PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 1A - 4 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 8 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 5 - 12
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 3 - 13
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 2 - 14
Race 8:   6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 8 - 12

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I have some reservations about both favorites in this $25k claimer that opens the card. Klickitat (#8) and Ballydooley (#4) both have plenty of back class, but I think it’s fair to question their current form. Klickitat seemed to tail off in the second half of last season, and he also doesn’t appear to be at his best going 6 furlongs. Ballydooley maintained good form for much of last year, but the fact that they’ve dropped him in for some cheaper tags this winter and then again now might suggest that he’s gone in the wrong direction. I want to explore a couple of options who are getting back on turf after a long series of dirt races. Cash Now (#9) is obviously best on turf, having run competitive speed figures last year in New Jersey before coming to New York for the winter. He actually maintained some decent form racing on dirt initially before tailing off. Now he’s been claimed by Rob Atras, and is getting back to the right surface. I would also use Mount Travers (#1A) at a bigger price. He’s only made two turf starts in his career, and they both came a long time ago. Yet he ran well on turf when third in the Bridgetown Stakes as a young 3-year-old, and then was in over his head in his only other turf appearance. He’s at the right level now and appears to be getting back into form for Amira Chichackly.

Fair Value:
#9 CASH NOW, at 4-1 or greater
#1A MOUNT TRAVERS, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 3

Vindictive (#2) figures to be a heavy favorite as he returns from the layoff for Todd Pletcher. This lightly raced 5-year-old has had trouble staying on the racetrack, but he’s shown real ability when he’s able to put races together. His two starts last year as a 4-year-old were both good efforts, but I doubt it was the original plan for him to miss the rest of 2022 after running so well in the Pimlico Special. Pletcher has solid statistics coming off layoffs, but this horse has run poorly in both prior starts at Belmont Park, and I wonder if he's going to be able to maintain his best form after all this time. The problem with this race is finding a viable alternative. I have some doubts about a few of the favorite’s main rivals. My top pick is No Burn (#4), who can be a little inconsistent at times. However, this horse is certainly capable of winning at the level when he produces his best form. He’s recently run well over wet tracks, but he’s also put forth some big efforts over fast going at Belmont Park before. I think he’s going to get a good trip under Katie Davis, who isn’t afraid to ride a horse aggressively. The recent workouts suggest that he’s continuing to do well, and the price should be fair enough.

Fair Value:
#4 NO BURN, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4

I don’t have a major problem with Addressable Market (#10), other than the expected short price. She could go favored here just because of the connections, even though her prior turf form is just mediocre. She had a trip in her debut at Monmouth when she was doing some decent running at the end, but she failed to step forward in her second start. Among the likely shorter prices, I prefer Mysterious Stare (#8), who has recent turf races against better company. She wasn’t really finishing off those two turf starts at Tampa, but she’s now getting significant class relief as she drops in for a tag for the first time. Nightsaber (#6) also makes some sense at a slightly better price. She made what looked like a winning move last time when she broke away from the field at the top of the stretch, but she hit a wall in the late stages. The slight turnback to a mile could benefit her, and Horacio De Paz has good stats second off the claim. My top pick is Tap It Up (#4). Unlike others, she’s actually stretching out in distance, and I think she will appreciate the added ground. She showed turf affinity in her first try over it last October, where she made a wide early move to challenge before fading. She got back on turf last time at this level and ran a good race despite finishing fourth. Wearing blinkers for the first time, she got bumped at the start and was off a bit slowly, but was running on well at the end. She’s a half-sister to a turf route winner and by Tapwrit, so shouldn’t mind some added ground.

Fair Value:
#4 TAP IT UP, at 7-1 or greater
#6 NIGHTSABER, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

I didn’t pick her on top, but I do think the horse to beat in this competitive allowance affair is Stolen Future (#3). She had shown some promise in her debut against open company at Gulfstream, and she ran well to break her maiden going this distance last time at Aqueduct. That’s proven to be a strong race, so I’m not too concerned about this step up in class. I just don’t expect her to be much of a price in a race where I think others will offer better value. Camp Akeela (#5) is another with good prior turf form that merits consideration. She ran pretty well in a stakes two back, and then got the wrong trip last time when turned back to a sprint in a tough spot at Keeneland. She can certainly rebound here. I would even give a look to the AE that gets in, Masterof the Tunes (#13). The distance might be a bit short for her, but she's good enough to get involved if some pace develops. Yet I’m most interested in a couple of first time turfers. I’mhavingamoment (#4) seems like a candidate to handle grass, being out of a dam who won on turf and a half-sister to 3 turf winners. It might appear that her form is going in the wrong direction based on an even-money loss last time, but she was glued to a dead rail that day and didn’t run nearly as bad as it might seem. My top pick at an even bigger price is Queens Masterpiece (#7). The turf pedigree here is less obvious, though she is by good turf sprint influence Munnings. This filly just looks like a turf horse to me. She’s got a big, floating stride that looks like it should transfer well to the grass. She also has shown some ability in her dirt races, as she made an early move to win her debut and then met some very tough fields in her next two starts. I think she can move up on this surface at what figures to be a generous price. There also appears to be plenty of pace in here to set up her late run.

Fair Value:
#7 QUEENS MASTERPIECE, at 10-1 or greater
#4 I'MHAVINGAMOMENT, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7

Battle Scars (#2) is the horse to beat as he drops back down into New York-bred company. He ran very well in his two appearances on this circuit last year. He closed strongly for fourth at Saratoga in August despite getting a wide trip against a rail bias. He then was entered one condition higher at Aqueduct in the fall, and held his own against a tougher group. Since then he’s competed in open company races in Florida, running some solid speed figures. He’s arguably hung a bit in the late stages of a couple of those efforts, and he will have to work out a trip from well off the pace here given his deep closing style. There are some intriguing 3-year-olds in this field who might have upside. Gem Mint Ten (#4) obviously took a step forward with the switch to turf last time, finishing up that race more powerfully than he had in his prior dirt starts. That was just 6 furlongs, but he only hit his best stride at the end, and feels like one that will appreciate added ground. He could be a similar price to the runner drawn inside of him, and I think he’s a much more likely winner. My top pick is General Banker (#5). He’s developed a reputation as a dirt horse recently for the black type he earned in a few Derby preps earlier this year. However, I always felt this horse was better on turf during his 2-year-old season, and this is the first time he’s getting to try grass after clearly improving over the last 6 months. His last turf race in October was a very good effort, as he chased outside, and made an early bid for the lead while finishing well clear of the third-place horse. I think this one-turn mile is absolutely perfect for him, and he’s also getting Lasix for the first time.

Fair Value:
#5 GENERAL BANKER, at 4-1 or greater