by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 12 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   9 - 6 - 1 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 7:   4 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 12 - 1 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: GROTON ST SCOUT (#1)
Satin Sheets may go off as the slight favorite here as she drops in for a tag for the first time. While it’s understandable that her connections wouldn’t want to try a N2X allowance race given how long it took her to break through at the last level, this is still an awfully steep drop. She hasn’t been seen in almost three months, and she was entered and scratched at least once during that period. She can win, but she’s hard to trust. Moment of Triumph seems more reliable after running a competitive speed figure when winning just nine days ago. However, she earned that victory against a woefully weak group, and this is a significant step up in class. While Robertino Diodoro has great numbers with last-out winners second off the claim, he hasn’t done quite as well when they run back on short rest like this. Since I’m not totally sold on either favorite, I’m taking a shot with Groton St Scout. She’s taking the same drop as Satin Sheets, but this one makes more sense given her string of mediocre performances in those tougher races. She’s run for cheaper tags in the past, and this class relief may be just what she needs. Furthermore, her recent form isn’t actually that bad since you can throw out the turf race and she may not have loved the sloppy, sealed tracks she encountered in those last two efforts.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,7

 

RACE 4: INALIENABLE RIGHTS (#1)
This is a very confusing race, as the eight horses entered have collectively made just six turf starts. Mo Diddley seems like the horse to beat as he drops to face New York-breds for the first time. I’m not sure what to make of his turf debut, in which he earned a reasonably fast speed figure but never seemed to seriously threaten the leaders. This is an easier spot, but this horse just doesn’t excite me, especially as the favorite. There are a bevy of horses switching surfaces, and many of them have some turf pedigree. The one I think looks most trustworthy on grass is Inalienable Rights. While his pedigree isn’t full of obvious turf influences, he is a halfbrother to a three-time turf winner, and Mission Impazible has won with 15 percent of his starters in turf sprints. Furthermore, Mark Hennig has decent numbers off layoffs in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 16 (25 percent, $3.28 ROI) off breaks of 120 to 240 days on turf. Inalienable Rights has the bouncy action of a turf horse and earned his only victory over a sealed racetrack in his debut. The other first-time turfers to include are Five Star Bunt, a half-brother to three turf winners, though none was spectacular, and Spectacular Kid, who has the best turf pedigree of all but goes out for low-profile connections.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6

 

RACE 6: FEAR NO EVIL (#1)
Okinawa and Epping Forest are likely to dominate the tote board action in this race. The former returned with a vengeance when turned back in distance off a 14-month layoff last time. She showed improved early speed and spurted away from the talented Mominou in the late stages. Both that filly and third place finisher China Rider have returned to win out of that race, flattering Okinawa’s dominant performance. I believe she’s the horse to beat, but she is likely to face early pressure from Royal Inheritance, if that one runs. Epping Forest is a more difficult filly to assess after a dull return performance in April. She had a right to need that race, but she must do better if she’s going to defeat the Chad Brown filly. I do think it’s notable that Christophe Clement’s runners were off to a slow start in New York when she made her return in April, and have started to show improved form. I respect both of these runners, but I think there’s an intriguing challenger that is likely to fly under the radar in this spot. Fear No Evil has subtly improved by leaps and bounds this winter. She first signaled that she had turned a corner back on Feb. 21 when she made a wild late run to nearly catch the talented Goldwood going five furlongs at Gulfstream, where it’s not easy to make up that kind of ground, especially in turf sprints. I can excuse her next effort since she just got lost in a large field and got badly steadied at the top of the lane when attempting to launch a rally. She shipped back up north to Laurel last time and really impressed me in that May 6 allowance race. A Great Time, who is a classy horse, had broken loose from the field and looked like she was on her way to an impressive win. However, Fear No Evil kicked into another gear in the final eighth of a mile and cut her down with a brilliant turn of foot. The pace of that race was fairly moderate compared to the final time, making Fear No Evil’s stretch move all the more impressive. I think she’s vastly improved and may be ready for this rise in class. It’s never a bad sign to see Jose Ortiz jump aboard a longshot.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,10

 

RACE 7: PECULIAR SENSATION (#4)
I’m not thrilled with the two horses likely to vie for favoritism. News Anchor is the horse to beat, but he’s likely to get overbet. He is a lightly raced colt for a trainer who knows how to get runners to improve with time. The only issue is that he really does need to get better to win this race, as his 2-year-old form does not make him particularly formidable. Shug McGaughey’s numbers off these kinds of layoffs on turf are merely decent. The other runner who will attract support is Elenzee. I suppose he’s the other one you want off his most recent effort, but I’ve never been a great fan of this horse. He typically needs everything to go his way in order to be successful, but his speed does make him dangerous. If I’m going to take a horse coming out of that fourth race on May 10, I want it to be Peculiar Sensation. This runner was basically doomed from the start that day, as the field was pretty bunched up and he could not get over to save any ground from his outside post position. He raced four wide all the way around the far turn, which is especially detrimental when the rails are as far out as they were on that occasion. I think you can forgive that effort because this gelding actually has some races from last season that give him a shot in this race. Furthermore, Gregory DiPrima has surprisingly strong numbers second off the claim. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 38 (21 percent, $4.78 ROI) in such situations, and he’s won with plenty of prices. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and he’s quick enough to be racing close up in the early stages.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,9
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,5,6