PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   10 - 1 - 11 - 9
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   5 - 6 - 8 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 1: OAKHURST (#9)
Diamond Hands is obviously the horse to beat as she seeks to improve on the pair of minor awards that she’s earned in her first couple of starts. She looked like she needed the experience in her debut when she just stayed on mildly over a yielding turf course at Saratoga. Yet she took a step forward last time, just missing second behind the very impressive Haughty after getting impeded by that rival at the top of the stretch. She was certainly flattered when Haughty returned to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday. Among those with experience I think she’s most dangerous. Yet I want a first time starter here. Some may be interested in Ever Summer, who goes out for the dangerous duo of Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario. She’s well-bred as a full-sister to stakes winner Speaktomeofsummer. She’s obviously a threat, but my top pick is Oakhurst. Chad Brown has a pair of fillies in here and I much prefer this first time starter. She’s by underrated turf sire Mr. Speaker, who wins with 15% of his turf route starters. The dam was a stakes winner on turf and she has produced a decent turf winner, who won as a 2-year-old. Chad Brown has a positive ROI with 2-year-old maidens debuting in turf routes at Belmont over the past 5 years. I loved this filly’s workout at the OBS Sale earlier this year, in which she displayed an efficient turf stride.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,5,8

RACE 3: CAROM (#1)
This wide open claimer pits a few known commodities at this level against some notable class droppers. While I respect the form of horses like Hieroglyphics and Outrageous Bet, I think they’re both stepping up in class despite returning for the same claiming tag. I want those dropping down in class out of some tougher optional claiming events. Journeyman might be the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the claim for the dangerous Tom Morley barn. He ran a career-best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure over this course last time, but he got a great trip that day, just stalking along the rail before staying on at one pace. Perhaps this is just a realistic placing, but it is a little surprising that he’s dropping in class off that effort. I would also consider Conviction Trade, though his recent form is of some concern. He’s been tried over a variety of distances recently but his performances have been steadily declining. This is a better level for him but he’s not the easiest horse to trust. I’m instead going with Carom. He also comes off a poor effort, but perhaps he just didn’t care for the quirky course at Kentucky Downs last time. He obviously wasn’t traveling well that day and Florent Geroux did the right thing in just easing him through the last quarter mile. That race was run during a time when the Saffie Joseph barn was in the midst of a cold streak. Yet the barn has been heating up lately. Over the past 3 weeks, Joseph is 19 for 53 (36%, $2.74 ROI) at all circuits and is even picking up his share of winners at NYRA recently. Carom could be the controlling speed from the rail, which is always dangerous going 1 1/8 miles on the inner course.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 2,5,7,8,9

RACE 4: HUNGRY KITTEN (#7)
Among those exiting the Waya, Orglandes and Always Shopping are the two who figure to attract the most support. I didn’t think Always Shopping had much of an excuse that day, as she was allowed to get away with glacial early fractions and still didn’t have any answer for eventual winner My Sister Nat. Orglandes ran the better race, as she had to launch a run from last and still was able to get up for second. She did just follow the winner but she might be rounding into form for Chad Brown after a stop and start beginning to the season. They’re both contenders here, but I’m interested in Hungry Kitten at a better price. This 5-year-old ran like a horse who needed a start off the layoff last time out at Saratoga. She was always outrun that day while trailing behind a very slow early pace. Her prior starts over conventional route distances have always been pretty ordinary, so I’m not concerned about that result. She comes alive when the distances stretch out to marathon distances, and she’s getting to go her preferred 12-furlong trip here. She finished a good second in this race last year, and I think she’s going to take a big step forward in her second start off the layoff for Shug McGaughey.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1 with 2,4,6

RACE 5: GUNTON ROE (#7)
It appears to be all about the firsters in this intriguing maiden special weight event going a mile on the dirt. Some of the top juvenile trainers on the grounds have horses in this affair and a few of them appear to be live. Beyond Best may be the one to beat for Todd Pletcher. This son of Curlin is out of a dam who was stakes-placed on turf, though there is solid dirt pedigree in this female family. This chestnut colt has been training well in the morning, staying on at the end of his drills like one who really wants route distances. I prefer the Christophe Clement pupil, Gunton Roe. This son of Gun Runner cost $300k as a yearling and is out of a dam who was stakes-placed routing on dirt. I like the recent workouts for this chestnut colt. He worked well with the experienced 3-year-old filly Brattle House back on Oct. 3 and galloped out nicely by himself. Then he was working much easier in company with the maiden Ruthenian last week at Belmont. I like the way this horse travels and Christophe Clement can certainly have them ready to fire on debut. Among those with experience, the only one I'd use is Torpedo Run. He was green in his debut and has trained much better since without blinkers.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6

RACE 8: CHOCOLATE BAR (#10)
Buy Land and See got an abysmal trip and ride in the Belmont Turf Sprint last time. Perhaps he wouldn’t have made the early lead, but his rider made no intention to get him forward from the start, and the blinkered Buy Land and See fought the restraint for four furlongs. When he finally was asked to run in upper stretch he found traffic and his race was basically over at that point. I like the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs for him, but he figures to be among the favorites here. I view Buy Land and See as the horse to beat, but I was hoping to bet him back in a tougher spot than this where he might get more overlooked. Turn of Events has something to prove from a class standpoint, but he’s in great form right now and figures to work out a favorable trip sitting right up close to the pace. I don’t want to discount his chances but I do believe there are some better horses in here. I’m intrigued by the Mike Maker horses in here. Artemus Citylimits will probably attract support off his third-place finish at this level last time. He closed very well to just miss and is obviously improving now that they’re focusing on turf with him. However, I’m not convinced that he’s quite as good going 7 furlongs. I prefer Chocolate Bar at a bigger price. Don’t be deterred by his last race, since he was pulled up at the head of the lane after taking a few awkward strides. I think it’s a good sign that he’s returning in just 4 weeks and he's worked well since that race. Chocolate Bar’s prior form is solid and he’s proven that he can handle 7 furlongs on the dirt, so I don’t mind this distance on the grass.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,9,11
Trifecta: 1,10 with 1,10 with 7,9,11,12