by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 9 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 2 - 7
RACE 3: PROFESSOR SNAPE (#1)
Shareholder Value is the horse to beat as he plunges in class to this $16,000 level. This was obviously not the greatest claim for $62,500 back in January, as he has struggled to recapture his better form in 2019. He’s the class of this field and can obviously win, but Jason Servis does not have the best record with these types. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 41 (32 percent, $1.39 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more on dirt. He wins at a high rate, but the ROI indicates that they are generally overbet. Furthermore, this horse does not possess a great deal of tactical speed, so I’m somewhat concerned that he will be on the chase while cutting back to a sprint distance. The Pace Projector is predicting that Professor Snape will be able to control the early tempo in a situation favoring the front-runner. I don’t love this horse, but I just think he’s landed in the right spot. He’s run well for a variety of trainers, so I’m not too concerned about the trainer switch to Robert Barbara off the claim. His last race was flattered when T Loves a Fight returned to win in a tougher spot this week, and Professor Snape should appreciate getting back on a fast track. He handles wet going, but I don’t think it’s his best surface. As long as he breaks cleanly, I think he’ll be difficult to run down.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 4: LIVIN AT THE BEACH (#6)
The two horses with turf experience who are likely to attract support are Kit Kat Katie and Morality Clause. I prefer the Jeremiah Englehart trainee, who is probably exiting a tougher race. Third-place finisher Classy Sadie returned to run well, albeit in an off-the-turf spot, and the fifth-place finisher also returned to improve her speed figure. I think she’s the horse to beat because Morality Clause is coming out of a weaker spot, as the runner-up from her race returned to run much worse at Keeneland next time out. Fancy Persuasion makes plenty of sense for Wesley Ward, who is 9 for 36 (25 percent, $2.56 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in turf sprints at NYRA over the past five years. Her sire, Iqbaal, is a remarkable 8 for 19 (42 percent) with 2-year-old firsters. The dam earned all three of her victories on turf and has produced a three-time turf winner. She’s intriguing, but my top pick is Livin At the Beach. This filly’s sire, Treasure Beach, wins with 11 percent of his first time turfers, and the dam was clearly best on turf, winning twice on that surface. Her best foal is Keepthedreamalive, a three-time turf winner who achieved success against allowance company. The dam is also a half-sister to two-time Grade 1 United Nations winner Presious Passion, a $2.6 million earner. Christophe Clement is 6 for 31 (19 percent, $2.69 ROI) with juvenile firsters in turf sprints over the past five years. This runner shows a nice local work last week and appears to be ready for his unveiling.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,8,9
RACE 6: QUARKY (#2)
This is perhaps the most wide-open race on the card. I suppose the recent maiden winners will attract support, with Surge Pricing likely to go off as the slight favorite. This gelding took a bit of money when he debuted for a tag in early May, and he ran quite well to win. He came through inside with a strong late kick, but he was doing so against a fairly weak field for the level. He obviously has upside, but I think others have shown more at this stage in their careers. Clyde’s Runner probably ran the better race to win his maiden in his first start as a 4-year-old. He had been in some tough spots last year and put it all together last time. He’s dangerous once again, but he’s also facing a much tougher group. I’m interested in some alternatives. Mad Munnys has to be considered a top contender after running a respectable fourth against a tough group of open claimers last time. He hasn’t had that many opportunities to sprint on turf, but he has shown a clear affinity for this surface. Cardiac Kitten is another I would consider at a midlevel price. He makes his turf debut, but Wesley Ward has excellent numbers in this situation. This runner didn’t show much on synthetic but put forth an improved effort on dirt last time. He’s clearly bred to be best on turf as a full brother to millionaires Bobby’s Kitten and Camelot Kitten. He’s dangerous, but my top pick is Quarky. I know he looks inferior based on speed figures, but I think this 3-year-old may be improving. He took a big step forward when he got on turf over the winter, and he’s continued to step up with each start. He outdueled two other speed types in that starter-allowance race at Laurel two back and did well to hang on for second. Then last time, he got outrun to the lead and stayed on decently late. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be loose on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and Joel Rosario is an expert at nursing these types along. Trainer Mike Dini has been known to send live runners to New York.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5,9
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7