by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 16 - 14 - 2 - 15
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 16 - 9 - 5 - 7
RACE 5: STINK MAN (#4)
Rally Cap is clearly the horse to beat off his set of superior speed figures earned against tougher company. However, he is now being risked for a tag again following four consecutive starts in which he was protected. He’s lost as the favorite twice in a row and his most recent thirdplace finish was especially disappointing. He found himself setting an honest pace despite the fact that he may be better from a stalking position. Nevertheless, he should not have been run down by a seemingly inferior rival like Bronx Bomber. The Pace Projector indicates that he could be leading the field early in this spot as well, and now he must stretch out an extra furlong. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others at more enticing prices. My top pick is Stink Man. This gelding ran well to win his debut for Dermot Magner and was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice. Something obviously went awry in his first start against winners, as he appeared to react badly to kickback leaving the backstretch, climbing as he abruptly took himself out of contention. He finished far behind Rally Cap that day, but I’m willing to give him a pass for that performance. Rice drops him to a more appropriate level and he should be forwardly placed this time in a field that does not feature an abundance of early speed.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
RACE 6: DANNY CALIFORNIA (#16)
This has turned into a completely different race as an off-the-turf event, now to be constested at one-mile on the main track. I would not totally discount the horse that I picked on turf, Rockin Jo, but I believe this is actually a tougher spot for him as a dirt race. I was looking forward to betting him on grass, but his trainer Dennis Lalman is better known for his work with dirt horses, and he can get runners to improve significantly off trainer switches. Furthermore, Rockin Jo has not handled wet tracks in the past, though it is worth noting that both of those efforts came at 9 furlongs, which is too far for him. He now has to contend with three formidable rivals from the MTO list. The one that is now likely to go off as the favorite is Shamrock Kid. This horse has run well over sloppy tracks and goes out for the red-hot Brad Cox barn. I'm somewhat concerned about the stretch-out to a mile, since he did seem to improve once turned back in distance over the winter. Nevertheless, he is the horse to beat. Tiz No Bluff may seem like his main rival at first glance, but I do not like the trajectory of this horse's career. Michelle Nevin felt the need to give him considerable time beteween races as he dropped down to conditioned claiming company in his last couple of starts. He handles a wet track, but I don't believe it's his preferred surface, and he's been given too many chances at very short prices. I actually want to take a shot with the longest price of the MTO runners, Danny California. This horse was curious entered in an allowance race as Main Track Only entrant a few weeks ago, which is curious given his declining form at the $16,000 level for his prior barn. Yet he's gotten a significant trainer switch to Jorge Abreu and top rider Jose Ortiz takes the mount for this return from a brief layoff. He appears to be working well in the past couple of months, and he's a horse who has been effective over wet tracks in the past. If he can get back on track in this spot, he's a serious contender for victory.
Win: 16
Exacta Key Box: 16 with 2,14,15
RACE 7: SAGUARO ROW (#6)
The two horses likely to vie for favoritism in this spot are Bluegrass Jamboree and Honor Way. The former is probably the horse to beat given her superior tactical speed. There is very little pace signed on for this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that Bluegrass Jamboree will be sitting in a good spot stalking the likely leader Summer Punch. I don’t expect this mare to run back to her 8-length score two back when she rode a strong rail bias to victory. She didn’t perform quite as well as the favorite last time, but she nevertheless put forth a respectable effort. There is rain in the forecast and she handles a wet track even though she’s never won over it. Honor Way suggested that she might have improved for Linda Rice when finishing third in the Interborough back in January, but she has not gone on since then. She showed some signs of life in the Correction two back, but was then highly disappointing as the last-place finisher at this level last time. She’s clearly good enough to beat this field at her best, but the lack of pace in this race could severely compromise her chances. I’m taking a shot against these with Saguaro Row, who ships in to New York from Kentucky. This filly has sprinted only twice in her career, but both of those were winning efforts. She returned from a one-year layoff at Keeneland last time and won in impressive fashion. The pace of that race was extremely slow for the distance and this filly resented being rated in the opening furlongs, throwing her head about while refusing to settle. Many horses would give up after fighting their rider in the opening stages, but she kicked nicely once she was worked into the clear on the turn. She should have no trouble handling a wet track as a daughter of Union Rags, and her outside post position should allow her to work her way into a comfortable early position.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,5