by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 9:   9 - 7 - 8 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: NOT ABOUT THE NAIL (#3)
Rumor Driven is likely to go off as the slight favorite in this short field due in large part to her successful connections. This filly ran fairly well in her debut, hanging on to finish third after setting the pace. The two fillies who finished ahead of her that day, Behind the Couch and Cash Offer, are both entered for the Bouwerie Stakes on Monday’s card, so it was a strong maiden event. Rumor Driven was subsequently entered for turf last time, and Chad Brown left her in to go one mile on dirt when the race was rained off. It bothers me that she isn’t really meant for this surface, and I was not thrilled with her effort going today’s distance last time. She had to be ridden to get clear at the top of the stretch and didn’t finish up like a filly who was relishing the conditions. I’m trying to beat her with the logical second choice, Not About the Nail. This filly reeled off three consecutive victories during February and March at Aqueduct. She clearly relishes this distance, which is why I’m willing to forgive her most recent effort going six furlongs. Trainer Ed Barker stepped her up in class that day to face tougher New York-bred allowance company, and she never had a chance to get involved. The early pace was quite slow for the distance, and no one was able to make up any significant ground. Low-profile rider Sammy Camacho Jr. has been piloting her well, and I think she’s going to be an overlay for the wrong reasons.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,5
 

RACE 4: TWO GRACES (#8)
Amarone is arguably the horse to beat as she moves back down into New York-bred company. She slowly but surely has been coming around after a dull start to her career. She outran her odds in that Monmouth race last time, but the event was dominated by longshots, and she worked out a perfect trip. Nevertheless, she’s going to be a handful if she repeats that performance. I would also use Petalite, who was ambitiously spotted in her turf debut against open company and now drops back into the New York-bred ranks. She will have more to offer on turf now that she's back at the right class level. I could also see the lone first-time starter in the mix attracting some support, as Pecatonica has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. She is a half-sister to three turf winners, including stakes-placed Dreaming of Cara. However, Chistophe Clement has not had much success with first-time starters in turf routes at NYRA over the past five years (4 for 66, 6 percent, $0.68 ROI). I’m taking a shot against these runners with Two Graces. This filly dropped down to the maiden-claiming ranks for her turf debut two back, and she ran on well after waiting in traffic in upper stretch. The speed figures for that race were slow, but we have seen some also-rans return to do well out of that spot. She then took another step forward when switched back to dirt last time, suggesting that we haven't yet seen her best. While she does not possess overwhelming turf pedigree, it seems that added distance has been the key to her improvement. She should relish this nine-furlong trip and meets a relatively weak field for the level. It’s encouraging that leading rider Jose Lezcano keeps the mount, and she figures to be a square price.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,5,7
 

RACE 6: UNCLE SIGH (#8)
Minsky Moment is going to attract plenty of support following a blowout victory off the layoff last time. He drew off by more than 14 lengths in the slop while earning a solid 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet it’s worth noting that both of his top dirt speed figures were recorded over wet tracks, and there's minimal precipitation in the forecast ahead of Sunday. This 5-year-old has always had talent but struggled to win races earlier in his career. He may finally be putting it all together, but you have to swallow a pretty short price on a horse with five runner-up finishes in eight starts. The pace of this race must be considered because the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the leader, who figures to be Three to Thirteen. The Kelly Breen trainee faded at this level April 5 but nevertheless earned one of his better speed figures. He now gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz, who figures to be aggressive from this rail post position. I respect anything this barn sends out, but this gelding may be a cut below the top contenders in terms of raw ability. I’m trying to beat Minsky Moment with Uncle Sigh. This once-classy 8-year-old is still capable of producing a top effort from time to time. He easily handled an overmatched group of claimers last time and has been claimed back by Chris Englehart out of that performance. Englehart notably trained this horse during a run of good efforts in 2018, and he would be a serious threat if able to recapture that form. According to the Pace Projector, he possesses the tactical speed to sit relatively close to Three to Thirteen early, and I’m hoping he can get the jump on a hanging Minsky Moment.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4,6
Trifecta: 8 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,4,6
 

RACE 7: ZANDORA (#8)
I found this race to be one of the most confusing handicapping puzzles on the card. It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this from a wagering perspective, and I had trouble identifying the main contenders in my handicapping. Linda Rice has entered a pair of fillies, and the one that figures to attract more support is Mamma Dee off a visually impressive maiden win last time. While she won with authority that day, she got a great pace setup ahead of her and closed in a race where all of the others were fading late. I’m not sure that she’s quite as talented as some others based solely on that performance. The Nine O is somewhat interesting as she makes her first start for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. She showed some talent in California and was a very game winner of last start against maiden claiming foes. McLaughlin has solid statistics off trainer switches on the turf. I would also use Peaceful Feeling, who was too aggressive with blinkers on last time in a stakes at Gulfstream. She had run well against a decent field of 3-year-olds in her prior start and would be a contender here if she merely repeats that performance. All of these merit consideration, but I want to look for some value in such a perplexing race, so I’m taking a shot with Zandora. This filly was meant for turf in both starts, but got rained off last time. Her debut on this surface was disappointing, but she acted up badly prior to the start that day and never seemed to have her head in the game. She was much more professional in that off-the-turf race last time, easily drawing clear of some overmatched rivals. Brad Cox protects her for her first start against winners, and he does very well in this situation. Over the past 5 years, Cox is 7 for 17 (41 percent, $3.08 ROI) with last-out maiden winners switching from dirt to turf. Furthermore, she’s bred to handle this surface, since she is a half-sister to a turf winner by 17% turf sire Jimmy Creed.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,5,9
 

RACE 9: SEVEN IS HEAVEN (#9)
Cyber Currency may go off as the favorite in his career debut. This New York-bred sold for a substantial sum at the OBS March sale in 2018 after working a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds. It’s taken him a while to get to the races, but he appears to be working well in recent weeks. His last drill on May 17 was a stiff move in company with the talented colt Ahead of Plan and he held his own against that rival all the way through the wire. There’s quality in the second generation of his pedigree and I get the sense that this one may have some ability. He’s the horse to beat, but it’s always difficult to swallow short prices on first time starters. Therefore, I’m taking a shot against him with Seven Is Heaven. I’ve been waiting for this son of Posse to run back ever since his eventful career debut back in January. He was actually up fairly close in the early stages of that race, but got shuffled back in traffic approaching the turn and was steadied again coming to the quarter pole. From there, he had trouble finding a clear path in the lane and Dylan Davis was never able to fully ride him out to the wire. I had liked this colt’s April OBS sales drill in 10 1/5 seconds, and I expect that we will see a much stronger effort out of him in his second start. Linda Rice has won with a remarkable 11 of 25 (44 percent, $4.14 ROI) second time starting maidens adding blinkers on the dirt over the past 5 years.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,7,8,10
Trifecta: 7,9 with 7,9 with 4,5,6,8,10