by David Aragona
Today's picks have been updated for Races 1, 3, 4, and 6 coming off the turf. Race 7 remains on the turf.
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Race 1: 6 - 11 - 8 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 13 - 12 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 7 - 2
RACE 2: ABEJA NEGRA (#3)
In what has to be one of the worst races ever run at Belmont Park, Way Over Budget and You Promise look like the two favorites based on their recent speed figures. They’re both getting subtle class relief and may have just found the right field. However, neither excites me and I do see one intriguing alternative. Abeja Negra’s lone dirt start is worth watching. She actually was up fairly close in the first furlong before she reacted very badly to kickback and abruptly dropped back. Thereafter, she made a wide run past a few rivals on the far turn and finished up evenly. Overall, she did a bit more running that the running line indicates. She’s not a turf horse, and she’s getting back to the right surface. It’s not as if she needs to improve that much to beat the two aforementioned fillies.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6
RACE 7: SAMUNA (#5)
Homeland Security is going to be a very short price merely because she’s trained by Chad Brown. She’s run reasonably well in her races, but none of her efforts have thrilled me. She got a perfect trip when she won that allowance last fall in a race where Church Social made a wild premature move and was probably best. Homeland Security has a right to be a better 4-year-old, but I’m not willing to accept a very short price based on conjecture. I’m trying to beat her with Samuna. This filly probably needed her return off a 13-month layoff at Keeneland. She ran a like a horse that was too keen off the break, as she was extremely difficult for Florent Geroux to handle. That overeagerness probably muted her late kick. The majority of her prior efforts had come as a two-year-old in France, and she did show some real ability in those races. Particularly in that Oct. 11 effort, she finished just behind Brametot, who would go on to win the two Group 1 French classics as a three-year-old.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,4
RACE 8: SWIFT ONE (#3)
The horse to beat in this spot is Appealing Henry, who gets some necessary class relief after failing to measure up against tougher starter allowance foes last time. He had run reasonably well in two prior starts against New York-breds, and his early speed makes him a wire-to-wire threat here. I’m certainly using him, but I think there are some other options to consider at better prices. Conquest Expresso deserves another chance after blowing the break last time. The early pace of that race was extremely slow, which basically cost him any chance of getting back into contention. He had previously run speed figures that make him a player here. I’m definitely using him, but my top pick is Swift One. This horse was given some time on the shelf after going off form for his current connections last summer. He returned on Apr. 27 at Belmont with an effort that is better than it seems at first glance. He was away somewhat awkwardly, placing him near the back of the pack. However, rather than sitting back to make one run, his rider sent him to make a premature wide move around the far turn. He actually got up into third at the top of the stretch before flattening out late. He figures to benefit from that return effort, and I think he can make some noise at price if he steps forward in his second start off the layoff.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 2,4,5,7,8