PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   6 - 10 - 1 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: ENDOWED (#4)

There’s very little reliable form in this maiden claiming opener. #2 No Code figures to take money for Todd Pletcher mostly because he’s disappointed fewer times than many others in here. It’s of some concern that he was so dead on the board in his debut at Gulfstream, though he ran like a horse that might appreciate more ground, and he’s bred to stretch-out. Though Pletcher has just mediocre numbers with this move and I wanted others at similar prices. #1 Nobodyridesforfree might be the horse to beat after facing tougher rivals at the maiden special weight level in his recent starts. I wish he had shown a bit more in those races, but he does figure to appreciate the drop in class. I want to go in a different direction with another lightly raced option. #4 Endowed made one start on turf last fall in which he showed very little, outrun every step of the way. Yet it’s possible that turf just isn’t his preferred surface, as he’s by Tonalist out of a dam who was Grade 1-placed on the dirt. He had trained pretty well for his debut, putting in some nice dirt works last fall. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 4 for 5 (80%, $4.34 ROI) with MSW to MCL dropdowns going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Endowed, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 2: TACO BEAN (#6)

Pat Reynolds holds a very strong hand in this race, sending out the two likely favorites. #1 Remembermom and #4 Motion to Strike both make plenty of sense in here. The former is coming out of some tougher races and will appreciate the drop in class. He’s earned his better speed figure going longer than this, but he did break his maiden sprinting back in February. Motion to Strike has a lot more speed than his uncoupled mate, but he’s moving up in class after just missing at the $16k level last time. He probably needs to do a little better than that, and he is a horse that has performed much better on wet, sealed tracks than dry, harrowed tracks. I want to go in a different direction with a horse who may get mildly overlooked. #6 Taco Bean has been facing significantly tougher foes in his recent starts against NY-bred allowance company. He was never going to race competitively against the likes of Key Point two back, or promising 3-year-olds Hot Rod Rumble and Who Hoo That’s Me last time. Prior to that he had run some competitive speed figures over the winter, and he was a decent second in his prior foray into the conditioned claiming ranks. This is a logical drop in class, and he’s going to be an overlay due to the low-profile connections. He also runs some of his best races when he can be forward, and there’s not that much speed signed on here.

WIN: #6 Taco Bean, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3: GASLIGHT (#6)

I really struggled with this race, as I can find more reasons to be against horses than to support them. #4 Stanhope has run solid speed figures going this distance, and will be helped by the scratch of main rival Fast N Fearious, who would have applied early pressure. He's still not the most trustworthy win candidate, though he has shown better staying power in his last two starts. I want to find some alternative, but those with turf form all have their flaws. #7 Propensity looks more appealing on paper than he does when I go back and watch his races. #2 Steelersfanforlife has some back figures that give him a chance, but he’s not a win machine either and may want more ground than this. So I’ll try to get a little more creative with first time turfer #6 Gaslight. This is either a clever pick or a desperate one. The horse does have plenty of turf pedigree, being by decent influence Wicked Strong out of a dam who has produced two multiple turf winners. Typically I’d avoid horses like this who could get bet off dirt speed figures on turf, but I’m not sure he’s going to take that much money after getting claimed away from Brad Cox. I know he’s talented enough to beat this field, and he strikes me as one that may handle the surface. I’d just need somewhere near the morning line price to get seriously interested.

WIN: #6 Gaslight, 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: LIANA B (#4)

I suppose #2 Union Lake is the horse to beat among those with experience based on her lone race from last fall. She didn’t take much money going off at 14-1 on Halloween last year, but she put forth a nice effort. Winner Radio Days came back to win with a similar speed figure, but others from that debut have since regressed, so I do question the veracity of the number. John Terranova is 5 for 25 (20%, $2.30 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s a contender, but I think there are at least two interesting first time starters in this field. Godolphin homebred #3 Amaretti is a half-sister to G2 Raven Run winner Caramel Swirl. Her dam is also a half-sister to G1 Met Mile winner Frosted. Bill Mott is 9 for 35 (26%, $3.26 ROI) with 3-year-old and up female first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. That May 14 gate workout was in company with 4-year-old filly Jane Grey, who won her only start at Saratoga in 2020 with a 74 Beyer. This filly had trained well in Saratoga last summer before going to the sidelines. My top pick is fellow firster #4 Liana B. Sired by American Pharoah, she’s out of a dam who was a precocious sort, winning a stakes in June of her 2-year-old season. This dam has produced 8 winning foals from 10 to race. The best of those have been effective sprinters on both dirt and turf, including Christiesborntorun and turf sprinter Blue Bahia. John Kimmel can certainly win with a first time starter. She was training very well at Saratoga last summer before resurfacing in Florida this winter. She’s shown ability in the mornings, and I would expect her to be pretty live in this spot.

WIN: #4 Liana B, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 6: NICHOLAS JAMES (#2)

I’ll be very interested to see how the pace of this starter allowance plays out. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring horses on or near the lead, but I see plenty of early speed signed on. However, I’m not sure anybody can run with #2 Nicholas James early. I know both of his prior efforts have come in routes, but he’s shown excellent gate speed on each occasion. That was particularly true in his career debut when he blasted off to the lead through an insane opening quarter. The horse that was pushing him early that day faded to lose by about 50 lengths, and came back to win his next start on the turnback. I know Nicholas James has always been better suited to sprints, and now he’s finally being entered at an appropriate distance. There’s no true closer in this field to pick up the pieces if things fall apart, so I think there’s a chance he just runs them off their feet. The two runners with the best recent form are #4 Life Changer and #7 Baltasar, and I don’t have a strong argument against either one. I did think Life Changer got a soft trip when beating a weaker field last time, and I don’t fully trust him to run back to that race. Baltasar is perhaps more reliable, since he showed improvement first off the claim in his last start, and was flattered when runner-up Capone came back to win. He’s drawn well outside the other speeds and looks like the one to beat. I’ll just try to wire the field from the front end with a horse who figures to be a better price.

WIN: #2 Nicholas James, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7: HANDLE THE TRUTH (#7)

This race has “chaos” written all over it. It’s hard to have any strong convictions given how unreliable many of the runners are. Both Rudy Rodriguez runners can win, but I’m not particularly fond of either. #2 Trinity Titoli could play out as the main speed from her inside draw, but I don’t have much faith that she’ll be able to fend off challenges. #6 Bella Domenica fits here, but she could get overbet with Irad Ortiz riding and it’s not like her form is superior to that of a few others. I preferred a couple of runners that should be rallying from off the pace. #1 Candy Monet makes plenty of sense on the drop in class. It’s not a great sign that she was claimed for $30k and is now risked for almost half that price, but she’s run plenty of speed figures that make her competitive and she’s won from off the pace going this distance. My top pick at a bigger price is #7 Handle the Truth. I know her overall form doesn’t look that compelling, but this rider switch to Luis Cardenas is a subtle upgrade. It did her no good last time when she was too ambitiously spotted against handicap foes, but I think she’ll fare better on the drop in class here. She actually finished ahead of Bella Domenica when they met three back, and she just didn’t get enough pace to close into when raised in class on April 28. She has run some competitive speed figures on occasion and is supposed to get the right setup.

WIN: #7 Handle the Truth, at 10-1 or greater
USE: 1