PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   10 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   10 - 9 - 11 - 1A
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 11 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 8:   10 - 7 - 13 - 12
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 2 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

I don’t trust Oglethorpe (#1A), who could vie for favoritism in this spot. His dirt speed figures make him look competitive, but I have serious doubts about the quality of his last race and don’t want to take him at a short price. Luni Sima (#9) makes plenty of sense in his recent form, but he’s not the most compelling win candidate. He figures to take money off his recent speed figures, and I’m concerned that this 1 1/16 miles distance is pushing him past his limit. Film Star (#11) seems like a better fit for this race as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He was beaten to the lead after an awkward start last time, and now should play out as the controlling speed with little other pace signed on. I think that makes him the horse to beat. My top pick is Complete Agenda (#10). I thought this horse put in a game effort trying to rally into a slow pace last time. The comment line says he bled, but this horse never quit despite seeming to struggle with the sandy kickback. I actually prefer him getting back into a one-turn race, since I think he’s run better than it might appear around one turn in the past, getting some trips. He also figures to be the best price of the main contenders.

Fair Value:
#10 COMPLETE AGENDA, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t want to accept a likely short price on Business Model (#3) here. He has faced significantly better competition in most of his recent starts, but he also hasn’t done much running in any of those races. Brendan Walsh actually has solid statistics with horses making their first starts for a tag, but this gelding’s best days may be behind him. He also lacks any early speed and I’m hesitant to take short prices on deep closers. There really isn’t much speed signed on in this race, but I’m not thrilled with either of the horses who figure to go forward form the inside, Two Thirty Five (#1) and Black Belt (#2). Back Ring Luck (#6) should stalk outside of those two, and he’s much more appealing. David Jacobson has had some success on this circuit recently, and I just think this gelding is spotted appropriately for his return to New York. He didn’t get the smoothest trip last time at Oaklawn, and I view him as the horse to beat. My top pick at what should be a bigger price is Lafitte’s Fleet (#5). This horse has been popular at the claim box recently, and I liked that he was reclaimed by Rudy Rodriguez, for whom he previously ran well earlier this year. It's also a good sign that Rudy moves him up in class to the $50k level off the claim despite the fact that he ran poorly last time. Clearly there’s an expectation that this horse can rebound, and I don’t mind him stretching back out to the mile. He’s run well going this distance before and the expected moderate pace should keep him more engaged early.

Fair Value:
#5 LAFITTE'S FLEET, at 6-1 or greater
#6 BACK RING LUCK, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

This New York-bred allowance affair is one of the most wide open races on the entire card. It’s hard to know exactly where the public will land, though Miss Stones (#3) does figure to attract some support off her dominant maiden score last month. She had been rumored to be a good one prior to that race, and delivered on the hype, drawing off to an impressive victory. However, the waters get much deeper as she steps up against winners, and she finds herself in a race that features plenty of other speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with the aforementioned filly getting early pressure from Fancy Joke (#2) and Try It Again (#9), as well as potentially others who also want to be forwardly placed. My top pick is Fancy Feline (#10). Notably, she’s the horse with the LP flag (highest Late Pace Rating) on the Pace Projector, which is significant in a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. I thought she had a legitimate excuse two back when she got steadied and shuffled back around the turn after trying to show improved speed. Then last time she was the only horse making up ground in a race otherwise dominated up front. I expect her to get a more favorable setup here as she picks up Joel Rosario.

Fair Value:
#10 FANCY FELINE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

Danseur d’Oro (#2) makes sense as the likely favorite. She’s returned this year with a series of improving efforts, and I think we saw the best she has to offer last time when rallying from just off the pace to miss by a nose. She may merely need to hold her current form to get the job done against this field, though I think others have a bit more upside. Second time starter She’s a Nine (#1) got a strange trip on debut. She was mildly cut off at the start when the eventual winner crossed over. She then tried to rush up to chase the pace, but was tentatively ridden. I’m not sure if she was trying to perhaps lug in at the quarter pole, but her rider basically gave up on her and just eased her home. The same jockey is back aboard today, so perhaps there was a plan there. One would imagine she’ll show more speed this time, having drawn the rail. My top pick at what figures to be a bigger price is Krystalheir (#7). Her debut was actually a decent effort. It wasn’t a fast race overall, but she ran well within the context of that affair, making up quite a bit of ground through the lane. She did step forward from a speed figure standpoint last time, while also showing vastly improved early speed. She’s now been off for a couple of months and returns with blinkers added. I do wonder if she's the type who will ultimately want more ground than this, but she still has some upside for low-profile connections and will be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#7 KRYSTALHEIR, at 9-1 or greater
#1 SHE'S A NINE, at 6-1 or greater