PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   9 - 6 - 10 - 3
Race 8:   9 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 9 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Mo Rewards (#3) might now inherit the favorite's role after the scratch of Encourage. Lolita Shivmangal isn't a trainer whose runners typically attract that much support, but she does a fine job with limited stock. He got back in good form for Linda Rice and a repeat of his last race would make him tough. I also think Hang Tight (#1) makes plenty of sense in his current form, though his lack of early speed could be a hindrance in a race with no clear speed. My top pick is Cheeky Tico (#5). He was running well enough to be competitive at this level for Orlando Noda through the winter and into April. A repeat of that dominant N2L victory would give him a big chance here. He tried this level off the claim last time for Oscar Barrera, and got a strange ride. Jose Ortiz had him in stalking position early, but never asked him to run, and basically eased him with 3 furlongs to go. I’m guessing that’s not a true indicator of his ability at this level. Now he returns with a new rider at the same class, and I’m expecting a better effort. His tactical speed should ensure he works out a good trip.

Fair Value:
#5 CHEEKY TICO, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7

Carlos Martin sends out a pair of runners who could take money in this starter allowance event, and I have some questions about both of them. More Than Work (#5) was in decent form for Brad Cox, competing effectively on synthetic and turf. I won’t be too hard on him for a dirt race first off the claim for the new barn, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain his form. He also might have to run better than he did two back when he won that claiming event at Aqueduct. Penner Ash (#7) could attract even more support off his victory for a $50k claiming tag last time out. He’ll be tough if he repeats that effort, but he has to do so stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. Carlos Martin is just 3 for 36 (8%, $1.26 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll reproduce that form in this tougher spot. I think some others are far more interesting at better prices. Parquetry (#6) makes some sense as he makes his second start off the layoff for Barclay Tagg. He was just always too far back last time in a race that was dominated towards the front end. He had displayed some improving form in the second half of last season and can certainly put himself in the mix with a slight step forward. Urban Myth (#3) is also one to consider off his last effort, which came against a field of similar quality at Gulfstream. He really came to hand following a lengthy layoff for Jena Antonucci, so he has to prove he can hold that form for Keri Brion. There are also two recent maiden winners who merit strong consideration. Pioneering Spirit (#10)was a visually impressive winner at the $40k maiden claiming level last time, launching a sweeping move on the far turn to take over and draw off with authority. This is a much tougher spot than that one, but he has been effective going longer distances on the dirt, so this stretch-out figures to suit him. My top pick is fellow maiden winner Blame D Rule Maker (#9). This gelding switched over to turf at the start of his year, and has gradually improved with each start on the surface. He showed some late interest in January at Gulfstream before catching a pretty tough maiden field in February. He was no match for the talented Carl Spackler that day, but did make some good late progress. He found a softer spot last time at Laurel and ran a better than the neck margin of victory might suggest. He did well to reel in a heavily favored leader as the two drew 9 lengths clear of the rest. He runs like one that will appreciate this stretch-out in distance. Furthermore, Jorge Duarte is 8 for 38 (21%, $3.67 ROI) with last-out maiden winners over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#9 BLAME D RULE MAKER, at 5-1 or greater
#6 PARQUETRY, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Chuck Willis (#1) is undoubtedly the horse to beat in this 7-furlong claiming event as he drops in class. However, you have to be a little bit concerned about the drop in class for a runner who showed plenty of ability last year. He ran pretty well off the layoff at Gulfstream, only losing to a well meant Chad Brown runner. He’s now been for 3 months and is being given away for $40k, so there are some red flags. The other horse I expect to take money is Turn of Events (#3), who also drops in class. That’s a little concerning for a horse who got claimed for $62,500 last time. He also had a legitimate excuse last time, as he got badly steadied heading into the far turn, losing all chance. He has prior form that would make him very competitive here, but you do have to wonder if he can hold his form for the new ban. I’m more interested in some bigger prices. Soulmate (#7) didn’t run so well first off the layoff last time in an N1X allowance affair. Yet he might have needed that start following the break, and now he gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. He’s spotted realistically this time, and he’s had success going this 7-furlong distance in the past. My top pick is Original (#9). If he merely repeats his last effort against weaker he won’t be good enough. Yet I think he’s capable of better than that, and he’s run much better in the past. This horse showed real talent early in his 3-year-old season, even winning a stakes over this turf course. He’s gone longer in most of his starts, and was just placed over his head a few times. I actually like him going a little shorter here, since he physically looks like one that would be suited to this distance. He has the tactical speed to work out a good stalking trip and the price should be generous.

Fair Value:
#9 ORIGINAL, at 8-1 or greater
#7 SOULMATE, at 11-1 or greater