by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 13 - 14 - 7 - 11
Race 5: 3 - 12 - 2 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 2 - 3 - 6
RACE 3: STARLITE MISSION (#2)
Trouble for Skylar is likely to go off at a short price in this claiming event on the heels of two improved efforts since switching into the Danny Gargan barn. She exploded with an 11-length victory March 9, drastically bettering her prior form for Steve Asmussen and Armando de la Cerda. She earned a similar speed figure against tougher starter-allowance foes last time out, but I felt that she was supposed to win that race. She stalked a moderate pace and simply could not fend off Jump for Joy in the late stages. Over the past five years, Gargan is 4 for 23 (17 percent, $0.73 ROI) with horses moving from allowance to claiming dirt sprints. Rudy Rodriguez has entered a pair of challengers. Bowl of Kisses will attract more support, but I prefer Promise Me Roses. This filly was eliminated when she hopped at the start last time, placing her well behind the field in the early going. She had previously improved for Rob Atras and would have a chance here if she could get back to that form. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Starlite Mission. I’m somewhat wary of the fact that she has racked up 14 second- and third-place finishes in 20 career starts, but I’m encouraged by her most recent effort. She had gone the wrong way for Gary Contessa this winter, but I thought she took a step in the right direction in her first start off the claim for Dave Cannizzo. Leah’s Dream dominated that affair on the front end, and Starlite Mission was shuffled back through the middle portion of the race. She had trouble angling into the clear in the lane as rivals in front of her shifted about, but she was closing with good interest once she finally found an opening. Rosario has ridden her well in the past, and the slight drop helps.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 7: WHISTLING BIRDS (#4)
I found this to be one of the most confusing races on the card. Merely identifying a morning-line favorite was a struggle, and I don’t even have much confidence that I’ve sorted that out properly. Playwright and Big Gemmy participated on Saturday, so they will scratch out of this spot. Among those who are likely to go to post here, Ro Bear may be the horse to beat off his runner-up finish to It’s All Relevant last time. If you believe the Beyer Speed Figure, he has a significant advantage. However, I tend to think that the TimeformUS Speed Figure of 98 is a better indicator of the quality of that field. He’s still a major player off that number, but he doesn’t deserve to be a very short price. I actually don’t think he’s far more likely to win than is Ten Twenty Nine. The James Ryerson gelding beat an overmatched field in the slop last time, but prior to that, he had finished just a length behind Ro Bear at this level despite not getting much pace to close into. I’m using him at a price, but my top pick is Whistling Birds. This horse may not go off at his 8-1 morning line, especially if there are scratches, but he’d be interesting at even half that price. He got the job done in his maiden win at Aqueduct two back and then ran very well behind the talented Spun to Run at Parx last time. He’s earned some competitive speed figures and still has room for improvement. Furthermore, progeny of Jimmy Creed do well over wet tracks, and he is likely to encounter those conditions Sunday.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 9: HUNTING SEASON (#9)
There is plenty of guessing to be done in this finale. Private Beach will scratch after breaking her maiden on Saturday. I’m not particularly interested in Restructure, who may inherit the favorite’s role in this spot. She lost in a weak field last time and may not be at her best going a sprint distance White Mischief will also attract support, but she disappointed in her debut last fall and has not been terribly impressive in her morning drills. Therefore, I’m left with first-time starters. With the scratch of Liza Jambalaya, the one to consider is Hunting Season for Shug McGaughey. This barn isn’t known for its work with firsters but can pop with one every so often. This Pioneerof the Nile filly is out of Kentucky Oaks third-place finisher Flying Spur, who herself is out of the brilliant multiple Grade 1 winner Lakeway. They paid a lot of money for her as a weanling, and she appears to be working smoothly while not being asked for serious speed in the mornings. I get the sense there may be some ability here.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6