by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 2 - 10
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 8 - 9 - 6 - 11
Race 4: 9 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 1A - 3
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 10: 1 - 8 - 2 - 10
RACE 2: TALAKO (#4)
It appears that there’s plenty of quality in this N1X allowance race, which features a couple of stakes-placed runners as well as a pair of impressive debut winners. I’m looking forward to the second start of Talako, who looked like something special when he debuted at Tampa Bay Downs in early May. That appeared to be a strong maiden event, which is partly why he was sent off at 22-1 odds. Yet this son of Karakontie relished the turf that day, easily moving up between rivals on the backstretch before inhaling the leaders past the quarter pole. What I loved most about that performance was the way he leveled off in the final furlong, rocketing away from the field like he had something left in the tank. He appears to have trained very forwardly since then and I think this 3-year-old will be one to follow beyond this race if he passes this test. While I believe he has upside, the horse with proven form is Get Smokin. He’s run extremely well in a few stakes down at Gulfstream, particularly last time when he got involved in a heated early duel and still hung on until the very late stages. The one-turn mile should be perfect for him and it’s not as if there’s a ton of speed in this field. I think he’ll be tough to run down. Obiously, the other horse who figures to attract money in here is Domestic Spending. Yet this gelding didn’t run nearly as fast as Talako in his debut. That said, the race has come up stronger than it might have initially seemed as a number of those who finished behind him have since returned to improve. I get the sense that he’s the kind of horse that may ultimately relish more ground, and unlike the others he has to deal with a significant layoff. Yet he’s clearly dangerous.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with 1,6,7,8
RACE 5: MICROSECOND (#2)
The horse with the best speed figures in this spot is Dancers for Token, but he’s also had the most chances of any of these. I like this horse and you can make the case that he’s been in the wrongs spots too many times. He really needs New York-bred company and this one-mile distance to be most effective, and he’s only seen those conditions twice. He disappointed as the even-money choice when last seen, but a couple of others really stepped forward that day and he actually earned his career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I’m using him, but I think there’s one rival who has a chance to take a big step forward. Microsecond made his debut for Rudy Rodriguez back in March and put in a solid effort despite getting sent off at 9-1 odds, nearly hanging on for the victory in a blanket finish. It’s encouraging that he did so well going 6 furlongs as a son of Micromanage, who himself was a dirt marathoner. As a sire, Micromanage has done better with his progeny that have stretched out, compiling a record of 5 for 23 with all of his route starters thus far. This gelding is a massive specimen and appears to be training well for new conditioner Todd Pletcher, who has taken over a number of the Repole horses. One of his recent workouts was actually in company with stakes winner Dream Bigger and he held his own against that rival. Furthermore, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of early speed in this field, so he figures to work out the right trip.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,8,9
Trifecta: 2 with 9 with 1,4,7,8
RACE 7: DANTE’S FIRE (#4)
There are many contenders to consider in this New York-bred allowance event. Graded On a Curve figures to attract support given the Chad Brown factor, but he has run a series of speed figures that make him the horse to beat, so he probably deserves to the favorite. The issue with him is that he’s been in some spots where he should have won before and he’s just been a little disappointing, struggling to break through at this level. I’m using him, but I think others offer better value. Jack the Cat has significantly improved over the winter at Tampa Bay Downs, doing so against some solid open company fields. It remains to be seen if he can transfer that form to New York for trainer Ray Handal, but he’ll be a major factor here if he does. In looking for alternatives to this pair, I’m most interested in the newly turned 3-year-olds. One horse who could take a step forward here is Giant Shoes getting on turf for the first time. Brad Cox has outstanding statistics with his first time turfers and this one does have turf pedigree on the dam’s side, though Giant Surprise isn’t much of an influence. My top selection is Dante’s Fire, another horse making his 3-year-old debut. This horse showed some promise as a 2-year-old, but progeny of Temple City tend to do better with maturity. He really appreciated the opportunity to stretch out in his final two starts of 2019, running a good third when closing into a very slow pace on Nov. 2 before breaking through in his final start of the year. He’s a little light on speed figures, but he should have taken a step forward during his time away from the races. Mike Maker is 12 for 53 (23%, $2.43 ROI) with horses coming off breaks of 150 to 300 days in turf routes over the past 5 years.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,8
RACE 8: WON AND DONE (#2)
Likely favorite Mr. Dougie Fresh is the real enigma in this race. At his best, he would crush a field like this, but his top form was achieved for the Jason Servis barn, and you have to be at least a little skeptical about the runners exiting that stable. Rob Atras placed him in a tough spot off the claim back, and while he was never going to beat Mind Control, the speed figure regression does not inspire confidence. Perhaps the drop in class will wake him up, but it seems like the connections may just be acknowledging that they made a bad claim. He’s hard to completely dismiss, since even a subpar effort could win this field, but he’s still somewhat of a wild card; tough call. One of his main rivals appears to be Summer Bourbon. Consistency has been an issue for this guy throughout his career, but he has put forth some big efforts for Rudy Rodriguez in the past and it seems like this barn got him on the right track once again over the winter at Aqueduct. He was beating a weaker field two back but did it in fast time, and carried that form forward into a tougher optional claiming spot. A repeat of that last performance makes him a major player here, especially if some of his more volatile rivals don’t show up. Furthermore, he figures to work out a good stalking trip. I’m using both of these runners, but my top pick is the Pennsylvania shipper Won and Done. If not for that last outing, he might be the favorite in this spot based on his stellar form from the second half of 2019. He is a horse who typically performs best when he’s in the hunt right from the start, so the fact that he was bumped off stride and forced to the back of the pack in the early stages at Penn National last time seems like a legitimate excuse. It’s still fair to wonder if he’ll be as consistent for this current trainer after achieving most of his success for a high-percentage barn last year. That said, he has an aggressive rider on board and is quick enough to make the front here.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5,6
RACE 9: DELAWARE (#4)
The Chad Brown runner who figures to attract the most support in this 7-furlong First Defence is Flavius, who drops out of the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, in which he finished behind yesterday’s Fort Marcy winner Instilled Regard. This horse did win his debut going 7 furlongs back in 2017, so it’s possible that he won’t mind this turnback in distance. However, he was one that was cut out to go longer distances in Europe so it’s a little curious that Chad Brown is taking this shot in a shorter race. I’m using him prominently, but I give some others the slight edge at better prices. Sombeyay certainly seems dangerous in a spot like this. Seven furlongs should be an ideal distance for a horse who has been competitive going shorter in the past. He couldn’t quite hang on when passed late by his stablemate Social Paranoia in the Appleton last time, but he arguably ran the best race that day after making the first move into a contested pace. Furthermore, there isn’t that much speed signed on for this race, especially after the expected scratch of Jakarta, so he should be sitting in a good position up close to the pace. I think he’s the horse to beat, but my top pick is actually the other Chad Brown runner, Delaware. This horse is making his first start in this country after getting very good in the latter half of 2019. He was visually impressive winning a pair of stakes in France over the summer before just coming up empty against a tougher field in a Group 1. Now he lands in Chad Brown’s barn, and this trainer has had success with other runners in this family, including his dam’s half-sister Proviso. This horse seems to have a nice turn of foot, so I actually like this turnback to 7 furlongs, and he appears to be training well for his U.S. debut.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,7,14
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2,5,7,9,14