by David Aragona
Today's picks and analysis have been updated for races 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, and 9 coming off the turf.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 9 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 1 - 13 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 8 - 3 - 10
Race 9: 13 - 10 - 5 - 7
RACE 6: BEAUTIFUL BUZZ (#1)
This race is actually just as intriguing on dirt as it was on turf. Two recent debut winners lead the line-up, as Still There ships in from Kentucky, and Satsify comes off an impressive maiden score against fellow New York-breds. Both faced solid fields in those races and I think they are the ones to beat. Pink Twist is also likely to attract some support. However, she has lost two straight races at very short prices. I realize that she still earned competitive speed figures for those efforts, but I wonder if she's heading in the right direction. She's switched into Jeremiah Englehart's barn for this race. I’m using all of these runners, but I think Beautiful Buzz is a potential upsetter. This filly ran very well in her debut and followed that up with a strong effort against winners on Jan. 19. My Roxy Girl defeated her in the Franklin Square, but Beautiful Buzz had to overcome a wide trip on a day when horses racing on the rail seemed to have an advantage. She most recently ran on March 23 and something obviously went wrong that day. Dylan Davis appeared to ride her tentatively on the turn as she suddenly dropped out of contention before re-rallying late. It's taken her a little while to get back to the races, but I'm encouraged that there's no alarming drop in class. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she possesses the early speed to get in front of this field early, which is usually important over wet tracks.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,10,13
RACE 7: STAN THE MAN (#6) / SUMNER (#9)
I'm not trying to beat Stan the Man, who is my top pick in this race. He's simply run faster than his rivals and he clearly is capable of performing over a wet track. However, I want to use the favorite with Sumner in the exacta. This Todd Pletcher trainee figures to go off at a decent price in this race, and I think he has a big chance to outrun his odds. He ran a competitive speed figure two back at Gulfstream, and was stepped up to this starter allowance level in his New York debut. Things went awry out of the gate as he was squeezed back to last after getting bumped from both sides. Rather than ride him as a closer, Paco Lopez elected to aggressively send him up the rail to chase the leaders. The early pace of that race was honest, and Sumner expended far too much energy in the first quarter mile. Now he's returning off a strong series of workouts, and the Pletcher barn keeps him at the same level.
Exacta Box: 6,9
Trifecta: 6 with 9 with ALL
RACE 8: HEMBREE (#6)
There are actually a number of horses in this race with dirt form. Obviously, Main Track Only entrant Broken Engagement has run a few races that would beat a field like this. However, I'm slightly against him today. His last two efforts were poor, and now he's been claimed away from Rudy Rodriguez. Leah Gyarmati does a good job, but it's unlikely that she will be able to move this horse forward. I believe Hembree is the right one in here. He's proven that he handles a wet track, and he possesses the early speed to put him in a good stalking position just off the distance-challenged Attribute. In my opinion, he's the most likely winner of this race, and it's not clear the he will be the favorite. I'll primarily use him with Commandeering, who has run some decent dirt races, albeit against maidens, and Wingman, who gets some needed class relief after facing much better fields in recent starts.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 2,3,8,10
Trifecta: 6 with 3,8 with 2,3,8,10