by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 9 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 12 - 9 - 3
Race 10: 2 - 7 - 9 - 5
RACE 1: MR. FIXIT (#1)
Obviously, Data Driven is the horse to beat in here, as he’s run faster dirt races than his competition. The problem with him is that he hasn’t run in more than 15 months, and David Jacobson doesn’t have particularly strong numbers off lengthy layoffs. That said, rain in the forecast ahead of Sunday’s card would help his cause, since he’s run two of his best races over wet tracks. I’m not enamored with the other alternatives that figure to take money. The Caretaker is showing himself to be a horse that doesn’t really want to win races, and Wrong Ben took advantage of favorable circumstances last time. The one horse that I think has a right to take a step forward in this spot is Mr. Fixit. You can make an argument that his last race was even better than the speed figure suggests, as runner-up Comeoncomeoncat and fourth-place finisher Spectacular Kid returned to run significantly faster in their subsequent starts. Something obviously happened in his lone poor race at Laurel as a 2-year-old, but his surrounding efforts are quite good. I like that they’re moving him up into a protected spot, and the John Terranova barn is having a strong year.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
RACE 2: CASA RAE (#6)
I’m not thrilled with the familiar shorter-priced options in this maiden race. Barefoot Angel and Guy American Dream have both run well enough to win at this level in their recent starts, but I don’t get the feeling that they’re necessarily heading in a positive direction. Some may look to Irish Marauder as the best alternative, but I don’t trust horses that haven’t raced in 18 months. I think this is a spot where you can get a little creative, and I’ve got an interesting idea. Casa Rae’s last race is worth watching. Though not noted in the published running line, this horse was actually contesting the pace in the first quarter mile. Unfortunately, many horses were gunning for the lead heading for the turn and Casa Rae was the one that got badly shuffled out of position. He greenly dropped back along the rail under an apprentice rider who did little to motivate him and he basically lost all chance. I think this horse has more ability than he’s shown thus far, so the addition of blinkers could really make a difference. Barefoot Angel and Guy American Dream are not that fast, so it’s possible that Casa Rae could be dangerous if he gets out in front.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,7
RACE 8: HONOR UP (#8)
I’m not sure what to do with the pair of Chad Brown runners in this race, and you’re unlikely to get much of a price on either one. Take It to Scale deserves credit for winning his debut routing, but that was a fairly weak maiden special weight field and this is a significant step up in class. Born for a Storm has run well on occasion, but he needed a race off the layoff when he returned at Saratoga last year. I prefer others. Speke has to be considered a top contender. He was game in defeat behind today’s rival Danny California two back before impressively winning a solid maiden race on Gotham day. He obviously handles the distance and figures to get a good trip. I’m using him, but the horse that I really want to bet here is Honor Up. This colt showed real ability as a 2-year-old once he was finally stretched out in distance. He gave Audible a run for his money back on Nov. 15 before easily handling an overmatched group in similarly fast time. It took him a long time to get back to the races and they took a shot in the Lexington. He appeared to be moving well on the turn before something apparently went amiss and Jose Ortiz eased him up to the wire. It’s a good sign to see him back just four weeks later and he doesn’t need to improve much on his 2-year-old form to beat this field.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7,9
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,3,9
RACE 9: MR. BRIX (#1)
Yummy Bear has consistently run some of the fastest races, but he’s had his chances at this level and seems likely to once again find or two horses that are just a bit faster than him. I’m using him in exotics, but prefer others on top. All Systems Go seemed like the most likely winner, but his scratch leaves this race open to some other contenders. Battle in Seattle has to be considered after showing some class in France, especially given Graham Motion's positive numbers with this move. However, one potential caveat with many of the shorter prices is the overall lack of pace in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. Dirt performers Septimius Severus and Blessed Halo have speed, but are not guaranteed to show that form on the turf. Therefore, I want to give a look to Mr. Brix, who figures to get sent to the front from the rail. While this gelding has raced primarily on turf recently, he’s actually run well on turf many times before. You can make the argument that his overall form has improved significantly since he last tried turf, and he’s run the best races of his career for this current barn. This stable does not have much experience with turf runners in general, but Mr. Brix figures to get sent from the rail with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. I think he’s a dangerous longshot to throw into the mix.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,9,12