PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 5 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: GAGLIANO (#6)

There really isn’t anyone to fear in this $16k conditioned claimer. I suppose #2 Rhubarb Martini is the horse to beat off her recent third-place finish at Keeneland, as she does appear to be an improving 3-year-old. Mertkan Kantarmaci has good stats off the claim and has done well with some of these out of town acquisitions. I’m not necessarily against her, but I didn’t want to settle for anyone at too short a price in this wide open field. I have to take a shot with #6 Gagliano, who figures to be the second or third choice in the wagering. This 5-year-old mare has her faults, as she been stuck at this level for quite some time and is just 1 for 32 in her career. That said, she was showing some subtle improvement towards the end of the Aqueduct meet, reeling off three consecutive third-place finishes. The most recent of those is noteworthy, since she was rally outside into a slow pace on a day that featured a strong rail bias. She doesn’t need to improve much on that performance to beat this field and she figures to be a square price for low-profile connections and underrated rider Jackie Davis.

WIN: #6 Gagliano, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4: VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD (#1)

This didn’t come up as the toughest N2X allowance, so you have to consider last-out winner #2 Anejo even though he’s moving up in class. He earned a speed figure that puts him right back in the mix against this tougher field, and he seems like a horse who’s still improving as a lightly raced 4-year-old. I liked the grit and determination that he showed in victory last time, fending off Best Idea even after sustaining some bumps from that rival in upper stretch. He’s the horse to beat, but there are some others to consider at bigger prices. #6 Six Percent could take some money off his solid speed figure upon return against claimers last time. However, he never looked like a serious threat to win that race and his lack of early speed could be a detriment in here given the likely race flow. I’m more interested in #1 Vintage Hollywood, who should be a slightly better price. This horse didn’t get the savviest ride last time, as he was rushed up to contest the pace early before taking over from the leaders through some deceptively fast early fractions. The two horses who were dueling with him in that opening quarter were the last pair across the wire, beaten by 37 and 39 lengths. One of those runners, Invest, returned to rebound with a much faster speed figure in his next start. Considering that race flow, Vintage Hollywood did well to nearly hold on for second behind the heavy favorite No Salt. He showed improvement off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, and I think he’s dangerous here if he can build on that last effort.

WIN: #1 Vintage Hollywood, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6: VOODOO ZIP (#6)

I’m still trying to figure out how #1 Maxwell Esquire went off at 3-1 last time in a spot where he looked very logical. He’s kept some strong company over the past year, and was just getting the class relief that he needed dropping into that optional claimer to race for a tag first off the layoff. He also got a surprisingly strong pace to close into, as heavy favorite Artemus Citylimits ran off on the front end. He now makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who is just 3 for 22 (14%, $0.73 ROI) first off the claim in turf sprints over the past 5 years. He’s dangerous again, but he is meeting a couple of talented rivals. #2 Matta was in strong form last year and has run well on this circuit before, having upset a Saratoga allowance field at 14-1 last year. However, he’s returning from a layoff and may be better off going slightly shorter than this. My top pick is #6 Voodoo Zip. Although he concentrated on route races for the majority of his career, I thought put forth some of his best efforts turning back to sprint last year. He ran very well to get the job done on July 11 last year when closing over a turf course that was favoring speed. He then showed the ability wo in at today’s distance in October when slicing through the pack to get the job done. He’s only raced once since then, when returning from a layoff at Gulfstream last month. However, he didn’t get the right trip that day, as he was in traffic right from the start and was just never in a position to do any serious running. He’s better than that and should benefit from having that race under his belt.

WIN: #6 Voodoo Zip, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 7: SUPREME AURA (#5)

#4 Chris and Dave is the horse to beat as he attempts to make it two in a row since getting claimed by Rob Atras. However, he’s stepping up to face a tougher field than the one he beat last time. He had to drop down to some cheaper races to recapture his form and I wonder if he’ll be able to maintain that level of performance as he moves back up in class. There’s also other speed for him to deal with in this spot, as both #1 Wentz and #2 Musical America figure to get aggressive rides from the inside and #6 No Burn isn’t exactly slow. I wanted to consider some alternatives that could rally from just off the pace. One of those is #3 Lost in Rome, who goes out for Gustavo Rodriguez. This barn is 6 for 20 (30%, $3.48 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years, and Rodriguez is getting this horse from a barn that just hasn’t had much recent success. Lost in Rome was running some nice races earlier this winter before going off form, but perhaps the barn change can wake him up. My top pick is #5 Supreme Aura. This horse has plenty of back races that would make him a serious rival for Chris and Dave, and he seemed to show some improvement when initially claimed by Wayne Potts over the winter. His last couple of starts since being transferred to Bonnie Lucas haven’t gone as well, but I think he’s had subtle excuses each time. That handicap two back featured a very slow pace and closers had little chance to get involved. And last time he was too aggressively ridden, contesting an honest pace that completely fell apart. I think he can work out a more comfortable trip this time and I like the rider switch to Jose Gomez.

WIN: #5 Supreme Aura, at 4-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #3 Lost in Rome, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8: HIGH FRONT (#2)

#4 Big Invasion figures to go off as a heavy favorite in this Paradise Creek as he seeks to extend his winning streak to four in a row. However, he has to prove that he can handle a bit more distance, he’s never gone a step beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. He has been visually impressive in those shorter races and has run some impressive speed figures, as high as a 118 on the TimeformUS scale. A repeat of that form will make him pretty tough to handle here, but it’s no guarantee that he’ll be as effective over this elongated distance. He’s also facing a couple of intriguing runners from Europe. #7 Asymmetric is the one who interests me a bit, as he is switching into the barn of Wesley Ward and appears to have been training well in this country. He showed a big turn of foot to win the Group 2 Richmond Stakes last year before he was just unable to handle the step up in class to the Group 1 level at the end of the season. He’s also stretching out to 7 furlongs, but he has the foundation to handle this step up in trip. I prefer him to #6 Maritime Wings, who did show ability in Ireland last year. However, his connections have said that he got a late start this year and is being transferred to race in the U.S. under Todd Pletcher, which might not be a great sign. All three of these runners make sense, but I want to look elsewhere for my top pick. #2 High Front began his career at Gulfstream looking about as impressive as Big Invasion. This son of Summer Front got to the lead and absolutely crushed a maiden field back in January. He had an excuse in his second start when he was off awkwardly and made a middle move. And then last time I thought he arguably ran the best race, as he hopped at the start and was racing 4-wide around the turn trying to make up ground. He got there in upper stretch before hanging late. However, that was a tough field of older horses and I like that he held his own against a seasoned older rival like Yes and Yes. That form should translate well here and he can step forward if he’s finally able to break sharply.

WIN: #2 High Front, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 7