by David Aragona
The feature on Sunday’s card is the Grade 2 Ruffian, which goes as the 8th on this 10-race card. The headline attraction in this race is clearly Unchained Melody, the impressive winner of last summer’s Grade 2 Mother Goose. Something went wrong with her in the Alabama and she has been sidelined ever since. She returns from the layoff here with blinkers added off a series of encouraging workouts, but this is no easy task. She is likely to face a stiff challenge from Holiday Disguise, recent winner of the Grade 3 Distaff; Faypien, runner-up in last year’s Grade 1 Test at Saratoga; and new Chad Brown acquisition Pacific Wind, who comes off a visually impressive allowance score at Keeneland last time. I picked Unchained Melody, but she better be ready to run a strong race off the layoff.
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 9 - 10
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 10 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 13 - 1 - 12 - 3
RACE 2: HOLLYWOOD CAT (#5)
The likely short prices in this race appear to be somewhat dubious. English Dancer may go favored off the strength of her series of efforts against open allowance company in Kentucky and Florida. She was facing a better field going a mile two back, but her last race is of some concern. She was the overwhelming favorite that day at Tampa and came up totally empty. Now she drops in for a tag. Tiz R Bella figures to get some pace to close into, but her first race back off the layoff was incredibly dull, so she’s hard to trust. Emiliana’s Hope put forth a career-best effort in her return last time, but is hardly trustworthy. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Hollywood Cat at what should be a square price. Six furlongs may have just been a bit too short for her when she returned last time, as Jose Lezcano reserved her well off the pace in the early going. She made a mild rally in the stretch and figures to step forward. Her 3-year-old form was good, as she ran well twice at Saratoga before getting compromised by a poor trip in her 2017 finale at Belmont.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7,8
RACE 5: INTO THE BREACH (#7)
The two Chad Brown runners are likely to vie for favoritism in this competitive maiden race. Course Correction finished powerfully in his debut at Keeneland, nearly catching his stablemate after making a sustained run. He will be awfully tough to beat given any improvement. Azzedine was facing a slightly weaker field at Aqueduct last time but nevertheless ran well and should not mind the stretch-out in distance. I’m using both of them, but I’m most interested in a horse returning from a layoff. Into the Breach was last seen nearly 11 months ago when finishing second behind the talented Rocketry. While he got a good trip saving ground on the rail early in that race, he had to wait for room at the quarter pole, allowing the winner to get the jump on him. When he finally got into he clear, he displayed an impressive turn of foot. He’s been off for a long time, but Kiaran McLaughlin has great numbers with returnees like this. Over the past five years, he is 11 for 33 ($3.83 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6,8
RACE 6: TIBR (#4)
Breaking the Rules may go favored here, despite the fact that his debut win hardly suggests that he’s among the fastest runners in this race. However, people like to follow these Shug McGaughey horses on the theory that they will improve with experience, and that’s certainly possible. I just don’t see value in betting him. Pop the Hood is the obvious alternative. He returned to the races in February with a solid effort in the slop, despite getting caught down on the inside for much of his trip. He’s capable of better than that, but he now has to deal with another layoff. I’m using him, but there’s an interesting new face in this race that I want to consider. Tibr has made all of his prior starts on turf in Great Britain, despite the fact that he possesses a distinctly dirt-oriented pedigree. He’s by dirt sire Distorted Humor out of a Bernardini dam, who herself is a daughter of Grade 1 winning dirt horse Finder’s Fee. Clearly, Tibr is bred to excel on the main track. He now makes his stateside debut and his first start as a new gelding for trainer Graham Motion. While Motion does not do this often, he has had some success with overseas shippers trying dirt. Over the past five years, he’s started six foreign shippers in scheduled dirt races; two won, and two finished second, with a win ROI of $6.00.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
RACE 9: SECRETARY AT WAR (#10)
He’s probably going to go off favored in this race, but I just have trouble getting past Secretary At War in this spot. Unlike many of his competitors, he appears to be in excellent recent form. His return at Gulfstream in February was encouraging, and he followed that up with a strong effort in the Danger’s Hour last month. Typically a speed horse, Secretary At War was taken farther back off the pace that usual as Junior Alvarado sought to get him cover in behind horses. That didn’t quite work out, since he ended up racing about three wide for much of his trip. He launched a wide, early run to the lead around the far turn, and just hit the front too soon in a race that collapsed late. This time, he should be able to work out a good trip stalking Fox Rules, and I think he’ll win if he runs as well as he did last time. His primary competition could be Snap Decision, but this 4-year-old needs to improve on his seasonal debut, which was somewhat lackluster. A big price to throw into the exotics is Monster Bea, who never really had a chance to close last time when pinned down on the rail and could have more to offer this time.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 10: STORMY RITA (#13)
Pay attention to scratches in this race because all of the also-eligibles would be serious contenders if they were to draw into this field. Within the main body of the field, the two runners likely to take the money money are Headfirst and Skyler’s Lil Cutie. I strongly prefer Headfirst out of that pair. She faced a decent field of maidens last time, and hung on reasonably well after showing newfound speed early in the race. I believe she’s the horse to beat, mainly because you need too outside of the main body of runners to find attractive alternatives. Obviously, if Andretta draws into this she becomes a prohibitive favorite, but she would require 3 defections. I’m more interested by Stormy Rita, who needs just one scratch to advance into the race. Her dirt form is decidedly unspectacular. However, she does have significant pedigree to move up on turf. Her sire is solid turf influence Stormy Atlantic, and her dam, by Elusive Quality, is a half-sister to Group 1 winning turfer Aljabr. Based on breeding, it’s clear that turf is supposed to be her preferred surface, and she finally gets a chance to run over it.
Win/Place: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,3,10,12