PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 13 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 4 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

Likely favorite Marketsegmentation (#3) has never put forth a bad effort. I thought she ran a bit better than the result would suggest in the Endeavor two back, when she might have moved too soon. Then last time Irad timed the move perfectly as she got up on the wire of the Sand Springs. She’s now stepping up into a tougher spot, and might need a step forward to beat this field. That's not the best value proposition at a short price. I prefer Chad Brown’s other horse Consumer Spending (#2). She was somewhat unlucky in the Lake Placid when last seen, as she always traveled in the 2 to 3-path during a time when the rail path was a significant advantage at Saratoga. She returns from a lengthy layoff but she’s still a bit underrated and this barn excels off these kinds of freshenings. My top pick is Contemporary Art (#4). This filly showed ability right from the start for the Chad Brown stable last year, just missing on debut in a strong race for the level. She came right back to improve in her second start before getting thrown into a tough assignment in the G3 Saratoga Oaks. I’m not sure she really wants to go that far anyway. She returned this year for Christophe Clement and did everything you’d want to see off the layoff. She was a little fresh in the early part of that race, but she showed good acceleration when asked. She did get a bit goofy late, but had enough in the tank. I expect her to step forward here, and note that she possesses the tactical speed get a forward trip in a race lacking pace.

Fair Value:
#4 CONTEMPORARY ART, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

Christophe Clement holds a strong hand in this maiden special weight. Mondego (#3) figures to go favored. His debut at Gulfstream was excellent. He showed good early speed from his rail draw, setting a strong pace. He got challenged and passed in upper stretch, but battled on gamely all the way to the wire, just missing in the end. He again drew the rail last time and Rosario instead elected to try rating tactics. He seemed to settle pretty well, but was unable to display the necessary turn of foot in the stretch. That was also an unusually tough maiden even, won by the promising Operation Torch, who contests today’s first race. He might benefit from going back to a more aggressive style here without much speed signed on. Yet I prefer Clement’s other runner at a better price. Bel Ami (#1) didn't look like much on debut at Tampa when he just ran around there at one pace. Yet he took a big step forward when dismissed by the bettors in his second start, launching a strong stretch rally to just miss behind stablemate Mondego. He validated that improved form on synthetic last time and now gets back to the same distance on turf at which he nearly won two back. He drew a great post position, and seems to be figuring things out, race by race.

Fair Value:
#1 BEL AMI, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

Expand the Map (#7) has to be considered the horse to beat in this 7-furlong optional claimer off her second-place finish at this level last time. Yet I thought she was supposed to win that race given the pace setup. She got there in the last furlong and was run down by her stablemate. I actually like the slight turnback in distance for her. However, she figures to be overbet for these connections with Irad Ortiz climbing back aboard. Candle (#4) comes out of the same race and is another who figures to appreciate slightly less distance, having run well sprinting last year. There are also some intriguing runners coming off layoffs. Fortineno (#3) showed promise at Saratoga back in 2021, but I wonder if they’re just trying to get a prep into her going shorter before stretching her out again. Party On Girl (#6) isn’t coming off quite as long a layoff, but still hasn’t been seen in over a year. The good news with her is that Chad Brown has great stats off extended layoffs. I know she wasn’t beating much over in England, but I was pretty impressed with her last effort in January going a mile. She seems like one that would be suited to this distance and picks up Flavien Prat for her U.S. debut. I wonder if she could get somewhat overlooked in the face of the other Chad Brown runner, but I think she’s a viable alternative. I also want to use the other foreign shipper who gets in off the also eligible list. Clitheroe (#13) displayed an impressive turn of foot when she broke her maiden off the layoff last May at Lingfield. She subsequently placed in a stakes before finding some tougher spots later in the year. Now she launches as U.S. campaign, switched to the barn of Graham Motion, who excels with these moves. Seven furlongs seems like the perfect distance for her to get started.

Fair Value:
#6 PARTY ON GIRL, at 8-1 or greater
#13 CLITHEROE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

This is a really interesting maiden special weight event where I think the likely favorite is vulnerable. Financial Advice (#4) figures to be the clear-cut public choice after taking money in a live maiden race on debut back in February at Tampa. She put in a pretty nice effort behind Juniper's Moon, who came back to finish third the Grade 3 Florida Oaks next time. However, this filly got a great ride and trip from Jose Ortiz that day, saving ground early and tipping out seamlessly in upper stretch; just seemed to hang in the late stages. Now Irad Ortiz takes over, but he can’t ride much better than his brother did, and she could take more money due to this switch. Highland Grace (#7) could also take money as she ships up from Gulfstream, where she finished a good third in her most recent start. That was a strong maiden event for the level, and she’s improved with every start. My top pick is the other Chad Brown trainee Prerequisite (#6). Her debut looks disappointing on paper, but the running line is misleading. She was always pretty far back and had dropped much more than 5 lengths behind around the far turn and into the stretch. The jockey appeared to let the race get away from them a bit, but once asked for run this filly was really powering through the stretch. Her fastest eighth of the race was actually her last one as she was quickly making up ground on the third-place finisher across the wire. She’s bred to get better with added distance, since her dam is a full-sister to Homeland Security, a marathon stakes winner. I get the sense there’s more ability here than it might appear, and she figures to be a much better price than her stablemate. I also want to use another second time starter coming up from Gulfstream. Like my top pick, Meow Meow Hiss (#8) did more running in her debut than the running line might suggest. She rated off the pace early in the two to three-path, and was trying to make a run through traffic in upper stretch. The winner basically ran off the screen and looks like a future stakes horse for Chad Brown, but this filly kept trying to work her way into a photo for fifth. She didn’t take much money that day, but clearly showed some affinity for the surface, and may do better getting away from that chewed up Gulfstream turf course. Jimmy Jerkens is 9 for 60 (15%, $2.40 ROI) with all second time starters over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 PREREQUISITE, at 4-1 or greater
#8 MEOW MEOW HISS, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 9

This License Fee seems particularly wide open, so I don’t want to default to the short prices. Star Devine (#10) can obviously win if she shows up with her best effort. However, she’s settled for plenty of minor awards in her career, and I didn’t think she had a major excuse last time in the Giants Causeway. She was wide on the turn, but still had chance in the stretch and wasn’t really finishing at the end. Now with Irad Ortiz taking over, I don’t expect her to be much of a price. Minaun (#4) might be a more interesting horse to use out of that race, since she was far back in the early stages and had to weave her way through traffic late. The 6 furlong distance figures to be more suitable for her. Bubble Rock (#8) is more interesting to me as another Keeneland shipper. She ran well in her return from the layoff, setting an honest pace before getting run down by the classy Gam’s Mission. I don’t mind her turning back to a sprint at all, since she was successful doing this early in her career. Yet I want to get a little more creative in this competitive affair. Hot Fudge (#7)showed affinity for turf as a 2-year-old. She ran better than it might appear over this surface on debut, and then really appreciated getting back on turf in the Steward Manor, putting in a strong late run to get up for second. That 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure was solid for her age group, and she’s obviously progressed since then. Her recent dirt races this winter suggest that she’s in great form, and I like that Linda Rice is now giving her another chance on grass. The price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#7 HOT FUDGE, at 9-1 or greater