by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 10 - 5 - 9 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 9 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 5 - 10 - 1 - 6
RACE 2: MAKE MOTIME (#7)
With the scratch of strong favorite The Postmaster, this race becomes more wide open. I suppose Crazy Life might inherit the favorite's role due to his connections, but he's not the kind of horse that I want to take at a short price. Make Motime goes out for low-profile connections and may get somewhat overlooked in this spot. The son of Uncle Mo gets Lasix and switches surfaces off the layoff. He was facing some tough fields late last year and did not run that poorly in either start. His sire is 14 percent with first-time turfers and his dam was unraced, but his lone half-sibling Violent Times ran well on turf despite never winning over it. Furthermore, his second dam Time Reveals All was stakes-placed on grass, winning 2 of 3 starts on that surface. This horse has a big stride with a turfy way of moving in his dirt races, and I think this surface switch could wake him up. Others to consider include Opt, who has plenty of turf pedigree and Golconda, who moves up on the turf and fits well in this weak spot. I could even throw in The Happy Giant, who faced better horses in some slow turf races as a 2-year-old.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6,8
RACE 4: PEGGY SUE (#1)
She’s Not Bluffing is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot. A pair of turf experiments didn't work out, but now she gets back on her preferred surface. She was facing tougher maiden special weight fields in her first two starts and was hardly disgraced on either occasion. The drop in for a $25,000 tag is somewhat of a concern, but if she brings her maiden special weight form to this cheaper race, she's going to be awfully tough to beat. Some may view Too Many Tales as her main rival. This filly returns from a 2 ½-month layoff after running twice within a week at Aqueduct in March. She was steadily improving over the winter, picking up checks in 4 of her 5 starts despite never running a particularly fast speed figure. She fits well at this level but may need to improve to beat a few of these. She does, however, get a major rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz for the return. I’m using both, but I want to take a shot with Peggy Sue, who figures to be a slightly better price. This filly has obviously improved in recent starts, and her upward trajectory is noteworthy in a race where others may be going off form. She faded in the late stages and was passed by today's rival Crick last time out, but that filly was riding the rail whereas Peggy sue was 3 to 4 wide throughout on a day that featured a strong rail bias. That last effort is a lot better than it seems, and she had hinted that she might be improving in her start prior to that. If she takes another small step forward here, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4,5,7
RACE 5: PRINCE HALO (#10)
I suppose The Grand Canal will go off as the favorite in this spot as he cuts back to 7 furlongs. I have no problem with the turnback in distance since he just seemed to get a bit tired at the end of his turf debut last time. He gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz for this start, but I feel that he’s going to take an inordinate amount of money in this spot merely because he’s an obvious contender in an otherwise confusing race. I prefer some others. Magnesite figures to run better than he did last time out after he encountered some trouble at the quarter pole. That May 17 race was falling apart late, but Magnesite found himself in a terrible spot approaching the top of the stretch, stuck on the rail behind tiring runners. He had to steady and swing to the far outside after losing momentum. He finished up decently go be third and figures to do much better this time. He also gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is first time turfer Prince Halo. This is a horse who I’ve been waiting for a chance to bet on the turf since I first saw him in the entries over the winter. While he doesn’t have an overwhelming turf pedigree, he is by decent grass influence Orb out of a dam who was a 2-time winner on the turf. Furthermore, he presented himself as a horse with a turfy way of moving in his OBS sales work last year, and you could see that same action in his recent dirt starts. He didn’t show much in either of those races, but I think we’re going to see a much better performance as he switches surface. He doesn’t have to be a superstar to beat this group.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,8,9
RACE 9: NO BANG NO BOOM (#7)
This is an unusual race in that a horse who has never raced on the grass may end up going off as the favorite. There are definitely reasons to like Releasethethunder in this spot. If he transfers his dirt form to the turf, he is going to be difficult to beat, since he’s just run faster than all of his rivals. He kept good company racing in stakes in his recent races, and this switch to grass makes some sense. His dam never won but she ran very well on the turf and he’s a son of good turf influence More Than Ready. I’m using him defensively, but I’m reticent to accept a very short price on a horse trying something for the first time. There are some viable alternatives. My top pick is No Bang No Boom, who ships up from Keeneland for Wesley Ward. He looks significantly slower than the main players at first glance, but he actually ran pretty well to break his maiden going 5 furlongs at Gulfstream over the winter. He broke from the gate like a rocket and set extremely fast fractions before holding sway late. It’s not surprising that he couldn’t handle a mile next time and I don’t care much about the dirt experiment last time. He’s finally getting back into a pure turf sprint, and I think he’ll be capable of posting a faster speed figure now as a more mature 3- year-old. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and it’s reasonable to infer that he will be on the lead. At a bigger price, I would also use Kosciuszko. This horse actually has a turf pedigree, so it wasn’t totally surprising that he handled the grass in his second start. He’s raced only on dirt since then, but he’s shown some ability on occasion and may appreciate this surface switch.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with ALL
RACE 10: HE’SMYLUCKYFELLOW (#5)
Millionaire Joe may go favored in this spot after posting decent speed figures in his first couple of turf starts. He makes some amount of sense, but I’m not thrilled with horses turning back in distance on the turf and I’m just not sure that he’s actually more talented than some other runners who will be better prices. Dove Shoot may do better in his second start off the layoff and No More Miracles showed some signs of life when he switched to turf last time. I’ll use all of these horses in some capacity, but I’m sticking with the theme of picking first time turfers on this card. He’smyluckyfellow switches surfaces and has some sneaky pedigree to handle the grass. He was actually not intended for turf last time, since he was entered as an MTO. Yet this time he’s dropping back down to a realistic level and he would not be impossible here if he improved slightly on his fast track dirt form. Itsmyluckyday is not the kind of horse that many would envision when they think of turf sires, but he’s actually gotten off to a great start with his progeny on this surface, winning with 15% of his turf starters overall. While there is not a ton of turf on the dam’s side, his dam is a daughter of turf influence Pure Prize and she has produced a stakes-placed runner on the grass. I think this horse is going to get ignored in this spot, and I believe he can outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,10