by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 8 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 10 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 11 - 1A - 3 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 9: 1 - 8 - 3 - 7
RACE 2: HOARD (#8) / LIL COMMISSIONER (#5)
This is one of those races where I’m hesitant to take too short of a price on anyone because none of the contenders has very strong credentials. The
morning-line favorite is Johnny Action, and Todd Pletcher does tend to win with this move. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 10 (40 percent, $2.85
ROI) with 2-year-old maidens going from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company on turf. The only problem is that he did no running in
his debut on that surface. Make It Work may have run the better turf race and did so against a tougher field, so I’ll use him. However, I’m most
interested in first-time turfers. My top pick is Hoard, who doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, being by the 6 percent grass sire Super Saver.
However, his dam is by Speightstown, and she is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner and millionaire Request for Parole. This horse was facing
tougher fields in his two dirt starts and figures to appreciate the class relief if he handles grass. At an even bigger price, I also have to give a shot to
Lil Commissioner. While there’s not much class in this runner’s pedigree, his dam was a multiple turf winner, and both of his full siblings won on turf.
That’s good enough for me.
Win: 8
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5,8 with 2,3,5,7,8
RACE 3: ARCHANOVA (#4)
This is more of a play against heavy favorite Madefromlucky than it is a strong endorsement of my top selection. I just feel that Madefromlucky is going to get overbet in this spot off his win in the Greenwood Cup. Sure, he ran well that day, but I think you have put that win in proper context. He was beating a pair of horses – Testosterstone and Let Me Go First – that don’t really want to go that far, so the margin of victory exaggerates the overall strength of his performance. Scuba was another of the runners beaten by Madefromlucky at Parx, but he clearly didn’t show up with his best effort that day and may have still been feeling the effects of a taxing run in the Brimstone in his prior start. I thought both he and Archanova ran well at Saratoga, and did so against a horse, Hard Study, who has proven his quality against tough competition. Archanova really responded to the stretch-out to a marathon distance last time, and I view him as a more trustworthy option than Scuba, at what may be a better price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
RACE 5: FRANCIS FREUD (#11)
At first glance, this seems like an unusually tough race for this level, but all of the top contenders have some holes in their form. The runner they’ll
all have to beat is Captain Gaughen, who goes out for the always-dangerous Jason Servis. He was competitive against much tougher company over
the winter at Gulfstream, and he’s won going this distance at Belmont in the past. However, he hasn’t been seen in more than six months, which is a
concern even though this barn does well off layoffs. The steep drop in class doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The Pace Projector is predicting that
Tiznoble will be the controlling speed, but he has to prove that he can handle this shorter distance. I’m also somewhat troubled that he was a vet
scratch Sept. 10 and hasn’t registered a workout since then. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Francis Freud. You can’t deny that this
horse has really improved for his low-profile connections in recent months. He ran well despite getting wide trips in both of his starts at Saratoga,
and then last time, he just got out too late when facing a solid group at Monmouth. I’m hoping that Hector Diaz can use what speed he has to place
him relatively close to the pace. I think he fits quite nicely in this spot, and he’s going to be an overlay.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,6,10
RACE 7: SWEET AUGUST LADY (#1)
Others have more proven sprint form, but I’m most interested in the runners coming out of the ninth race on Sept. 1 since I think that was a tougher
spot than this one. The obvious horse out of that spot is Munchkin Money, who was taken out of her typical style to chase the pace while racing two
to three wide throughout. It’s not as if the pace totally fell apart, but the winner did get a better trip than her. I think she’ll be okay turning back, but
the runner who really intrigues me out of that race is Sweet August Lady. When she last went a one-turn mile at Belmont, she showed acceleration
that we just didn’t see from her in a pair of starts around two turns up at Saratoga. Last time, she was slightly hampered after the start and ended up
getting taking way too far off the pace. Horses just weren’t closing from that far back at that point in the meet. Furthermore, Chad Brown has
awesome numbers with his turf turnbacks at Belmont. Over the past five years, he is 16 for 45 (36 percent, $2.94 ROI) with that move. At a bigger price, I also want to use Carry Your Heels somewhere in my wagers. She got a wide trip when stretched out to two turns last time and could be a player here if she runs back to her effort at this distance two back.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8,11
RACE 9: IMPACT PLAYER (#1)
I know this horse isn’t going to be any kind of generous price, and I’m aware that it’s typically bad practice to bet a runner who is going to get bet off
dirt form on a switch to turf. That said, I’m a big fan of Impact Player, and I just think he’s very likely to beat this field. It may seem like an odd move
to switch him to turf given how well he ran on dirt in his debut, but there is real evidence that this may be his preferred surface. After all, he worked
so impressively over the synthetic track at the Ocala Training Center in the spring, and he’s bred for grass. City Zip is a top turf sire, and his dam has
produced two turf winners. Additionally, his dam is a half-sister to Candy Ride, who set a world record for 1,600 meters on turf in Argentina.
Watching Impact Player’s debut, he definitely has the long, loping stride of a turf horse. Perhaps he’s not a great bet, but he’s a likely winner.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,8 with 2,3,6,7,8