-biased turf course on the turn before angling out in the stretch. Yet he was very dull in his next start at Gulfstream, and now he hasn’t been seen in over 5 months. That November effort is a bit of an outlier in his past performances and I’m a little skeptical that Linda Rice has run this horse out of town so much. Yet he’s undoubtedly the most likely winner. The problem with this race is that there aren’t many logical alternatives. Wild William is hard to take off his last effort and Deputy Flag doesn’t possess any discernable turf pedigree. The one horse that I can make a reasonable case for is Frosted Rose. He’s too slow to win this based on past record, but he may be capable of taking a step forward as he turns back in distance. He ran well to break his maiden at Saratoga last summer and then got thrown into some tougher spots against stakes foes. They tried to stretch him out twice this year, once on dirt and once on turf, and he just had no late punch going that distance. I like him getting back to six furlongs and he’s supposed to get some pace to close into this time.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,8

RACE 5: ARMAMENT (#7)
The two horses likely to vie for favoritism are Walkoff and Lil Commissioner. The former is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of the pace. Walkoff got plenty of that last time when he rallied from far back to prevail in the mud. It did take a drop down to a bottom level claimer second off the claim for him to get back to the winner’s circle, but at least he got back on track following a poor performance to conclude his winter campaign. The waters get deeper here and there isn’t nearly as much speed signed on, but Cox’s runners have been firing and this guy has generally been one of the more consistent runners in this lineup. He’s a logical player in this spot, but he may need some help up front if he’s to achieve back-to-back victories. I’m less confident in Lil Commissioner. At first glance he seems like the horse to beat, as his recent form is solid and he’s consistently posted some of the best speed figures in this field. However, the elephant in the room is the trainer switch. Rob Atras does an excellent job, but horses exiting the Jorge Navarro barn have generally underperformed. This runner held his own in some tougher spots at Gulfstream, but it’s just difficult to trust that form given what we now know. I want to take a shot with Armament getting back to dirt. It’s interesting that Eric Cancel is sticking with this runner rather than Mills, whom he won aboard last time. Overall this gelding possesses the superior form and class lines, but he’s yet to reproduce his best efforts since the claim by Ed Barker. Yet you can make some excuses for his winter efforts. Then they tried the turf upon return this month, and while he does handle that surface, he lost all chance when he got steadied back to last after the start. This outside post position is perfect for him and he should fall into a great trip either on the lead or stalking California Night. As long as he gets an aggressive ride this time, I think he can take over from that rival be tough to reel in.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4 with 1,2,4,6

RACE 6: SELFMADE (#1)
The horse with the best turf form is Coragescontender, who ran surprisingly well in his turf debut earlier at the meet. Yet that was a six furlong race and now he has to stretch out to a mile. Furthermore, he was 58-1 that day and now he’s going to be a much shorter price for low-profile connections. I’m using him, but he’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at that price. I feel the same way about Bielefeld, who didn’t do much running in his debut and now will attract support merely because Irad Ortiz is riding. He will appreciate the class relief and can certainly win, but I don’t see the value there. I suppose you can say the same thing about Selfmade, who I actually made the morning line favorite, but I’m fairly certain we’re going to see a better effort out of his horse. He took some money in both starts over the winter at Aqueduct, but it just seemed like he struggled with that dirt surface. That should be no surprise, since his dam earned her only two victories on the turf and he’s really bred to be better on grass. He obviously hasn’t panned out as they’re dropping him in for a tag, but it’s the right spot given his prior form. I won’t be surprised if he shows a bit more speed this time, and I believe he’s the most likely winner.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,10,11

RACE 8: RISKY MISCHIEF (#4)
Jeremiah Englehart holds a strong hand in this Bouwerie, and he sends out the prohibitive favorite in Critical Value. If this filly merely returns in the same form as we saw from her as a juvenile last fall, she’s very likely to beat this group. She was very impressive taking the Maid of the Mist by over 5 lengths, and she even put forth a respectable effort against open company in the Grade 2 Demoiselle going a distance that may be too far for her. The one concern is that we sometimes see these precocious two-year-olds return a year later having given up their edge, either due to the fact that they haven’t gone on developing, or that their rivals have caught up. I respect her, but she’s not just the kind of horse that I like to bet at a short price. My top pick is Englehart’s other horse Risky Mischief. This filly generated some buzz prior to her debut at Saratoga last summer and she delivered that day, drawing off to win by over 7 lengths. She was one of the contenders in the Grade 1 Spinaway after that, but something clearly went wrong that day. She was getting out a bit on the turn and just never looked like the horse we saw on debut. Now she makes her return from a lengthy layoff and she appears to be training well for this return to the races. She has to get the 7 furlongs this time, but I don’t think she needs to step forward that much to beat these. I also believe she’s naturally faster than a horse like Courageous Girl to her outside, so she should get a good trip stalking Ilchester Cheetah. Big Q isn’t impossible, but it feels like she caught lightning in a bottle when she posted that impressive victory in the Key Cents, as her subsequent performances haven’t risen to that level.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with ALL