PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   12 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 2 - 9
Race 7:   3 - 9 - 10 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   9 - 6 - 4 - 13

PLAYS

RACE 4: BELLAMY DOLCE (#8)
The scratch of Super Silver makes this race somewhat less interesting, as he was a favorite that I wanted to play against. Some may turn to My Sacred Place as the primary alternative, but this horse also seems unreliable. He ran his best dirt races for Jason Servis, and his lone start last year for the Brad Cox barn, albeit on turf, was fairly poor. Perhaps he wakes up for the Brittany Russell barn, but I prefer others. I’m most interested in some 3-year-olds with upside. My top pick is the other Bruce Levine trainee Bellamy Dolce. This colt notably attracts the services of Kendrick Carmouche, who hops off Super Silver to ride this less accomplished rival instead. He didn’t run a particularly fast race when he broke his maiden two back, but he improved against winners last time, finishing third at this distance. Horses have come back out of that race to run decently, and I think this son of Bellamy Road has further upside.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5

RACE 5: PARADE FIELD (#12)
This is actually a pretty interesting race on the dirt, since there are a few horses entered for turf who possess superior dirt form. Among those that could take money is First Line, who was entered for turf but would probably be happy if this race comes off. He’s generally excelled against cheaper company in recent starts, and his improvement over his last couple of starts has mirrored the trend in the Orlando Noda barn’s performance. That said, he’s claimed by a sharp trainer in Mike Maker and handles a wet track. The problem is that he’s part of a coupled entry with a Main Track Only entrant and could get overbet. Indian Counselor also makes sense based on his recent dirt form. He had been running so well on that surface that you almost wonder if Mertkan Kantarmaci entered him here anticipating that the race would come off the grass. He’ll be on my tickets, but I went to another dirt runner for my top pick. Parade Field has yet to win on the NYRA circuit despite running well in all of his starts here, but I think he could finally break through on this occasion. He was no match for a freakish performance from Dust Devil in the slop two back, and last time he was always out of position, caught in behind horses in upper stretch before rallying late. He was also facing a tougher field that day despite that being a claiming race and this a starter allowance. As long as the trip works out this time, I think he’ll be tough to hold off.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,5,8

RACE 6: MO HEAT (#3)
Core Curriculum seems like the kind of horse that will wind up favored by default in this spot. He hasn’t run particularly well in either start, but he is dropping in class for a dangerous barn and attracts the services of Irad Ortiz. That wasn’t the toughest maiden special weight field that he encountered in his debut and he never lifted a hoof on the turf last time. Perhaps he’s finally dropping to the right level, but I don’t need him at a short price. I prefer another lightly-raced colt dropping in class. Mo Heat made one start at Saratoga last summer, and was uncompetitive in a fast maiden special weight heat. The result was poor, but he showed decent tactical speed and only really lost interest after getting spun out wide coming around the far turn. This son of Outwork out of the great sprinter Xtra Heat is actually better bred for dirt than turf, so he could be getting on the right surface this time. Furthermore, George Weaver has excellent statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years, Weaver is 8 for 24 (33%, $2.75 ROI) with second-time starting maidens going from turf to dirt, and within that sample he is 4 for 8 (50%, $3.01 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns. At a big price, I would also throw in Tapit's Flashback, who ran some reasonable speed figures on dirt over the winter and may improve returning from a layoff.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,9,10

RACE 9: DECREED (#9)
There are many ways to go in this highly competitive maiden claiming event. Cazilda Fortytales may attract support again after going off at a ridiculous 4-5 in her turf debut last time. She’s clearly not a grass horse, but she ran reasonably well over a sloppy track in her prior start, so she’s a player here. Among the favorites, I actually prefer Esotica, who has faced better company in all of her prior dirt starts. Like Cazilda Fortytales, she didn’t handle the turf last time, but her only prior start against maiden claiming company on dirt was arguably her best. She’s on my tickets, but there are others to consider. Ob La Di has to be considered a threat to wire the field after nearly doing just that at this level last time. That was going 6 1/2 furlongs and she just got a little too tired in the late stages after setting a fast pace. Notably, that race was won in last-to-first fashion, so she was against the race flow. My top pick is Decreed, who is yet another runner switching surfaces in this spot. She made her debut on grass last time and ran evenly, passing some rivals late to get up for fourth after breaking slowly. She’s a daughter of Jimmy Creed, whose progeny generally do better on dirt than turf, and it’s not as if she has much grass pedigree on the dam’s side. It feels like she just needed that debut and I think she could improve here while dropping in class.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,5,6,13