by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 12 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 13 - 3 - 8
RACE 2: WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO (#5)
Value Engineering was heavily supported in his Gulfstream debut, but he was unfortunate to run into subsequent stakes winner Clint Maroon that day. This colt actually took a good run at the winner in the stretch, drawing 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field while making up ground late. He has plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree so he may ultimately be best going farther than this, but he is nevertheless the horse to beat. This is a very competitive spot and I think there are some other interesting horses to consider. The Last Zip stretched out off a pair of sprint races at Keeneland last time and handled the added distance admirably. He was hustled up to chase a fast pace by Rosario, took the lead off the far turn, and responded tenaciously to multiple challenges, losing a heartbreaker. He meets a tougher field today, but this gelding may play out as the controlling speed, and he is a fighter. I believe this race could be dominated towards the front end, so I’m taking a shot with Wild Medagliad’oro. This colt took to turf willingly last time, as his pedigree suggested he might. That was a sprint race, but Mark Casse actually has good numbers in this situation. Over 5 years, he is 18 for 90 (20%, $2.65 ROI) with maidens going from turf sprints to turf routes. The winner of that race, Front Run the Fed, impressively won an allowance race on Friday. This colt had trouble stretching out on dirt late in his 2-year-old season, but he’s bred to go longer so he should be more inclined to handle route distances on turf. I’m hoping he can stalk The Last Zip and take over from that foe late.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 6: DARK STORM (#5)
Mental Model is the horse to beat as he moves back up in class. This runner took a ton of money when he made his debut in January and his performance was abysmal. He almost had to possess more ability than was on display that day, and he unsurprisingly ran a much more professional race when he returned three months later. He was not facing the strongest field in that April 12 maiden claimer, but he ran a very competitive speed figure and will be formidable if he merely repeats that performance. I’m trying to beat him with Dark Storm, who figures to be a close second choice. George Weaver has solid numbers with runners dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, and this inexpensive 2-year-old purchase was just in over his head last time. He took no money, going off at 25-1, but he actually ran a decent race to split the field. He was a bit sluggish in the early going, but he was moving up on the turn when some runners ahead of him veered out into his path. Eric Cancel was forced to alter course down to the rail and Dark Storm finished up with good interest. He gives every indication that an additional furlong should not be a problem for him, and he figures to improve with that experience under his belt. The rider switch to top jockey Irad Ortiz is an added bonus.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with ALL
RACE 7: ABIDING STAR (#6)
Harv Won’t Tap drops to face straight claimers after a series of starts at the optional-claiming level. He defeated the classy Dover Cliffs last time despite enduring an eventful trip and getting spun wide off the far turn. Mike Stidham has sent some live runners to New York, and this one gets a positive rider switch to Rosario. The only drawback is that he’s a stone-cold closer who will need some pace up front to have his best shot. Another major contender who may be compromised by the pace is Golden Spear. This gelding was visually impressive in victory against cheaper foes at Gulfstream last time. He has been in the barns of some super trainers and now makes his first start for Steve Klesaris, who has decent numbers first off the claim on turf. He has rallied from well off the pace in recent starts, but he displayed tactical speed in his Woodbine races last year and he needs to revert to those tactics to have a shot in this paceless affair. I’m trying to beat these two with Abiding Star. This 6-year-old is the lone speed in an utterly paceless affair. He was ambitiously spotted in the Elusive Quality and did not get an ideal trip that day after failing to secure the lead. He was a winner the last time he faced straight claimers in January, and was then compromised setting an extremely fast pace in the El Prado. The Ned Allard trainee has run some of his best races over the Belmont Park turf and he picks up good speed rider Jose Ortiz for this. A sunny forecast for this weekend should please this firm-turf lover.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,7 with 1,2,3,7,9
RACE 8: SINWAAN (#7)
Bingwa is a deserving favorite as she makes her second start off the layoff for Wesley Ward. She put forth a strong effort in her return at Keeneland last time, battling every step of the way with the classy and undefeated Royal Charlotte and just coming up short. The 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure was slightly better than her top number as a 2-year-old, so she certainly has room to continue moving forward here. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in front of this field in the early going in a situation favoring the front-runner. I think she’s very dangerous, but I’m also somewhat concerned that she may be an underlay in this spot given her obvious positive attributes. While none of her rivals have earned such flashy speed figures, a few of them are quite lightly raced and have the potential to step forward. One of those is Cache, who returns from a near 12-month layoff for Mark Hennig. She made quite a splash in her impressive debut at Gulfstream and then sustained a troubled trip in the Davona Dale. Things went awry after that, but she has a right to get back on track now that she’s been given ample time to mature. I’m using her, but my top pick is recent maiden winner Sinwaan. This filly ran much better than it appears in her debut at Gulfstream. She was away awkwardly and raced towards the back of the pack in the early going. She then encountered traffic trouble while advancing on the turn, yet still finished with good interest after altering course into the lane. She then proceeded to run a much more professional race second time out, flashing improved early speed before drawing off late. Her speed figures are a little light in comparison to those of Bingwa, but I believe she has the potential to take another step forward here. She’s drawn well outside of the other speeds and Luis Saez figures to be aggressive once again.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 9: DISQUIET (#1)
Tempers Way draws into this finale and becomes the horse to beat and a deserving favorite. She has faced tougher open company fields down at Tampa and has earned superior speed figures to this field. Her main rival Handle With Care beat a few of today’s rivals when finishing second at this level last time in her first start back off a layoff. She rated on that occasion, but she possesses plenty of tactical speed and may find herself towards the front end this time in a race that does not feature much early speed. I have no major knocks against her, but I also won’t be surprised if a new face steps up and beats her. I’m hoping that’s the case, since I want to take a shot with first time turfer Disquiet. This filly doesn’t possess an overwhelming turf pedigree, but her dam did win on the turf and she has produced 3 turf-winning foals. Most of those did not necessarily move up on this surface, but I get the sense that Disquiet is a more turf-inclined individual. Her stride is loping and fluid, which should lend itself to grass. Furthermore, she is clearly bred to handle longer distances than the 6 1/2 furlongs she encountered in her debut. She actually ran much better than it appears in that only start, since she was wide against a strong rail bias every step of the way. We have seen other horses return to improve following wide trips on that Feb. 3 card, and Disquiet figures to do so as well.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,8,12,13